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matters By David Barnett
Manager, Planning and Intelligence Division, RTITB
How trade recession affects road haulage employment
MOST BASIC SERVICE industries, road haulage included, are still feeling the severe effects of general recession although looking forward to better days in the light of the Budget. This article discusses the situation and its causes, especially in relationship to current employment and training; this in turn is examined in the light of longer-term trends in the industry. One significant difference in the present situation, compared with earlier periods of difficulty, is the role of the RTITB. The Board is able, and indeed it is enjoined on it by the Industrial Training Act 1964, to take the wider view of future requirements for skilled labour in the industry which is not always open to individual companies.
It is not difficult to seek the underlying causes of the situation. The level of business for haulage relies on the volume of goods and materials moved within industry, which in turn depends on the general level of industrial activity. The overall index of industrial production actually fell during the first nine months of 1971.
Drop in freight
More pertinently for road haulage, latest Government statistics show that over the last 12 months, for example, home deliveries of steel have fallen by 23 per cent and the tonnage of coal consumed by industry (much of which is moved by road) by 19 per cent.
The last period when general trade recession and high unemployment markedly affected employment in road haulage was 1957/58. However, since the late 1950s successive troughs in the cycle of economic activity have not greatly influenced the continuous expansion of employment in road haulage and, indeed, the number of drivers and other staff employed has until now grown in every successive year between 1958 and 1970. The main problem has always been one of varying degrees of labour shortage rather than contraction. Even now, the contraction is not great in absolute terms.
The most recent statistics issued by the Department of Employment suggest that the number of hgv drivers from the professional haulage industry unemployed at the present time is something less than 6000, about 50 per cent up on last year. However, the vast majority of these are almost certainly in transit from one job to another. The actual rate of contraction in employment in road haulage over the last 12/18 months is probably about 7000, including drivers and all other staff.
Hgv drivers
An interesting side-light on the still high rate of labour turnover in the industry, despite the recession, is that the employment exchange services handle more hgv drivers than persons in any other single occupation in the whole of British industry.
The RTITB has already forecast that by the mid-1970s the number of hgv drivers required by the road haulage industry will rise from the present figure of 125,000 to about 145,000. Thereafter a still greater increase is implied by the agreement that, from January 1 1976, maximum daily driving hours will be reduced to eight, in line with EEC regulations. A great deal of detailed study will need to be undertaken into the implications of this decision and the RT1TB has already set this in hand as regards future training needs.
However, some first conclusions suggest that from 1976 at least 20,000 additional drivers will be required by professional haulage operators. This is additional to the 15,000 extra drivers required by the longterm growth of the industry between now and the mid-1970s. The actual number required will, of course, depend on how the industry organizes itself to cope with new shift-working and rostering problems. Demand by own-account operators might be at least for a further 50,000 drivers.
There is, therefore, a gap to be resolved between present low demand for labour and future potential shortage. In the past, during periods of high economic activity, the industry has been severely handicapped by shortage of labour, especially drivers. This has inhibited the industry's ability to meet rapidly expanding new demands. Part of this problem has been the impossibility of rapid provision of additional facilities for training new drivers in large numbers when they are wanted. This has led to a scramble for such trained men as are already available without ever catching up with the real backlog of demand for skilled labour and, therefore, without putting the industry onto a level of optimum efficiency.
Turnover implications
It is this situation which the industry faces over the next two or three years. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research has recently forecast that high demand for labour will begin to manifest itself again from about 1973 and will build-up through to the mid-1970s. This should be contrasted with the current picture of stagnant demand and high unemployment. One effect of tack of alternative jobs is a marked slowing down in labour turnover. Surveys carried out by the RTITB show that turnover among hgv drivers is normally 55/60 per cent a year, among the highest rates for any group of workers in this country. The evidence is that currently the figure is about 37 per cent. This has enormous implications both now and for the future in both recruitment and training terms.
Most of the labour Movement within the haulage industry is between individual companies but each year permanent wastage (deaths, retirements, switches to other occupations, etc) amounts to about 10 per cent of the labour force and requires about 15,000 men to be newly recruited and trained as drivers.
If we look at the recruitment and training situation in detail we see that the numbers of drivers trained in accordance with RTITB recommendations and specifications rose from about 4000 in 1967/68 to 16,500 in 1969/70. However, with the current recession individual employers have reduced their levels of recrnitment and the number trained dropped to about 13,000 in 1970/71 and seems likely to do little more than return to the 1969/70 level this year. This should be contrasted with Board forecasts that the industry will need to train 15/20,000 new drivers a year and also provide refresher or conversion training for another 25/30,000 by the mid-1970s in order to keep up with permanent wastage and allow for increased demand for labour.
Bridging the gap
To help bridge the gap between short term low demand for labour and the forecast long-term shortage of skilled drivers, the RTITB, together with the Department of Employment, is sponsoring the training of up to 1000 unemployed men as hgv drivers which is to take place at Group Training Associations.
For the slightly longer-term, all the pointers seem to indicate that by about 1974 or 1975 there could well be another scramble for labour by both professional and own-account operators, which could lead to large-scale temporary labour shortages and jeopardize the efficient working of the industry. In other words, the situation faced in the early and midSixties. It would be unrealistic to expect companies to stock-up labour in advance of this situation. However, the problem can be minimized if the industry ensures that when the demand comes, the training facilities are available to rapidly expand the pool of skill on which it will have to draw. These facilities cannot be established over-night.
It is the task of the RTITB to forecast overall demand, establish how far this exceeds what is currently available and make plans for filling any gaps. This it is the Board's policy to do. Thus Group Training Associations now offer places for up to 10,000 drivers a year which did ntit exist three years ago and a similar capacity has been established at new in-company centres. These facilities will, of course, be expanded as necessary in consultation with individual employers and the industry as a whole.
Manpower forecasting
Although it is not too difficult to see the position for the industry as a whole over the next few years, it is considerably harder for individual companies to assess their own situation. This is particularly true of smaller or medium-sized companies. This article has dealt with the total industry picture. A subsequent article will suggest how the smaller haulier can make use of manpower forecasting and planning techniques commonly used by larger companies both within the industry and outside, to forearm themselves against the implications of the developments described above.