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Time alone will tell
All over the country the Transport Act is being made the subject of discussion at meetings variously described as courses, conferences, seminars, teach-ins and debates. The main sections are analysed and estimates made of their effect. Advice is freely offered to operators, traders and the general public. Nothing but good can come of these efforts. The only regret is that the operators who do not attend are probably those most in need of guidance.
Activities in which the public can participate may be no more than the tip of the iceberg. Behind the scenes a good deal more must be happening especially in the universities and other seats of learning and even within the Ministry of Transport. Major new legislation provides an ideal theme for theses and for research if only because of the certainty that nobody has dealt with the subject previously.
If the general discussions are any guide to what is taking place at other levels the main focus of interest will be found in those sections of the Act concerned with road goods transport. It would be comforting to believe that the research on this subject at least is being undertaken along the right lines and is calculated to produce useful results.
Not just academic
With quantity licensing there are unlikely to be mistakes. If it ever comes into force plenty of evidence should be available of its effects whether for good or ill. There will be a demand for the information if only from the politicians who have fought over the issue and will inevitably want to assess the results.
Even on this point there is work already waiting to be done. What the politicians will be trying to do is judge between the situation before and after the Act. When this kind of exercise is attempted political prejudices or preconceptions often play a large part in providing the answer. There is no way of reaching an impartial decision owing to the unfortunate lack of precise information about what has happened previously. To guard against this in the present instance the necessary facts and figures ought to be collected now and the more people there are engaged on the work the better it will be.
This is even more important where the provisions in the Act have not been to any great extent the centre of political argument. The subject can too easily be dismissed as of academic interest only. But it is for this very reason that academic interest ought to be kept alive. General agreement does not necessarily make a piece of legislation ideal. It should be re-examined from time to time like other more controversial measures. If the politicians do not care to act the responsibility on the impartial researcher is all the heavier.
Quality licensing provides a good example. It has been accepted with surprising equanimity even by hauliers who were the people most likely to object. During the passage of the Act there was hardly any opposition in Parliament or from the public. All the same quality licen sing is a revolutionary concept. It will bring about a complete change in the licensing system. According to the Government the change will be very much for the better; indeed there would otherwise be no point in making it.
Lack of objection at this stage should not rule out a subsequent examination to find out whether quality licensing lives up to the claims of its sponsors. The preliminary work ought to be done now while it is still possible to collect first-hand evidence on the working of the present system.
If there is any doubt on the best lines of approach the Geddes report, jejune and speculative in many respects, may at least provide some useful chapter headings. It was on the strength of this report that the Government decided that regulation of competition between public hauliers was no longer necessary. It seems appropriate that the report should offer the framework against which its conclusions can be judged.
In some cases evidence on the current situation will already be available. "Licensing has not had any significant bearing on road safety," says the Geddes report. The need to improve road safety is the main justification for quality licensing as well as the only justification for other new measures such as vehicle plating and testing. The reformers ought to have some idea in statistical terms of what they have to beat. The tables published in Road A ceidents 1967 give the general picture and the Ministry have in the records a good deal of additional detail.
Heavies are safest
The most useful tables for comparative purposes show the number of vehicles of various categories involved in injury accidents per 100m. vehicle miles. In 1967, the last year for which statistics are available, there were 256 accidents involving vehicles weighing 30cwt unladen or more and 346 accidents involving vehicles less than 30cwt. The figure for cars and taxis was 298.
It is these statistics which show that, measured in terms of the frequency with which they were involved in accidents, heavy lorries are the safest vehicles of all and notably safer than vans. There is no justification here for the decision to relieve the more dangerous lighter vehicles from all licensing restrictions and from plating and testing.
For almost all categories of vehicle the accident record has improved over the years. It is reasonable to hope that the tendency will continue in 1969 while the present licensing system remains in force. Thereafter it is for the new system to prove its worth. If the statistics show no appreciable acceleration of the trend it will be tempting if not inevitable to conclude that the longdrawn-out controversy over the Transport Bill and the humiliation of plating and testing have largely been in vain.
The acid test
On other points the official statistics are not so helpful. "The restrictiOns imposed by licensing reduce efficiency and licensing as a whole offers no offsetting advantages in this field," says the Geddes report. From the point of view of trade and industry the acid test should come here. But it is not easy to make. Without outside help the customer has to strike a fair balance between the standard of efficiency at the time of the investigation and the standard two or three years previously.
Cost may be a better guide than a subjective assessment. The customer will know what he is paying for his transport and the comparative earlier costs can be ascertained. It would be helpful if the information were collated now. It should be available in general terms from the survey that the Centre for Interfirm Comparison is carrying out on behalf of the Road Haulage Association. Where this will help in particular is in separating out the various reasons for changes in costs. They may be due among other things to improvements in productivity, new taxation, general price rises, higher wages and the need for improved standards of maintenance. It should also be possible to decide what changes should be laid directly at the door of the Transport Act.
The authors of the Geddes report at least had the courage of their convictions. "Licensing has not been and cannot be a useful way of controlling road congestion," they declared. Proof on this point should be possible from a comparison of the number of goods vehicles before and after the Act and the implementation of quality licensing. Particular attention should be paid to these vehicles which do not weigh more than 30ewt. Any significant increase or decrease which cannot be explained by other factors must presumably be due to the new legislation.
"There is little inefficiency in C licensed operation," says the Geddes report, "and what there is can best be reduced by allowing traders and manufacturers to use their lorries free of restriction as to what they may carry." Coming events may not completely prove or disprove this expression of opinion. A small increase in efficiency by C licence holders could mean a substantial loss of efficiency by some hauliers. If traders are tempted to add substantially to their fleets there is bound to be a drop in the work done by the individual vehicle.