Future Prospects.
Page 9
Page 10
If you've noticed an error in this article please click here to report it so we can fix it.
1.—The Extent of the Use of Commercial Vehicles.
BEFORE IT IS possible to make any kind of estimate or forecast as to the price at which vehicles are likely to be obtainable after the war, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry, ' the sphere of the retailer, and all such matters, we must first of all form our own conclusions as tq the probable extent of the use of commercial vehicles. Some estimate Of the size of the prospective market is absolutely essential as a preliminary to the formation of any other opinions bearing upon any branch of the industry. There are -some who believe that when the war is over there will be a tremendous rush for vehicles, and that manufacturers, despite their extendedoutput, will, for a long time, be behindhand with deliveries. There are others who take a gloomy outlook and anticipate a long period of depression. Let us consider, as far as it is possible at this time, the various factors bearing upon the matter.
Eliminating Flies in the Ointment.
If we take, on the whole, an optimistic point of view, as we feel justified in doing, it must still be admitted that there are a fewsflies in the ointment. It may be as well to begin by extracting the flies before we attempt an analysis of what remains. First of all, we have the disquieting factor that we are never again likely to get fuel at the prices which obtained a few years ago, and that upsto the present we have no definite assurance that war prices may not also be peace prices, or that matters may not even become worse rather than better. If we consider the ease of a heavy vehicle covering only, say, six miles to the gallon, it is evident that a rise of sixpence per gallon in the cost of fuel, representing an increase of a penny per mile in running costs, may make all the difference between profit and loss. It may also make all the difference as to the decisions at which we ought to arrive in respect of the motive power to be adopted in the generality of cases. Undoubtedly, the petrol prospect, considered alone, is such as to give gratifying encouragement to those who have always upheld the admitted merits of steam vehicles, or appreciated the great potentialities of electric power as supplied to haulage on the road.
Possibilities of Alcohol.
In this matter of fuels, however, the war has Lanett 'us a good 'deal, and has led us into directions which will ensure the production of very considerable supplies of petrol substitutes. The maintenance and further enlargement of these supplies are in our own hands. We can, if we like, allow things to drift back into the old position, leaving ourselves entirely idependent upon the petrol importers. We can, on the other hand, develop still further the considerable supplies of benzOle which will be assailable as.soon as the demands for high explosives fall off, and we can follow the examples of France and Germany in utilizing alcohol in certain spheres. It is not for an instant suggested that the lastnamed fuel is likely to be obtained at reasonable prices and in quantities sufficient to influence the market frow crops grown within the 'British Isles. Our land is too expensive and our Climate is not good enough. Both in France and in Germany the growth of alcohol crops has been dependent upon sorneyhat artificial cpnditions. In Germany, in particular, it was really a phase of military preparations. The movement was subsidized to increase the interest taken in potatoes and beet, and to keep men upon the land who would otherwise have drifted into the cities. We must then look upon alcohol as a factor of somewhat indisect value to us in the fuel situation. There are, however, many parts of the world in which alcohol crops can be grown at very low prices. If the market for motor vehicles increases consider-. ably almost everywhere, it will help us very much ifthe self-governing Dominions, many of the Colonies, and a number of foreign countries can be made selfsupporting in the matter of motor fuel. It is quite possible, and simply means the production of alcohol in big quantities, and at a price notably lower than the local cost of petrol. The use of alcohol so produced would probably involve the use also of a percentage of benzole or of some other ingredient, as alcohol alone is not a good fuel in an engine constructed for petrol.
Designing the Engine for Alcohol.
The development of vehicles with specially-designed alcohol engines is a doubtful expedient, because it would mean departing still further from a standardized model. Consequently, where alcohol ought to be used at all, it ought for some time to come to be used as a part of a mixture. Even so it will help to maintain, the fuel supplies of the world, and so to leave available for use here a greater proportion of the output of the wells, and also to free tonnage to bring us whatever percentage of our motor fuel we may have to import. We cannot in the immediate future look to homeproduced fuels to supply all our needs, because we hope and believe that those needs will extend very materially and very rapidly. Nevertheless, ben.zole and kindred fuels, helped by the production of alcohol in suitable countries, can amount in the aggregate,to a quite sufficient supply tonikt as a brake on any tendency for petrol to-soar to absurd figures. We need not, therefore, take. too gloomy a view of the future of the fuel situation, or anticipate permanent paymentssunOer th,is heading sufficient to neutralize the various marked economical advantages of the commercial motor as against the older forms of traffic.
Destrictivz Taxation.
The other disquieting factor is also not beyond control, and the greater the number of vehicles in use the stronger is the position of the motor owner as a
controlling influence. The proceeds of the petrol tax.for the. time being have been diverted from their original object, namely, the improvement of the roads. Sitnultaneously, a precedent has been established in .favour of local taxation of certain types of traffic for the maintenance of local highways. There have, moreover, been agitations engineered in certain daily papers against motorists as a class, doubtless partly, if not wholly, inspired by the desire in due course to make motor owners the subject of heavy taxation as a means of raising, revenue.
To counter any tendency of this sort, what we need
is thorough organization among all those interested in the use of motor vehicles. We want wholehearted co-operation among users, and also among manufacturers, with a view in each case to resisting restrictive or antagonistic legislation. The interests of users and manufacturers are not always identical, but in this particular direction they are the _same. Both groups alike wish to make it possible for motors to be operated cheaply, and there is no reason why they should not pull together. The case is a strong one. Limitedtaxation of industrial vehicles, by taxation of the fuel or some other means, may be justifiable, at least temporarily, while roads originally built for the older form of traffic are being improved up to modern standards. Taxation of trade vehicles
for The purpose of raising revenue is completely unjustifiable because it represents a restriction of trade and a brake upon progress, tending to prevent theadoption of labour-saving machinery and to hinder improvements in our means of communication.
Our weakest spot is, perhaps, the tendency of various sections of the motoring community to blame one another when no one need be blamed at all. The owner of a motorcar is a little bit apt to enlarge upon the road-damaging proclivities of the heavy motor vehicle. This habit is partly due to a lack of knowledge, which leads him to confuse a motor tractor with a heavy road engine, and to tar both with the same brush. When any section of the motoring community is in danger by reason of prospective taxation, the other sections ought to stand by it. It is quite wrong to imagine that the commercial vehicle owner is likely to be let off easily, because the private car owner is heavily taxed, or vice versa. Successful action against the one group would almost certainly turn out to be preliminary to a strong attack upon the other, and if motoring interests allow themselves to become a house divided against itself, they will have to stand all the taxes that their opponents may suggest as being applicable to them. Gwen proper unanimity, and backed by the very strong case that exists, there is no reason to fear that taxation need ever become so considerable as to represent an important retarding influence against the development of trade motor transport. The difficulties in this respect that stand in the way of the public-service vehicle are much greater, but even those should not prove insuperable.
Development of Haulage Contracting.
We come next to an ingredient which at first sight we might mistake for yet another fly in the ointment. This is the prospect that, with heavy income taxes and with the results of the war to wipe off, a big percentage of the trading community may be unable to afford the purchase and use of motors. The point here is that, even if this be true, they will still less be able to afford to do without meter vehicles, because these represent a positive economy in time, labour and money. The prospective lack in many quarters of liquid assets seems to point to great possibilities in the way of development of haulage contractors' businesses. If these are worked on a considerable scale, economies in maintenance and in the cost of supplies can be effected such as will enable a contractor to make a comfortable profit while charging the small trader no more than it would cost him to own and use his own vehicle, and this without subjecting him to the comparatively large initial expenditure involved in purchase outright. The bigger the haulage contractor's business becomes, the larger are the economies that he can effect.
He can offer certain advantages, inasmuch as, if the van allocated to some particular trader break down, a relief vehicle can be sent out without delay. The owner of a single machine cannot provide against this contingency short of the purchase of an extra car that is not under ordinary conditions necessary to his business. While the end of the vsar will doubtless see many people in difficulties through lack of liquid assets, there are plenty of others who have been doing very well, and some of these will realize that the s establishment or enlargement of haulage-contracting businesses represents an admirable prospect of a very good return for their money.
A Traffic Revolution in Progress.
Up to the outbreak of war, the trade traffic, even in the largest and most civilized centres, had not been converted from horse to motor to the extent of much more than per cent. In many districts, even in the British Isles, the change had not gone as far as 5 per cent., and in a large number of important areas in other parts of the world it is doubtful whether it has c40 reached 1 per cent. If we compare these estimates with the corresponding figures in respect of publicservice vehicles in the largest centres—and notably in London, where the change from horse to motor has for some years been practically complete in respect of 'buses and cabs—we realize that a complete traffic revolution ultimately eliminating the horse from all large centres of population, and largely replacing it in country districts, is inevitable, and is already in progress. We see, moreover, that what has hitherto been regarded as a large output for trade vehicles will in the future be considered almost negligible.
First of all, we have to replace well over 90 per cent. of the trade traffic of the world, and after that we have permanently to perform the duty of improving the breed of the commercial motor and replacing not only those that are worn out, but those that become obsolete in type, and, therefore, too extravagant in use to justify their continued operation. The war has interfered with this great revolution, but it has rendered it all the more urgently necessary. A comparative shortage in horses cannot be remedied in a few months by prompt action, and labour will never again be available at the old price.
The Sphere or the Horse.
The rate at which the change can take place is, however, dependent on very many factors. Up to the present we cannot fairly regard the whole of the remaining horsed traffic as subject to instant displacement as soon as an adequate number of motor vehicles are ready. At one end of the scale we undoubtedly have large numbers of horsed vehicles still in use with no justification. Particularly is this true where such vehicles are used for work which, either in its present form or with proper distribution, could be covered in a number of fairly long open runs, and involves a comparatively small percentage of the working day spent in loading and unloading. The ideal for the motor is, of course, a long, continuous out journey, fully loaded, a rapid process of unloading and re-loading at the terminal point, and a straightaway home run again under full load. The worst possible" condition for the raptor is the class of work which involves standing for 95 per cent. of the working day effecting small deliveries or loading up small parcels, with the other 5 per cent. consisting of slow running through dense traffic. Under sudh conditions' the work done by the motor is not appreciably greater than the work that could be done by a horsed vehicle in the same time. Consequently, to get full possession of this sphere, the motor must be available at a lower price than the horse and van, or at least must work out cheaper when operating costs, as well as first costs, are taken into account. Almost every decrease under either heading of costs means progress which justifies a further step in the revolution from horse to motor. Lower first cost for a vehicle of equal quality entails a lower charge for interest, and also for depreciation. The rate at which the great change is justified in taking place is then partly dependent on the progress made by the commercial motor industry itself, partly again upon improvements in tyres and the availability of cheap fuel, and partly upon the cost of labour.
(To be continued.)