Plenty of fuel for 20 years
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THE FIRST general session of the International Road Federation Congress in Sweden this week was chaired by former Transport and Road Research Laboratory director Alec Silverleaf of the United-Kingdom. The panel representatives from the USA, Italy, France and Tanzania considered the theme "Future Society and Road Transport".
A key contribution was made by Prof Peter Hall, late of Reading University, now of the University of California, who believes that fuels now being developed will be very cheap in relative terms by 1990.
According to Prof Hall, energy suppliers will be more than adequate between now and the end of the century and the industrialised world will not be paralysed through shortage.
The development of energy conservation devices for road transport should save in excess of 15 per cent in his estimation.
The greatest savings will accrue on the American continent because of its present "large fleets of inefficient vehicles," he said.
Prof Hall said that experts disagree on the supply and cost of energy resources; the opinions expressed were his own. He submitted the views of a contemporary expert, Prof Shakson, who believes that road transport cannot be expected to conserve any more energy if present operating patterns continue.
However, according to Prof Shakson, the movement of people, businesses and leisure activities from large to small self-contained conurbations could show an aggregate savini with the consequent reduction ii public transport.
In his view we cannot look fo the development of electri vehicles in any strength beton the year 2000.
Prof Hall said that operatim costs would certainly continui to rise, mainly because in creasing labour costs — an ele ment of standing charges which he estimated account fo about 70 per cent of total operat ing costs.
He told the delegates however, that there would be compensatory factor in this ris( with "a massive rise in pro ductivity".
Returning to his theme, Pro Hall said that driver aids will leac to economy in fuel usage.
He also believes there will be E development in a pay-as-you-gc tax system, with one tax sourc€ rather than a mixture of vehicl€ taxes.
According to Prof Willoughby the future of road transport doe: not depend on new technology but in the development of infra. structure. "A realistic road pat. tern is more likely to save fue and reduce costs than the development of energy saving engines and fuel devices,