'Truck sales will slide'
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by Cohn Sowman • In contrast to the annual DRI Truck Report, Cardiff Business School is predicting that truck sales will remain flat until the end of the decade. It also predicts a fall off in sales in 1998 and warns that the decade will end with registrations lower than in 1989.
At an ADF conference at the National Exhibition Centre, Cardiff Business School's Paul Nieuwenhuis said that politi
cians will act to maintain the number of truck manufacturers but he expected greater co-operation between manufacturers to cut development costs.
In the long run, said Nieuwenhuis, up to 30% of goods will be moved by rail, matching the Continental figure. This would increase demand for smaller vehicles to take goods to and from railheads, accelerating the polarisation of the market into very large and small trucks. With little or no profit in building trucks, he added, most manufacturers plan to include an aftermarket package.
U Parts factors may face increased competition from franchised dealers due to the changes in Block Exemption. Vehicle manufacturers will not be able to force their dealers to buy only original equipment parts; dealers will be able to stock non-OE parts for other makes.