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(yarning: watch he Japanese.
• • by Brian Chalmers-Hur
IIS MONTH Japanese heavy mmercial vehicle sales in e UK exceeded homexluced vehicle sales for the st time . . . Happily, this is where near the truth, but it utd easily happen, although Dbably not in the immediate d foreseeable future. It's an arming thought.
Not many of us has too ich time to study vehicle Dduction statistics, but a lot information has now been ade available about the rformance of Japanese mmercial vehicle anufacturers and the time Ls come when we must make ne for serious thought.
Toyota, Nissan (Datsun) id Honda have all had great ccess with their car sales in e UK. And don't think immercials couldn't have a milar success. BECAUSE -IEY COULD.
In 1976 Japanese cv -oduction reached a new vel of 2,771,516 units — an 18 .?.r cent increase over the preous year's figure. Although us includes everything from ght vans to units over 10 ms, further figures available low that in the 7 tons and hove category production as declined over the past two ears. However, the 3-4 ton mge production for 1976 was 54,618 units; 89.6 per cent 'ore than in 1975.
This shows a great source of :rength for the industry in ñs range and could be their asis for attack in the UK iarket. In the first six months of 1977 cv output was 1,473,298 compared with 1,318,418 in the corresponding period of 1976. This was an increase of 11.7 per cent — mostly lorries with a carrying capacity of 3 tons or more. It is an indication of the Japanese determination to become a major supplier of medium and heavy-weight vehicles.
The two companies to watch are Toyota and Nissan (Datsun). They weren't affected by the 1975 recession and they have now established a solid manufacturing facility and gained expertise in marketing their products in the UK.
Passenger service vehicles are not exempt from concern because gains were made here as well, notably by Toyota. This firm made 15,585 units in 1976 out of a total Japanese bus production of 42,139, a 16.7 per cent increase on the previous year.
The first six months figures for 1977 show a production of 24,566 for buses and coaches, which could well give an even higher percentage increase for the whole of 1977. And the Japanese commercial vehicle market was not particularly bouyant in 1976.
However, 1,631,363 commercial vehicles were sold on their home market. The real question is: what happened to the rest?
Answer: exports of Japanese commercials increased by 38.3 per cent in 1976 to a grand total of 1,152,609 units. Although Asia was the largest market, the number of vehicles shipped to North America increased by 53.8 per cent — 336,158 units.
In 1977 production of commercials is anticipated to improve by about 3.5 per cent or just under 3 million. A slight increase is anticipated in their home market requirements, but the remainder will be exported.
However, in 1978 output is expected to increase by 3.4 per cent to over 3 million — thanks to export sales.
For the past 10 years the Japanese home market has averaged around 1.7 million and is not expected to rise radically beyond that.
This means any increase in production must be for export. But where to?
The market share of Japanese light vans in the UK increased from 4.9 per cent in February to 7.4 per cent in June. Because of pressure from the SMMT and also the Department of Trade and Industry talks arranged in Tokyo on September 6 considered the rising trend of Japanese commercial vehicles in the UK.
We tried to persuade the Japanese to impose a voluntary sales restrictions to avoid the political consequence of a disrupte domestic industry in the U1 But it is understood that n constructive decisions wet made.
Datsun (UK) says it has n immediate plans for importin Nissan commercial vehicles the UK. But Colt Cars Ltc importer of Mitsubisl produced-cars has, howeve set up a truck division. For OA years this division has bee surveying the market and as result anticipates announcir a new 5.5-gross-tonne and 7.5-gross-tonne range to tF UK at next year's Show at tf National Exhibition Centr The complete range 1 commercial vehicles includir 32-ton tractive units could l available within five years.
Also Toyota is introducing twoand three-ton range • the UK next year, and likewii there could be a possibility extending the range which at present available in Japan Therefore could 1978 be ti beginning of the influx medium and hea) commercial vehicles fro Japan to the UK?
The Economist Intelligen Unit Ltd has just issued report for the third quarter 1977 and quotes furth detailed information on ti subject of the Japanese c and commercial vehic manufacturers.