The Opening of the Double Year 1915.
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By The Editor.
The year 7915 attracts. It is fraught with so much. Good there must be in it, in the widest sense, hard though it be to apprehend, estimate or foresee. Huge armies will devastate Central Europe for part or most of the year. Official Russia places the most optimistic peace-date at the 31st May, whilst the most pessimistic forecast in Petrograd is the 31st October, both in 1915. We have these views direct from a highly-placed diplomat. We place a large measure of reliance upon them, whilst recognizing the extent of the apparent guesswork that is involved. The growing opinion is that Germany cannot face a second winter.
Calls on British Motor Manufacturers.
We look forward to the first of several twelvemonths of abounding trade for the heavy motor industry. We believe that 1915 will prove a double year in more than a few respects. So much will, yea must, be crowded into it. The ranks of labour, now in so manyg branches depleted for the war, demand the prompt and unremitting co-operation of improved transport at home ; the harassed distributor and merchant call out for double exertions at motor works, to the end that the yawning gaps in their delivery organizations may not stare them in the face too long the willing motor-lorry manufacturer prepares to increase existing output, and the newcomer makes ready his plans for fresh production, the two branches of activity together presaging double the number of finished chassis weekly before 1915 has run its course ; the user who was ruefully counts his reduced and smaller units, the while resolving to become a user in being on a larger scale at the first opportunity. Everything points to an increase of output during 1015, and to the ready absorption of the increase, by not fewer than 200 commercial chassis weekly:, as between, say, July, 1914, and July, 1915. That is not a doubling, we know, unless parcelcars, light vans and vehicles below one ton of load capacity are excluded, but we do exclude such from our calculations. We also exclude steam wagons and tractors, because the preparations for new construetion concern petrol-driven vehicles as to 80 per cent.
Steam, from within its own ranks, will keep ratio with petrol, and will double on itself, or nearly so. Whereas the newer power should put out 200 more large chassis per week six months hence, compared with six months ago, steam may account for another .50 wagons and tractors weekly. Electricity, still in the embryo stage so far as Britain goes, will be advanced. Its early days of growth may .prove to confer upon it a ratio of increase very much in excess of either petrol or steam, but still one which will remain numerically inferior per week to either of the older servants of the user,
Suppliers of consumable stores, of tires, of fuels, of lubricants, of bodywork, and of all types of accessories and fittings, must make ready to follow upon the expansion in trade which the makers of parts, units and complete vehicles are now enjoying. Orders for the Army (transport) and the Navy (aviation, more particularly) will not slacken awhile : that six weeks notice will notle given at the -very earliest before April. It. will not be given to British makers before it has affected those in the U.S.A., and it will not be given to every British maker simultaneously. The accumulation of commercial orders will grow, both for home and export, against those days of relief from the insistence of military demands. Let the supplier of stores take heed, at the opening of 1915, that he is not left behind ; let him doable his twn resources. New trade awaits him.
We may proceed to ask, what of the fall? The c8
fall of the year, the fall in military orders. The two may ceincide. At least, we believe, there is no safety for the user in looking for a fall in price. We wish, for some reasons, it were otherwiw, but we are wholly 'unable to hold out prospects of the kind. It is of small account ; the genuine commercial motor, invariably justifies itself on "all in " cost per annum. The case for its use is now se strong that an increase of 10 or 12 per .cent. on the 1912-1913 list prices works out on a life basis for depreciation of only 120,000 miles, which is on the low side, at anything—according as first cost was, six months ago, £,500 oi £800—between one-tenth and one-fifth or a penny per mile run. Costs will not be doubled, but they must go up slightly, in common with everything else. That factor in the situation can be faced by users with equanimity. The present uncertainty about delivery dates is more serious for users. We cannot hold out much hope that their turn will come to any considerable extent in the first half of the year.
The Dangers of American Impetuosity.
Another direction, in which doubling will be the characteristic, concerns the efforts of American makers firmly to establish themselves in British markets, including Great Britain. We wrote of "Truck Trash from the U.S.A.," in our issue of the 12th November last, and we gauge the general correctness of our references from the fact that the leading American motor journals have gone out of their way to abuse us for what we wrote. Far ho it from us to make the grievous mistake of asserting (or to be so unfair as to do so), that all American-built trucks are poor in themselves, or inferior to the best that Britain can make. We know that there are some very good American trucks--vehicles good enough to stand the bad roads and the vile usage which they receive on the other side of the Atlantic. No tributes can be higher. American truck, however, have hitherto been offered in England, at least so far as the threeton and heavier models go, at prices which were considerably above the prices then ruling for even the hest British-built trucks. We believe that the redoubled efforts of the American makers will bring them many times more than twice the business in 1915 which they obtained in England during 1914. They have made little impressinn over here, so far, except for loads of two tons and downwards. The Americans built truck is no doubt deserving of the benefit. of the argument which we advance in the preceding paragraph of this article, qua higher first cost, and it will no doubt secure favour with some purchasers, due to early delivery. No warning, however, at the opening of the year 1915, can be more appropriately given than that the English user should be. most circumspect in dealing with America, should make a deliberate and wise choice, and should above all be on his guard against the trash from the U.S.A. which will be mixed with much that will get a share of orders.
Finally, we wish to say that, apropos the European war, we attach no credence to the oft-repeated assertion that the Germans will collapse. Hence, in our , own _ calculations for 1915, we accept the, official Russian view, and take October next as the safest date for the likely conclusion of hostilities, and upon which to base any programme. Of our programme, more anon. The present is not the time to disclose it, but it h.as been prepared in all but final detail. The Probable date of Peace is but one of the main factors in a position of uncertainty. The Allies will place armies of occupation in Germany and Austria, for at least a year after Peace is declared. That intention may have far reaching effects.