My money's on O'Mahoney!
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Who will be this year's LDOY champion? One man who thinks he has the answer is CM's Art Editor JAMES MILLEN. Having scrupulously weighed up recent form of all 293 competitors he decided . . .
"OF COURSE," I said. "it's really a question of mathematical probability. It's the same in horse racing or football, for instance-you can always work out who's likely to win. They don't always do it, but that's not the point; on past performance you can compile an assessment of the probabilities." They must have thought that sounded rather good. "All right," they said, "it sounds easy enough, so you'd better do it." -Do what?", I asked. "Work out the LDoY winners," I was told. -It should make interesting reading-about 1,500 words or so. By-line. of course: so you'd better get them right." They walked away smiling.
That's how I came to be writing this story. Now all I have to do is to name the winners of 10 classes of the LDoY competition finals and pick out the Lorry Driver of the Year. What a triumph if I get them all right I
What started my reasoning was this: at various rounds I noticed that some class winners were successful despite collecting piles of penalties-something like 150, for instance. And sometimes there were only two or three other drivers competing. -He won't stand much chance at Bramcote." I thought. And it rather niggled me that other men drove superbly in large classes to record scores of as little as 50 or BO penalties but wouldn't reach the final-because they were not class winners. That's really how I became interested in the mathematics of the thing.
But to work. Unfortunately there is not very much form to get one's teeth into. Few of the drivers at the final will have competed there before, but I am sure that knowledge of the
course is very important and perhaps more so the benefit of actually having competed under "final-day" conditions. So I started off by marking my score card with the names of those who had been in previous finals.
Then I came to the real graft. This entailed going through the results of all of the 29 rounds held this year and noting on my card against each driver's name the score with which he had won his class at his eliminating round, It is these numbers which will form the basis of my forecasting, Since I have 10 classes to consider, the best policy seemed to be to start at the beginning, Class A, and work through the programme class by class.
For many who will be watching at Bramcote this year it may add a little spice to have the statistics handy for reference, so I shall set out the "form". As the drivers will be identified by the numbers which appear in the official programme, I shall use those rather than names for this purpose. All numbers shown in bold black type will record penalty scores of less than 60 points-the number of these from class to class varies considerably, but any man who registered such a score in his round must be in with a good chance in the final. Summary: On this year's farm there is nothing to choose between J. W. A. Hole (10) and J. L Devine (12). A tough scrap is expected from these two, but I take Ruislip man Hole to win by a whisker. The 1967 Class A victor, J. D. Borrill, is in the field, but his winning score in the Leeds round this year was not a particularly good one. W. McGarrigle Ross (20) won well at Londonderry and should do well, but he has a long way to travel this time and may get beaten out of a place. I fancy R. C. Oldham (23) also of London Postal Region, for third place. J. Burks (26) could upset this forecast.
Selection: J. W. A. Hole. Forecast second: J. L. Devine. Danger: R. C. Oldham.
Summary: Last year's "8" winner E. Lister (42) is in again with a great chance. His score at Manchester was very respectable and he is bound to fight hard to hold his crown, But I can't see him holding J. Frith (31) who won brilliantly at Liverpool with only 38 penalties. Another good performance is expected from B. Pullinger (28), but J. Frith should win well. Selection: J. Frith. Forecast second: E. Lister. Danger: B. Pullinger.
Summary: Sgt. J. F. Cronin (58) won his South Wales heat in stupendous fashion with only 36 penalties (0-5-18-5-8). But he might well have to improve on that fine score in this final to stop the winner of this class in 1 967 and 1968, J. C. Kendrick (57), from completing the hat trick. His score in the final last year was an unexceptional 101, but in 1967 he went clear with a magnificent 23. Irish entry J. E. Marsha (71) won his Castlereagh preliminary in devastating fashion with 39 and should go close. Also in with a chance is F. S. Sharp (79) of National Carriers. Kendrick was again in great form with 39 at Liverpool this year and his experience and consistency should see him through to a third great triumph.
Selection: J. C. Kendrick. Forecast second: Sgt. J. F. Cronin. Danger: F. S. Sharp, Summary: On form this will be the most open and fiercely contested event of the day. No less than 24 of the 33 competitors won their heats with less than 80 penalties, which makes this Bramcote's classiest field. In 1967 this final was won with a score of 62-a score bettered this year by 14 of those taking part. The '67 winner, C. G. O'Reilly (114) will be struggling to regain the title this time, but may
have too much to do. Two of these drivers went over the 40 mark in the preliminaries, both, strangely, with the same surname. J. Baker 1991, who had only 35 penalties when winning at Ruislip, is strongly fancied and G. Baker (101) with 37 at York is bound to do well. I also like the look of J. C. Rowbotham (106) who won well with 40 from a big field at Leicester. But I take last year's winner of this class to hang on to his title, This man. S. G. Shepherd (118) has the experience to win well possibly, as last year, with the best score of the day-then an incredible 20 points.
Selection: S. G. Shepherd. Forecast second: J. Baker, Danger:J. C. Rowbotham.
Class El 119. 186 127. 92 135. 150 143. 294
120. 77 128. 181 136. 73 144. 46 121. 127 129. 69 137. 41 145. 70 122. 99 130. 77 138. 54 146. 95 123. 134 131. 55 139. 59 147. 36 124. 92 132. 62 140. 57 148. NCVV*
125. 79 133. 94 141. 60 149. 82 126. 79 134. 64 142. 68 150. 62 Summary: B. A. Absolom (150) is a consistent competitor who won this event in 1966 with 53 points. But I fancy that score will be well beaten this time. A man with the ability to do it is J. A. Cockerill 1147/ who had a fine 36 at Northampton, which could prove good enough to win this final. Manchester victor S. G. Neate (137) is in with a sound chance and may prove next best. Expect a strong challenge from R. G. Wood (144) who could lift the title for London. Selection: J. A. Cockerill. Forecast second: S. G. Neate. Danger: B. A. Absolom.
Class E2
151, 106 159. 82 167. 48, 175. 116 152. 85 160. 123 168, 57 176. 56
153. 107 161. 50 169. 86 177. 98
154. 112 162. 62 170. 49 178. 73 155. 116 163. 46 171. 96 179. 59 156. 52 164. 65 172. 81
157. 70 165. 64 173. 100
158. 165 166. 53 174. 92
Summary: In a class packed with tanker drivers it is difficult to picks winner here. Shell-Mex and BP Ltd. has supplied two of the past three winners and with 15 entries in this field of 29 they have every chance of succeeding yet again. Last year's winner S. Chapman 11761 is a Shellman who will do well, but might find it difficult to get much below the 58 with which he won in 1968. A more likely winner. I think, is S. Bailey (163) who chalked up 46 at York, but he may be stretched to overhaul E. A. Lilly (156) whom I expect to make the early pace for Texaco. 0. J. Sheridan (161) will be getting to work on (or rather in) a Guinness. but he may be beaten out of a place by F. Conway {1681. Selection: S. Bailey. Forecast second: E. A. Lilly. Danger: F. Conway.
Class Fl 180. 170 188. 121 196. 62 204. 275 181. 196 189. 90 197. 94 205. 147 182. 112 190. 70 198. 92 206. 133
183. 100 191. 97 199. 81 207. 80
184, 195 192. 69 200. 84 208. 205 185. 152 193. 140 201. 54 186. 93 194. 93 202. 112
187. 183 195. 118 203. 56 Summary: The winner of this class has been the Lorry Driver of the Year twice in the past three years. The 1966 champion A. J. Stanaway (181) is in the field and will doubtless set a hot pace, but his 196 penalties in his St. Austell preliminary were not convincing. I expect the winner to come from five drivers capable of scoring less than 70, but placing them is a difficult task. Rockware Glass Co. Ltd. has two in with sound chances-W. E. Rhodes (190) should go well, but I expect him
to be overhauled by workmate L. E. Barnett (203), Both may get pipped by Edinburgh representative T. Morrow (201) of National Carriers, who is taken to win. Another National Carriers man, N. C. Harrison 11921, might take a place. but I prefer the chance of Leicester man H. Thornley (196).
Selection: T. Morrow. Forecast second:
I, E. Barnett. Danger: H. Thornley.
Summary: The form man here is A. B. Barratt 12321. whose 48 penalties at Grimsby seem to put him rather out of the reach of most of this field. I make him the best bet of the day. Most likely to follow him home are the Harvey Bradfield and Toyer pair. D. J. Witney (230) and
D. F. Jones (235). Expect Petrofina driver T. W. Cattell (2141 to set the early pace. Selection: A. B. Barratt. Forecast second: D. J. Witney. Danger: D. F. Jones.
Class G 236. 142 244. 125 252. 55 260. 97 237. 70 245. 60 253. 82 261. 61 238. 94 246. 97 254. 43 262. 84 239. 78 247. 85 255. 128 263. 112 240. 68 248. 101 256. 72 264. 80 241. 94 249. 57 257. 104 242. 81 250. 66 258. 151 243. 61 251. 110 259. 62
Summary: Sam Gray (251). the 1968 overall champion, won his Class Fl title last year with 108. His heat win at Castlereagh, this time was with 110, a score bettered this year by most of the drivers he meets here. I confidently take B. P. O'Mahoney 1254), brilliant winner at Newcastle-under-Lyme with only 43 penalties, to land this prize. I do not look beyond C. E. Bennett (252) who scored 55 at Leicester for second place. Third man could be A. J. Reid (249) who won the Aberdeen preliminary.
Selection: B. P. O'Mahoney. Forecast second: C. E. Bennett. Danger: A. J. Reid.
Class H
265. 58 273. 334 281. 89 289. 164
266. 159 274. 92 282. 84 290. 83
267, 207 275. 44 283. 108 291. 110
268. 77 276. 125 284. 52 292. 196
269. 168 277. 98 285. 103 293. 79
270. 116 278. 87 286. 104 271. 106 279. 122 287. 106 272. 105 280. 97 288. 78 Summary: Ruislip champion T. W. Field 12751 is the man they have to beat here. His best score of 44 is superior to any of the winning scores in the Class H final in the past four years. I am sure he can come near to reproducing that form on this occasion and win well. I expect two tanker men to push him hard. These are A. Marshall (284) of Petrofina. a good winner at Newcastle upon Tyne, and N. E. Squire (265), the Texaco man who showed them the way at Weymouth. R. F. Jocham (288), the London entry, and Oxford winner R. Ellis (2931 look the pick of the rest of the field.
Selection: T. W. Field. Forecast second: A. Marshall. Danger: N. E. Squire.
These, then, are my considered selections for the individual classes. Having spent a good deal of time in working them out, I have become fairly well convinced that several of them will prove accurate forecasts. Most particularly I like the look of J. C. Kendrick in C. A. B. Barratt in F2 and B. P. O'Mahoney in Class G. Kendrick, I feel sure, will walk away with the Class C prize for the third consecutive year and probably with the Chairman's Award of Merit -also for the third year on the trot. He is a great driver without question.
But though Kendrick has performed outstandingly well in his own vehicle at the past two finals, he has not on either occasion been placed in the first three for the Lorry Driver of the Year title. It must be assumed that he is not at ease handling vehicles to which he is not accustomed. For this reason only I do not see him as the 1969 champion.
The supreme title, I am convinced, will once again go to an artic driver. I have probed the records of the past four finals and was not surprised to discover that on each occasion an artic man took the top prize. The evidence seems to show that heavy vehicle men find it easier to drive light vans than vice versa. From 1965 to 1968 the champion has been from H, Fl, F2 and Fl respectively. I do not look for that trend to be reversed this year.
Assuming that A. B. Barrett does well enough to win his class, it seems to me not unlikely that we shall have another champion from F2 in 1969. But I shall tempt providence, appeal to the law of averages and trust to the stars that Mr. B. P. O'Mahoney will do himself and me a favour by winning his class and bring glory to Class G. to Newcastle under Lyme (his preliminary centre) and, presumably, to the old country.