CAP says registrations will fall
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It John Watts, senior editor at CAP Commercial Vehicle Monitor, expects new truck registrations to decline by a further 10% in 2003: "Manufacturers are trying to switch the market to longer replacement cycles, so that's going to have an impact. Something else that will have an effect is reduced consumer spending as taxes rise.
I'm thinking here of rising National Insurance contributions and likely rises in council tax as properties are rebanded," he adds. "Fuel prices will increase too if there's a conflict in the Middle East."
If consumers have less cash to spend in the high street fewer goods will be sold, and fewer trucks will be required to deliver them: "If there is a recession, however, then paradoxically that could help the used truck market. Operators may be more willing to buy second-hand because they won't want to commit to long
term agreements involving more expensive new vehicles."
Independent dealer Martin Rhodes agrees that lower new truck registrations could help keep the used sector buoyant. But he also shares the view that desirable, late-registered, used vehicles will be in short supply.
"At present prices across the market aren't as good as they were 12 months ago, but year-old trucks are the exception," says Rhodes. "They're certainly fetching more than the equivalent vehicles were a year back, although three-year-olds are worth less," He believes that independent dealers have a distinct advantage over used truck salesmen employed by franchised outlets: "The former have the freedom to wheel and deal, while the latter have many more constraints placed on them. A lot of manufacturers think they can dictate used truck prices. They can't,"