The Future of Vehicle Production
Page 32
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Pr HE huge output of commercial vehicles, in both the goods and passenger fields, from British factories is, at present, divided between export and home demands in the ratio of 2 to I. It is, however, important to consider what is likely to happen in the matter of sales in the reasonably early and more distant future. Already this year's quota of vehicles in both classes has been cut from 95,000 to 80,000.
On the goods side, there has been a considerable reduction in the number sold to hauliers or placed on order by them, and, so far. this is not being compensated for by any large call from the Road Haulage Executive. Only in the ancillary field is there anything like a good home market.
In respect of passenger vehicles, both coaches and buses are not selling so well.
Export orders appear to be reasonably good, but these are subject to fluctuations, and it is difficult to forecast what the position will be like in a year or two; on the other hand, the supply of vehicles to overseas markets from the U.S.A. is not likely to be great—in fact, rearmament may well reduce it considerably, but competition from certain other countries may increase.
Effects of Rearmament In Britain, again, rearmament is bound to exercise a considerable influence, not only because of the shortages of essential materials, which are already being felt, but for the reason that fairly large numbers of types of a military or semimilitary nature will undoubtedly be required within the two or three years during which the effort will steadily increase. It seems, therefore, that the supply to meet home needs will diminish during this period, so that the number of old vehicles in service will again increase. After the fulfilment of the demands for military and other essential purposes, there should be, for at least a year and probably much longer, an insistent appeal for urgent replacements, which would, no doubt, extend also to units and smaller spares.
Naturally, the whole procedure which we visualize must depend upon whether or not the build-up' of armaments results in a reasonably peaceful solution of our difficulties or in more active hostilities than those now in being. In the former case the position of the commercial-vehicle industry in respect of the absorption of its productive capacity should be quite satisfactory, but whichever way the cat jumps, the industry is not likely to be idle, except in as far as reduced production may be enforced by shortage of supplies.
Possibilities of Mobile Works Meanwhile it is interesting to look even further ahead and consider other ways in which commercial vehicles may be employed. One might think that almost all activities had been covered, but only last week we dealt in some detail with an interesting drum-making factory which in itself requires the employment of 30 vehicles of various types. If the idea of the mobile works gains more adherents, then this should be a fruitful source of demand for a considerable number of vehicles which may deviate little from standard designs. except in respect of their bodywork and equipment. Even during the time of rearmament the mobile factory may well gain ground, for a works which could be moved from place to place in the event of war might well be invaluable.