For road haulage the 1980s was a decade of extremes
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— from devastating slump, to record-breaking boom. But what of the new decade, bringing with it the Single European Market, a technological revolution and a tide of Green legislation? We asked experts from around the industry for their expectations of the 1990s ...
Frank Griffin, United Road Transport Union
• A decade of transformation faces us, with rapid change in transport, particularly road transport.
We know that Europe is going to have an even greater impact; we have felt the force of the EC well before 1992, and when the Channel Tunnel link is created that pressure will increase. The regulations coming out of Brussels, like the drivers hours regulations which have become legislation for workaholics, are incomprehensible in their complexity.
Maybe the bureaucrats in Brussels, producing documents and legislation which are nonsensical and suit no sections of our industry, will learn to listen to that vital cog — the driver.
The decade will be affected by the dismantling of the training boards. The naive hope that the TEc will take their place is both misguided and damaging to British industry, particularly to the transport industry, which needs an effective programme of training for skilled workers.
We need a really effective infrastructure investment, and we need to build a truly integrated transport system. But what we need is not what we are likely to get.
Stephen Joseph, Transport 2000 • Environmental pressures on the road transport industry are going to increase in the 1990s. What one Commercial Motor correspondent has referred to as "urban and civic issues" — the impact of heavy lorries in town, road damage, noise, operating hours — are as much about the environment as is the greenhouse effect.
Current trends in road freight transport (bigger lorries travelling further) are adding to environmental problems, from inappropriately big lorries in towns to contributing to the greenhouse effect. This isn't reflected in the taxes that lorries pay. At the same time, other transport trends are crowding the roads: underfunding of public transport, out-oftown developments, company car tax relief. The road-lobby solutions of more roads and heavier lorries won't work: you'd need a 844-lane motorway from London to Edinburgh., just to park the Government's predicted vehicle population in 2025.
Commerical Motor already reports widespread acknowledgement of the need to run cleaner, Greener vehicles and to reform the culture of criminality that is still too prevalent in parts of the industry. Environmentalists will also be pressing for policy changes, including the need to tax lorries (and cars) to reflect their real environmental and social costs; to match vehicles to their environment (more local bans on oversize lorries and probably pressure for urban fringe transshipment depots); to increase Government funding for rail and water freight (especially for combined transport); and to introduce some bus reregulation so that councils plan to reduce car use.
This does not mean the end of road haulage. Environmentalists want to see a clean, efficient road haulage industry doing the local distribution work it is most suited to, and which makes up the bulk of the industry today, while long distance hauls go by rail — including combined transport. And it does also mean a better, bigger bus industry.
Jack Mather, NFC
• Road transport's fortunes in the 1990s will depend upon the strength, the growth and the diversification of the economies we serve. The moves towards a greater Europe will have a stimulating effect on the industry, particularly as the barriers to Eastern Europe fall.
The prospects are exciting, but we will also have to face the consequences — cabotage, harmonisation, further liberalisation — particularly in those countries such as Germany where there is still a high degee of regulation. We will have to recognise moves to more enviromentally friendly vehicles with impact on size, weight, noise, restricted access and delivery time in urban areas. The same pressures of a larger geographical marketplace and the Green influence Will raise the importance of rail freight and intermodal operations. The Channel 'runnel will have an enormous impact on movement of goods to and from the Continent.
There will be a continued sophistication of transport with computers increasingly on board vehicles for communications and technical purposes, and also for operational and accounting functions at depots.
Above all there will be continuing emphasis on people in the industry, prompted by the demographic changes which will introduce a shortage of youngsters; the need to train to new levels of skill and sophistication; the input of the Social Charter and the general trend towards social ownership. It will be a very interesting decade.
John Rees, European Commission Transport Directorate
• The scene is set for important changes in EC road haulage this decade. The Community has decided that the international sector will be completely freed from all but qualitative controls from 1993.
At the beginning of the year the rules for entry into the profession were established; hopefully they will make an important contribution to raising standards all round. Last month the decision was made to make the first tentative steps towards cabotage that will end with cabotage being completely liberalised. The Council now only waits for the opinion of the European Parliament to settle on the system regarding rates for international haulage; the outline decision is that these should be based on the free fixing of prices.
On the technical front much has been accomplished already — only the length of road trains remains to be fixed.
Against this background the market for road haulage should both expand and change. The latest results that the Commission is getting through market observations show that growth of international business is already reflecting the benefits to trade and industry of the Single Market. It is also clear that transport is becoming more involved in the logistic process.
But the industry has to be careful that public opinion does not lead to a reversal of these trends. It is increasingly important that vehicles and the way they are driven improve, and that the industry is seen as responsive to public wishes.
Opposition to lorries is sometimes founded on very sketchy evidence, but in some areas that opposition can be successful.
Don Wilson, Besco Bodies
• With 80% of goods in this country moved by road transport we can feel proud of our position as an industry without which the economy would be in serious trouble.
Why is it then that we come in for so much criticism? Perhaps our critics have their priorities seriously misplaced. I believe the 1990s will give those of use who have worked so hard in the 1980s the opportunity to consolidate our position as a key industry which has helped the nation recover from the dark days of the 1970s.
The commercial vehicle bodybuilding industry has led the way on a few issues which will seal our success in the 1990s. Firstly, quality. The bodybuilders quality code has evolved in the 1980s and will become the standard for the industry, not only here but also in Europe.
It is significant that most leading vehicle operators are seeking to improve their perforrnance and are following the lead of the bodybuilders. The quality slogan of the 1990s will be total quality management.
A significant factor in the 1990s will be aerodynamics. If a 20% saving can be made on fuel costs the average transport operator can improve profits by up to 50%.
There are enormous opportunities to be seized. If I am asked to write a similar few words in 1999, I think I will say: "The 1990s have been wonderful.''
Peter Foden, ERF
• By the year 2000 it is likely that there will be fewer vehicle manufacturers in Europe than today. The ones which are left will be stronger, and their products will be more expensive and sophisticated to meet the stringent environmental measures which will be imposed on the industry by the EC during the next 10 years.
I cannot see vehicles being bigger or with much greater payloads. The use of nontraditional materials in both cab and chassis will reduce the weight, but this is more than likely to be offset by the use of noise shielding, larger silencers, improved braking systems and the like.
Our customers, the operators, are in for a tough time in meeting all the environmental and safety standards which will be thrust upon them. They will need first-class and instant availability of parts and service and minimum down-time to compete. The biggest problem, however, for the industry especially in the UK, is the ability to operate goods vehicles effectively using a road system that is way behind the needs of the industry and the British economy.
Garry Turvey, FTA
II The latter years of the 1980s saw transport in the limelight as never before and there doesn't seem to be any doubt that this new-found prominence will continue throughout the 1990s. Few, no matter where they operate, will be able to avoid the scourge of congestion — how can we when we are expecting an increase of up to 50% in car mileage by the year 2000?
While expected HGV growth might not be as stark in simple numberical terms because of increased efficiency (and hopefully higher weights long before 1999), tonne/knas could increase by as much as 46% over the same period.
But Europe looms largest in any preview of the 1990s. We have long talked about the removal of national barriers and border restrictions. Soon that will be a reality. Whether you are a large fleet operator within a pan-European conglomerate, a medium-sized firm still contemplating the options, or a single truck operator fending off the challenge of a mainland competitor using one of his country's cabotage permits, road transport will never be the same again.
Jonathan Lawto'i, road transport lawyer
• I am extremely anxious about the 1990s. That anxiety is reinforced when I hear a Licencing Authority interviewed on the radio, talking about the difficulties of controlling the 'cowboy' operator and the need for a substantial increase in the powers of the courts.
I am fortunate in that I tend to meet the better end of the haulage industry. But I am, like everyone else, only to well aware that there is a 'sump' of operators who treat the running of overloaded vehicles which are barely maintained and without the benefit of an 0-Licence as some bizarre extension of 'risk management'.
I see the 1990s as the era of stricter enforcement: a time of increasing checks and extensions of power in various ways. We are already aware that the likelihood is that the police will be able to issue prohibition notices. But nobody has, so far as I am aware, dealt with the issue of responsibility if some officer, for no good reasion, prohibits a vehicle with a highvalue load on a timed delivery.
I understand that the programme to install more weighbridges is already well underway, but I anticipate increasing weight checks with, inevitably, increased penalties.
The Palmer Report may prove to be an irrelevancy in the context of day-to-day operation. Licencing Authorities, whether or not subject to some 'super power' have already demonstrated an intention to exercise greater controls.
I have, over the years, come to believe that the better the operator the more tempting the target for authority — the greater the reputation, the easier it is to serve summonses. The greater the reputation of the company, the more eyecatching is the successful prosecution. . . all of which raises again the problems of 'due diligence' and the patent hostility of the courts.
Alan Jones, TNT Express UK
• We would all like to see a major improvement in the roads situation. However, the marketplace will alway find its own ways of getting round problems and other systems will emerge. Congestion is happening not only on the roads but at airports. This is where the advantage of the integrated carrier comes in, offering doorto-door services by road or air. There is over-capacity in the industry, and I believe there will be a shake-out next year, with fewer carriers in the marketplace. It will be a case of the survival of the fittest.
One or two of the bigger carriers may find themselves vulnerable next year — the problems won't just lie with the smaller carriers.
Bryan Colley, director-general, RHA
• The decade begins with gloomy economic prospects for the UK. It has been a long time since the future has been so difficult to predict, and as transport is very much the barometer of the UK economy, the situation is worrying for the industry.
The UK economy is falling behind its competitors on the Continent — we already suffer a disadvantage of geography in being on the periphery of the market, and have a congested and inadequate transport infrastructure. The good news is that at last the Government has acknowledged this fact and is allocating additional funds.
Set against this, as far as the road transport industry is concerned, the Secretary of State for the Environment has taken up an anti-roads position in putting forward his Green policy. Economic growth will be of more modest proportions than we have seen recently and we are likely to be behind the leading industrial nations of the Community.
Haulage rates in the UK are so low as to be wholly unattractive to predators from Europe, but opportunities should continue on the Continent for UK companies. Many are already there, and given the experience and skills developed over the past few years in this country, profits ought to come from exporting our transport and distribution expertise to the Continent.
The United States experience of deregulation of interstate traffic should be remembered as an indication of what could happen in Europe in the nineties. The top 10 US interstate truckers in 1978 had a 35% market share. By 1988 their share had reached 85%, and the companies themselves had changed completely.
James Cooper, Polytechnic of Central London
• The 'Europeanisation' of many British freight companies, especially the larger ones, will be a key feature of the 1990s. They have a lot of catching up to do.
Until recently most preferred to neglect business opportunities in mainland Europe. But this has now changed as both customers and competitors gear up for the Single European Market.
For the 1990s the outlook is more sober. Our operators are taking a long hard look at their track records. One of their more important realisations is that they work in a domestic market which has a richer portfolio of services on offer than anywhere else in Europe. They are considering the best ways to translate this experience into firm business opportunities on the Continent.
Most will conclude that effective marketing will be the crucial element of business strategy; the hearts and minds of prospective clients are there to be won.
Hopefully no-one will try to take a "British-is-best" approach — this will cut little ice. The right approach will be through well-funded marketing campaigns to show the benefits of modern distribution systems, with an emphasis on the application of logistics concepts and the successful use of new technology, especially in the field of communications.
It will need a steady nerve and a realistic assessment of what they can deliver for UK companies to prosper in an increasingly tough marketplace. UK businessmen must overcome the reputation, often unjust, for taking a short-term approach. Throughout the 1990s they must demonstrate a long-term commitment to European business development to reassure clients that they are there to stay.
Jack Ashwell TGWU
• Experiences in the UK during the 1980s with too many vehicles chasing too few loads led to a rapid downward spiral in rates and a dramatic increase in bankruptcies in road transport.
There are more foreign vehicles than ever in the UK, coinciding with the reduction in our manufacturing base. In 1979 UK hauliers had 55% of the UK international traffic. In the first quarter of 1989 this stood at 43%. These foreign hauliers and others will be free to compete for both national and international traffic from 1993 at the expense of UK hauliers and drivers.
The removal of the restrictions that could interfere with the freedom of the international haulier to provide a service in any member state is seemingly the only priority for government's such as ours. But the Single European Act must take full account of the social dimensions of the Community — and in this context must ensure at appropriate levels of development of the social rights of EC workers.
It is not too late for both employers and employees in the hire-and-reward sector to demand safeguards. As a first step, employers should join their employees in a mass lobby of Parliament on Monday 7 March.
Unless there is the joint demand, Ministers will continue to further the aims and aspirations of the City and ignore the threat to our hire-and-reward section of the Road Transport Industry.
Peter Witt British Road Federation • Overall, 1989 was a momentous year for road transport. The White Paper Roads for Prosperity doubled the existing trunk roads programme in England. Still more importantly, it recognised and amended the impossibly-low forecasts of traffic growth which have been at the heart of costly congestion and the excuse for inadequate investment.
Higher forecasts, which may still prove too low, not only pointed the way for the 25 billion worth of new schemes added to the programme. They will also ensure that the projects already planned will now be built to design standards which will be able to cope with the traffic they have to carry.
Never before has British industry spoken up so forcefully about the economic consequences of under-investment in the transport infrastructure. The CBI's report Trade routes for the future clearly spelled out the cost to industry of bad roads.
Governments in the past have found cuts in capital investment an easy option in times of financial trouble. Continuing political resolve to invest will be necessary. At the start of the nineties, the Green dimension is dominant. It will continue, no doubt settling down into a more balanced and less feverish debate.
Presently, environmental concerns are being used to argue against road investment. Few of the arguments stand up to serious examination.
Land use? Compared with other construction — such as industry or housing —.roads are modest land users.
Pollution? The worst vehicle pollution arises from congestion. A system which keeps traffic moving helps to solve the problem, not worsen it.
Traffic growth? Better to channel vehicles on to modern roads and separate people and traffic. Road investment has nothing to fear from a balanced and objective environmental assessment. Would a change of government produce a change of transport policy? Parties in opposition are apt to say what they think the listener wants to hear. Labour's transport policy is exactly that.
Oppositions which come to power have to face reality — and the reality is our need for a better highway system.
Geoffrey Cave-Wood Haulier
• For many years road transport, both national and international, was a 'Cinderella' industry. But through the eighties we have seen a dramatic change in the way in which distribution has gained a much higher profile for many UK and International businesses.
Quality will be very much the name of the game as BS5750 becomes a standard requirement.
Many companies will seek to link the production and supply chains through closer computer links and we, the transporters, have to be able to open our systems to our clients, and vice versa.
With the abolition, or at least the simplification, of Customs procedures, many of the uncertainties of cross-border trade will be removed. This will mean that manufacturers and traders will be able to count on faster transit times — something particularly relevant to the movement of part shipments where, until now, one consignment has often caused delays to many others.
In recent years lack of space in factories, warehouses and distribution centres has resulted in many companies requiring deliveries to be prebooked. Usually the reason for the lack of space has been the cost of land in the UK.
Such procedures have meant that trailers are often used as mobile warehouses, and obviously the costs of detention are incorporated in the overall transport price, although, often all the costs are not always passed to or borne by the 'guilty party. While the demands for pre-booking are unlikely to disappear, with closer computer links being forged between shipper and receiver, goods should be able to be shipped only on receipt of the delivery slot. In some cir
cumstances the dispatch and delivery link will still be bridged by warehousing provided by the international transporter.
Undoubtedly we will see a growing sophistication in the type of trucks taking advantage of the new lengths, which are unlikely to change before the end of the decade.
Increasing road congestion and environmental pressures must result in an ever growing demand for trucks to become Greener. Certainly added safety equipment such as ABS brakes and lower noise levels will become the norm. More movements will be handled at night, which not only improves productivity, but once again requires greater use of articulated drop trailers.
Suzanne Hinton, SMMT
• Environmental pressures for cleaner, quieter, more fuelefficient vehicles will persuade many to make greater use of public transport, particularly the commuter, but the essential car and van driver — the plumber, midwife, washing machine mender — will still need freedom of movement to carry out their work.
Traffic congestion is a monumental waste of time and precious fuel. Could it be eased by a lower speed limit so that more vehicles would be packed into limited road space? But then wouldn't more vehicles be needed to shift the same volume of goods? Pros and cons would require careful evaluation, especially the effect on the environment.
Vehicle guidance systems still seem a long way off. Will we turn into a society whose behaviour is monitored and controlled by the all-seeing camera, or does salvation lie in the return of the tram? Parkand-ride schemes, particularly in smaller towns, are feasible, providing that frequent, cheap transport exists for coping with heavy shopping and tired kids.
Trucks will be heavier and able to carry greater pay loads more efficiently as the bridge strengthening programme is accelerated. Perhaps by the end of the nineties a road tunnel under the channel will turn us into proper Europeans.