Political Commentary
Page 61
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Loser Takes All
By JANUS HARSH things are so seldom said about the rail-ways in official circles that the recent outburst by the Minister of Transport sounds something near to blasphemy. The British Transport Commission,' said Mr. Harold Watkinson, must understand that the Government's plan for helping them was " not a soft option," but a challenge. If the railways and the railway workers did not answer the challenge by making the plan work, the railways would have to be 'broken up, .sold and disposed of."
From -his' tone,the Minister might almost have been cutting the Commission off with .a: shilling. As, in fact, he was merely threatening to cut them off with upwards of .£250rn., they are not .unduly worried. They know thai the Government are more likely than themselves to come under the hammer in the event of failure.
In a White .Paper published last October, the Government have gone on record as accepting, almost whole, the pattern that the Commission hope to impose on their future up to 1970. A memorandum from the Commission, published as an appendix to the White Paper, anticipates an increasingly triumphal progress, with deficits diminishing each year, until profits begin to be made by about 1961, and rise to a steady level of £50m per annum.
The memorandum does not speak of a challenge to railway workers; nor do the Commission suggest that their purpose in seeking a temporary loan is to Provide themselves with a soft option. They have a natural inclination, however, to make the option as soft as possible, and begin by laying down a list of somewhat remarkable conditions that must all be fulfilled before even the Commission would underwrite their own plan. The list, in its way, is as formidable as the stipulations upon entry to heaven laid down by Saint Athanasius.
Carte Blanche on Rates
Whether the Government accept the conditions in their entirety is not absolutely certain. The Minister, in his present mood, would not be prepared to accept the first, which assumes "that the Commission will not be prevented from adjusting their charges without delay at any time to cover increases in costs, should they consider it expedient to do so." An adjustment of charges always means an increase.
• The Minister has told the House of Commons that the limit of charges has been reached by the Commission for the carriage of many categories of goods. Any further rise in rates would mean a drop in the volume of traffic carried. Proof of what the Minister calls this ugly fact is provided by the complaints from hauliers and traders who have transferred traffic to the railways because of the fuel shortage, and find that they have to pay a good deal more. • The second condition laid down by the Commission is also concerned with rates. They demand freedorn to operate on flexible systems of charging, and to determine on a reasonable basis the scale and scope of the services to be provided. To a large extent they have this freedom. It was given them as a result of an interim decision of the,Transport Tribunal, and, although' this is not entirely to the satisfaction of the Commission, they agree that they can make do with it.
The key word would seern.to be "flexible." The
Commission plan to do wonderful things with rates. hi the near future, they have in mind a policy of price restraint, largely in order to cope with the Minister's "ugly fact," The period of restraint is obviously not intended to last long, for the Commission hope that the financial benefits of their freedom will amount to some £20m. per annum by 1961 or 1962.
Perhaps wisely, the Commission do not suggest what change in external circumstances may make possible this change in fortune. Their competitors and customers may like to have a guess. The second condition laid down by the Commission turns out to be something very much like the first, namely, an increase in charges. The Minister has condemned higher prices that lead to lower revenue. He might also be expected to deplore higher prices in general.
The third condition might almost have been designed to make the road operator envious. The necessary resources of all kinds, say the Commission, must be available to enable them, in co-operation with industry, to carry out their plan for the mOdernizatiOn and re-equipment of British Railways according to programme. The plan involves spending £1,200m. over 15 years, and the Government may have approved it in a state of optimism.
Commission's Warning Since then, the demand for capital expenditure has increased at the same time as the demand for economy has become more strident. Perhaps the Government would like to reduce the figure of £1,200m.If so, they have had a warning in advance from the Commission that any money snatched from modernization might be lost from the adVances to be made under the more recent
legislation. • Conditions four and five seem to be aimed at preserving the status quo and relieving the Commission of financial worries. Government policy regarding the framework within which the Commission operate must remain as at present, say the Commission, while reserving the right to make representations on this very point. Finally, special action must be taken as soon as possible to permit the Commission to preserve an atmosphere of proper financial discipfine.
The Minister's recent statements are unlikely to indicate a change in official policy. When the Commission's 'conditions were made public, the Government accepted the accompanying plans as practical and necessary, although not necessarily subscribing to all the Commission's views. According to the White Paper, the national interest -required that the future-of the railways should be assured. "As carriers of passengers over long distances, and of suburban passengers in large numbers to and from work, and as carriers of bulk freight, the railways are essential,, and will continue to be so for as long as can be-foreseen."
In the light of this, the Commission may not take too seriously the lecture read to them by the Minister. They are assured of their loan, and it is pleasant to be able to lay down the conditions upon which one will accept. Let the road operator take what comfort he can from imagining, that it was a belated attack of conscience on his behalf that emboldened the Minister to be rude to the railways.