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Sticking a • ma inc months ago the first signs of
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a shortage of late-year, low-mileage, analogue stock appeared in the classified section of CM as established used de lers struggled to fill their normal ads.
o prizes for guessing what's caused the shortage —Euro-4 and digital tachograph deadlines. In January Phil Holmes, used sales ager, eastern region, at Scania dealership K truck, echoed the sentiments of the used trade when he said:" We sell 60 trucks a month and obtaining replacements is proving to be a real challenge.There's very little about that's dated after 2003 and our stock is way down."
ven logistics specialists remained tra itional by sticking with Euro-3. Royal Mail, perhaps the biggest operation to run commercial vehicles, battened down the hatches. Traditional hauliers, already under siege from foreign competition and legislation, shied away from spending cash on new stock, preferring Euro-3 analogue vehicles often vvell over current residual value. At auction things continue to sell despite the shortage. ProTruck Auctions' Charlie Wright says: "Five-year-old vehicles are doing well; there is a lot of overseas custom. Russian and Cypriot markets want as close to five-year-old stock as possible. It can fetch up to £2,000 more than six-year-old stock."
Not that older stock is suffering; 01registered Daf tractors are stronger on price now than six months ago, he says.
As rare as hens' teeth Independents and manufacturer-affiliated dealerships alike have been affected. Iveco's sales manager Dave Hill says late-year, lowmileage Stralises are like 'hens' teeth'."At the moment you can throw the book out of the window because they are fetching exceedingly good money," he adds.
Dave Cussans, sales director at MAN ERF UK, says it was unable to meet demand for Euro-3 stock with prices hardening as customers extended deals for six to 12 months to buy some breathing space as they waited foi six-month lead times on new orders.
Holmes predicts it will be the third quarter before the used stock situation improves. "That's because a lot of the contract extensions that have been negotiated will expire in September and October," he says.
Long lead times for new stock range from six months to a year, as European-based truck builders cope with orders from operators in the Benelux countries, Germany and Spain, where governments have endorsed and prioritised Euro-5 (CM 15 March).
The British government has now acted, In October,Euro-5 gets its shot in the arm at the expense of Euro-4 with the reduced pollution certificate (RPC) expected to be worth £500 off vehicle excise duty (VED). Iveco and the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) group that can offer Euro-5 welcomed the move.The Italians offer Euro-5 as standard from 1 April 2007.As a manufacturer, though, Iveco isn't sure what the effect will be on its used stock levels. The government's decision comes as a disappointment to the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) camp. Cussans feels the Budget could have gone for pricing Euro-1 and 2 vehicles off the road before endorsing future technologies. Its EGR Euro-5 engine is planned to break cover at Hanover in October 2008.
All agree that the incentive should free up Euro-3 stock but that eventually its value will drop. Daf Trucks marketing manager Tony Pain questions whether the money spent on Euro-3 today will be worth anything tomorrow.
"To achieve the dramatic change in exhaust emissions from Euro-3 to Euro-4 and 5 is an expensive business, therefore price rises of 840% on Euro-3 look greater at first sight. People are already taking the view that [Euro-4/5] residual values will be better in four to five years' time. You won't be able to give away Euro-3 vehicles."
Getting that message across to a conservative industry is difficult, but the first incentive is in place and operators now have a benchmark for what moving up to Euro-5 from Euro-3 will cost.
Digital tachos
The main question for hauliers remains the issue of digital tachographs. Data storage, inaccurate time-keeping (CM 22 and 29 March) and problems recording excessive speeding within the 96km/h speed limit on motorways mean road transport's initial fears have been confirmed (CM 15 March). These concerns moved Vosa to state: "Where driving has taken place in the minutes either side of a single minute in which no driving has occurred, then that minute will also be deemed to be driving activity time. The concern is that the driver has a reduced amount of 'real time' in which to complete his journeys."
Rental companies are proving to be a decent barometer for how the road transport industry is reacting.The decision by Steve Thomas, managing director atThomas's Vehicle Solutions, to hold fire on replacing his Euro-3 rolling stock brought in new business, as rental competitors with new digital stock found its usual customers were not in a position to use them. •