New MAN's forecasts
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SPEAKING at the British launch of MAN'S 281 and 321 models last week, Richard Ide, recently appointed director of the VAG (United Kingdom) heavy commercial division drew attention to "an undertow of far reaching change (for the British cv industry) which is about to surface.
"Where else would you find indigenous truck producers selling a combined annual volume of less than 7,000 units?" he asked; and "Where else would you find 1,100 heavy dealers involved in the over-16ton business selling an average of 18 each week — how can you live on that?"
Tongue in cheek, he wondered if manufacturers had previously been making too much money or that they had suddenly become "super efficient".
More seriously, he suggested that "perhaps they had not been doing as well as they might." He could think of no other reason for "real" commercial vehicle prices having risen less than half as fast as inflation over the last five years.
"I think we have all accepted that volume growth in this decade will be more pedestrian than we have become used to," he said.
"The hard truth is that much of the infrastructure that has been built up by the truck supply industry has been based on volume and market share forecasts which in most cases have proved to be a mirage." But John Jackson, sales manager of MAN-VW Truck and Bus, was prepared to make some market forecasts for 1983. He expects to sell 500 of the new 321 and 281 tractive units next year.