Openings for Capital : a Corollary to Strike Experiences.
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The outstanding lesson of the recent strikes, which lesson is likely to be enforced by the continued restlessness of employees in many branches of transport, undoubtedly is, as we have several times insisted already, the triumph of the commercial motor. The one-time " ugly duckling" of the moi or movement has been acclaimed on all hands, from the columns of the halfpenny Press to those of Court journals. .There has almost been a volte face, but we do not cavil. We naturally think that the whole of the Press, for once, is on right lines, in that it has not refused to acknowledge the obvious. There has been no reason, in this instance, for any running counter to facts, and the supreme value of commercial motors, on occasions of industrial crises, is now regarded on all hands as a literal truism. This accession of approval has immediately accentuated the demand for the investment of further capital in the business side of the motor industry. It is, we are glad to state, a particularlyclean side, from standpoints of reasonable capitalization and judicial financial administration. The heavy branches of the industry, in their early days, were not handicapped by promotions comparable to the Great Horseless Carriage Co., Ltd., of unsavoury memory, on the private-car side, or by the extravagant disbursement of hundreds of thousands of pounds in respects of patents which afterwards proved to possess little or no practical value. Several of the leading companies have built up their splendid factories and turnover out of revenue, and we should not be surprised to see two or more of these putting their trading results before the investing public during the course of next year. We are in confidential possession of the salient points about their results, and we are certainly entitled to state that they are wonderfully good. These and a few of the other older concerns, however, cannot possibly cope with the multiplying demand for commercial motors of all classes, and it behoves motorcar manufacturers who have hitherto made little more than dilettante efforts to enter the commercial branches, and who have merely coquetted with van and lorry propositions, to move while they may. We announced, three weeks ago, when dealing with the present shortage of production and foreshadowing extensive specialized output in the near future, our acquaintance with the preliminary steps for the establishment of a new group to finance the production of one-ton motorvans at the rate, for a beginning, of 500 vehicles per annum, in England. We are now advised that the finance for this project has been completed without difficulty, and that the backern of the scheme are already engaged upon matters which concern production. This single instance of financial response is satisfactory so far as it goes, but it does not by any means, in our judgment, approach the limits of potential requirements for that one size of model, even after taking account of the very considerable outputs of old-established and successful factories in Great Britain. From data in our possession, for the supply of which we are indebted to individual manufacturers the country over, we are able to state that, expressed as percentages, and taking the year 1905, which was the first year in which the Heavy Motor Car Order of 1904 became operative, production of goods-carrying vehicles in British factories has advanced in accordance with the ratios which follow :— Relative Annual Output ol British-built Ccrrimercial Motors (Passenger-carryirg Vehicles Excluded).
The year 1905 was not, we may remind our readers, the beginning of the motorcar industry in this country. The "Red Flag" Act, so far as it applied to mechanical vehicles weighing less than three tons unladen, was repealed in 1896, and at the date of the coming-into-force of these exemptions—the 14th November of that year—several engineers and engineering firms had utility vehicles under construction oractually running on the highway. Thereafter, particularly by means of the series of competitive publictrials in Lancashire, between the years 1898 and 1901, and succeeding practical work by north-country and other motor-carrying companies which worked under service conditions between the years 1901 and 1904, the movement was brought through the stage of experimental trial to that of practical application upon, commercial lines. Thus, to-day, commercial motors, after some 15 years of pioneer and development work, stand out well recognized in public esteem. These independent road vehicles have gradually beenthrust into prominence by reason of their many unrivalled qualities. It is now perceived, in fact, by the commercial world at large, that they are indispensable under particular conditions. The ratio for 1911 promises to exceed 600. We deliberately place limits upon the uses to which commercial motors can be regularly put : it were folly to do otherwise. " Hot-air " merchants, if the fitness of an American term may be allowed to. justify its application here, are reviving the fatuous cry of 1896—that road-motors will soon carry out alf transport work. That is nonsense. They might, for a few days or more., under stress of roused feeling in responsible circles, discharge the urgent supply needs of the country, in accordance with Lord Montagu's interesting suggestion of last week, for the making of which, as a topic of discussion, he deserves the thanks of all. Personal and financial considerations are sufficient to involve the essentially-fleeting nature of any such philanthropic scheme. Road-carrying must be done on commercial lines, or left alone, if it is to be on an effective or lasting basis. At times of stress, owners must look after themselves and their own interests first ; in times of invasion, the War-Office scheme of registration, which was first officially suggested and submitted in the year 1902, now means little but compulsory purchase. We are satisfied that carrying interests generally, inclusive of railway companies, old-established forwarding agents and the controllers of recently-formed undertakings are well aware that average competitive conditions admit the road-motor to the category of permanent successes under all normal or probable circumstances, but no " frills " are wanted. Whilst commercial motors do not pay, as a rule, on haulage jobs under several of the railway classifications, there remams comparatively-unending call for their employment. Repeat sales would not be so common, and makers of approved types would not be booked up so far ahead with orders, were there any fundamental weakness in the system of road-carrying by commercial motor.
Money is being made out of the standard employment of commercial motors for haulage and contracting work, in mail conveyance and numerous moreordinary applications, and the necessary degree of confidence has now been established to provide guarantees for a return upon the capital invested. In fact., we are inclined to think that the investment of capital in transport undertakings, subject to experienced management and supervision, will show a more-satisfactory return than a corresponding investment in manufacture. The great leap forward, since the year 1909, has been largely due to improvements in rubbertired petrol vehicles. Rubber tires, which cost as much as 6d. a mile on a one-ton van in the year 1902, and ad. for like service in 1902, have had an enormous influence on this progress. They have mitigated the hostility of road authorities, which counts for much : they have rendered motorbus extensions feasible, and have struck consternation into the camp of electrictraction prophets ; they have permitted great increases of point-to-point speed, and at the same time have reduced mainten fl nee charges ; they have allowed dead weight to be cut down by more than 25 per cent., and have thereby increased the percentage of paying load; they have got rid of the old nuisance of noise, which threatened to create widespread opposition throughout the country—especially in resneet of running during the night ; they have given the 31-ton steamer a new lease of life. Above all, thanks to the enterprise, public spirit and thoroughness of their manufacturers, who have stood to lose enormous capital sums and have taken incredible risks, they have largely made the industry what it is to-day. Less than five years ago, had anybody been told that it would be possible to run a one-ton van at a halfpenny a mile for solid-rubber tires, and to run a double-deck motorbus in London at one penny a mile for the same class of tire, they would have been laughed out of court ; yet these figures are achieved, where large contracts are made, and where due care in service is exercised. Now, with mileages and numbers of vehicles growing daily, it, is quite safe to say that the rubber-tire industry also offers a healthy prospect to investors.
We naturally hesitate to put forward definite estimates of returns, but there is no reason why we should not give support to the beliefs of those who are equally in touch with the commercial-motor in dustry in its present stage. of development Manufacturers and motor-carriers, who have "been through the mill," are now showing net profits at rates varying between .10 per cent. and 20 per cent. upon their invested capital ; in two rather-exceptional cases, the profits upon the invested capital are considerably in excess of the latter figure. There are, in some of the motor-carrying cases, the shortages of lean years to be recouped. We are only on the threshold of developments, and new openings for commercial motors are being exploited each month the world over. A bold policy of road improvement and strengthening has been undertaken by the Government as a national matter, and the highways and bridges of this country will undoubtedly be made increasingly suitable for motor transport ; in the Colonies and Overseas Dominions, and in numerous foreign countries, a like policy of road strengthening and improvement has been adopted. Who shall gauge the future, and how shall it be gauged I Can any analogy be drawn from railway experience ? In that branch of engineering and commercial development, which, as everybody knows, has extended throughout the civilized world, and into many parts of uncivilized territory as well, it is scarcely credible, but none the less a fact, that the competitive trials--" races" they were called, in which George Stephenson's " Rocket " won the first prize, took place only 82 years ago, at Rainhill near Liverpool. By comparison, the locomotives of those days were greatly inferior to the commercial motors which participated in, say, the R.A.C. Trials of 1907, yet, from those early railway tests, there was developed within ten years an enormous railway boom in which fortunes were made—and,. by speculation, lost. The years 1911 to 1915 promise to witness a like development in respect of commercial motors, and investors who come in now, whether for the manufacture of vehicles or supplies, or for the undertaking of haulage, ought without doubt to receive handsome and permanent returns. The position exactly is, that no established British maker can give delivery for six months or more, unless in respect of odd vehicles of certain models, and that, in spite of numerous additions to existing factories, supply lags far behind demand. We are prepared to give specific information and advice, on all matters connected with facts and factors in any projects of the kind, so far as we are entitled to disclose information. It is in regard to fresh carrying and using schemes that we are most desirous and prepared to answer inquiries.
Driving in the Country.
London motorbus and motoreab drivers usually handle their vehicles badly--even dangerously— upon the first few occasions of their being sent upon
country runs. They change down too late, and change up too soon ; they travel much too quickly when upon the starting gradient of a declivity whose tortuous course or ending is unknown to them ; and they take grave risks when they suddenly clap on the brakes to save themselves and their passengers. The drivers of country chars-it-banes are generally more experienced, yet they sometimes demand too much from the metal beneath them. Care and steadiness prevent the occurrence of incidents which the best of pluck may be unable to control. We have yet to learn the cause of the runaway which took place in Durham county. This fact remains, and it should be noted by every country driver who finds himself on a strange road at the top of an unknown hill : the only safe course is to stop before starting down the hill, and to engage the bottom or the second gear. Five seconds may be lost ; ten lives (or more) may he saved. Drivers of vans and lorries have corresponding occasion to exercise like care.