Have They Any Justification ? By " Vectis."
Page 13
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IT IS RATHER, curious, but it is, nevertheless, . strictly true that, in certain respects, traders appear to be influenced by fashion in their selection of commercial motor vehicles. I am. not referring to such matters as the choice between, let us say, chain drive and live axle. One can understand readily enough how a fashion might be created in favour of
, one or other of these owing to an energetic propagandist campaign and its natural influence on public opinion. I have in mind rather the peculiar fact, capable of being corroborated by manufacturers, that, in one season,, the bulk of the demand may be for substantial vehicles perhaps of the 3-ton type, whilst, next year, the demand for this type may fall off considerably, and an immensely increased demand for lighter maehines, carrying from 25 to 30 cwt., may spring up in its place. Thenext year, again, the process may be completely reversed.
The Demand for Vehicle Capacities Varies.
This swinging of the pendulum first .towards one type and then towards another, has a very considerable effect on the internal organization of the manufacturing 'industry. Particularly, it strongly diseour
• ages the successful working out of any scheme of close collaboration between large groups of manufacturers. Supposing that five manufacturers were to get together and combine their selling organisation, each one undertaking. the manufacture of a single type of vehicle. During the first season, the firm that had undertaken to provide 4-tonners might find the_ demand so heavy that it was compelled to extend its works or to refuse orders. Meanwhile, the firm specializing in oneatormerss might be comparatively slack. .Next year, the position would, very likely, be reversed, and each manufacturer in the group would feel that by undertaking not to compete with the remainder, he was creating for himself a dangerous position and putting himself at the mercy of theevagaries of fashion. If we could reckon with fair certainty that the proportions of.orders, as between types of the various load .capaCities, would remain fairly constant, or would fluctuate anly gradually and in a manner which could be forecasted, the combination of groups of firms for the purposeof sales and service would be far easier. Thus, we see thats these quick fluctuations, apparently dependent on fashion, may have very serious effects, discouraging developments which, being. conducive to economical production and good service, Would be beneficial to users.
Similar Trades Demand Similar Types.
Therefore, it is worth while to consider whether the fluctuatiens are, in fact, due to some more solid causes, or whether they owe their origin .mainly to the comparative ignorance of many prospective purchasers and their consequent tendency to. act after the manner of the domesticated sheep, merely following their leader wherever he chooses to go. If the fluctuations are due to any such cause as this latter, then we May expect them to become less and less noticeable as time goes on, and as traders grow more and more capable, each of' forming his own opinion as to his awn needs withont being subjected to outside influence.
In a recent instalment of "Transport Tips for Tradesmen "in The Commercial Motor it was pointed out that, from the average trader's point of view, the capacity of the vehicle selected must be determined, after estimation of the number .of deliveries to be _effected and their duration, coupled, of course, with the length of the ronnds. Now, it is quite clear that in any given trade, the requirement in respect of numberof deliveries cannot change in a. revolutioaary manner from year to year. The business of a firm may grow, necessitating the use of a larger number of vehicles, but, in general, the new vehicles will be of the same make and capacity as the old. If other firma in the industry become motor owners, the general similarity of their businessesamake it at least probable that they will be right in adopting similar types to members of the same trade who have gone before them. The fact that there is some peculiarity in the business of one firm which leads it to supplement a fleet of one-ton vans. by the. purchase of a 3-tanner is in itself, no argument for similar action by all that firm's competitors. If a given trade seems to swing over unanimously from one capacity of vehicle to another, the natural deduction is that its first experiments were not so successful as they should have been, because the vehicles originally selected were the wrong capacity. It is difficult to account on any reasonable grounds for the same trade continuing to swing backwards and forwards in its opinions from year to year. . It may be that the changes in demand are, to some extent, due to. the efforts of manufacturers' representatives arid agents. One. can understand that, if the demand for vehicles of a. certain capacity is disappointing, a special effort might be -made to improve it, and this effort might be successful even to an undesirable extent.
New Users Create Fluctuations.
Some fluctuations in demand may be due to the fact that, each year, new industries seriousiY take up motor transport. There are some classes of trade to which the motor vehicle appeals very easily. There are others the conditions of which demand more action. Generally speaking, of course the motor is most obviously a good proposition where through journeys with substantial loads are possible. Thus, one would expect the demand to comeIrst from trades requiring substantial vehicles, and later from those requiring a larger percentage of comparatively light vans. This would account for a gradual falling off in the proportion of the heavier types sold as against the lighter, but it does not account for periodic oscillation of theedemand.
Altogether, then, this oscillation appears to me to he for the most part unaccountable, or due to acme cause have no direct connection with logical thought. If that be so, then it must surely be attributed to fashion. 'Now, we have seen that these oscillations which cannot be forecasted are distinctly bad for the -organization of the industry for cheap production and are, therefore, bad for users in the aggregate. Thus, I am led to suggest that many prospective users must be in the habit of merely following the lead of more experienced firms in their vicinity, regardless of the essential differences,between their business and that of those which they strive to imitate.
In certain specific branches, one can_ see good possible cause for very material changes in demand. For instance' it is quite conceivable that char-a-banes proprietors, disturbed by the outcry against the use of very large vehicles on country roads, may tend to desert that type wholesale and go in for something much smaller. They might well carry the process to excess, with the result that a reaction would set in, due to a realization of the fact that the heavy vehicle is the best money earner. Thus, we should get a demand, certainly oscillating from one side to the other of the normal, but gradually settling down until the normal is reached and maintained. The sooner this process of settling. down occurs in respect of the demand for all types of commercial vehicle, the better for all concerned.