THE FUTURE of
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PASSENGER TRANSPORT
A Tendency Towards Increased Travel. Competition from Private Motorists, the Railways and the Air. Developments in Public-service Vehicle Stations. Possi bilities of the Small Operator
By
F. A. Flin
NONE but a fool would be so presumptuous as to pretend to possess enough knowledge of possible world changes in politics, economics, or inventive progress, to be enabled to prophesy as to the future—hence an invitation has been extended to me to contribute this article.
Writing of the future offers huge scope for an imaginative person, and yet could be covered by a guess at to-morrow's happenings, or carried • to conjecture as to the existent state of civilization in A.D. 2932. If the subject were approached from either of those extremes, the work would offer little difficulty, for, in the one case, the prophecies could hardly be wrong, whilst; in the other, they could not be proved to be incorrect.
Restricted Development.
One must remember that the tendency to restrict road transport by legislation must have such an effect tri the advance in design that relief will be imperative if British designers and manufacturers are not to be outclassed by foreigners, and, as a consequence, to see, again, in general use, in this country, vehicles imported from abroad.
Restricted opportunity for use limits the possibility of testing new ideas under service conditions. Once that chance is lost, our export trade will diminish to such an extent that there will be also a lack of progress that will make available for foreign motor manufacturers the British market.
Fortunately, political policies are, from time to time, prescribed by different authorities, and the law of averages is applicable in politics as in everything else, sothat it can reasonably be expected that there will eventually appear leaders with acumen and foresight. That should resuscitate the hopes of those engaged in this important industry, and in that so close)y allied to it, the Interests of which lie in air travel.
B18 It seems in natural sequence that we shall soon be dependent upon the compression-ignition power unit, although it follows that its popular acceptajice will destroy much of its present advantage of low fuel cost. This should, however, be offset by the benefits of consistently reliable service, added to the prospects of reduced maintenance costs, both from the saving in engine-part renewals, and from its greater period of useful service between overhauls.
From the question of safety alone, the oil engine must make a strong appeal and the marked need for providing some outlet by which coal might be utilized, with a view to assisting the destitute coal-mining industry, should accentuate the change over to oil fuel produced from that mineral.
One of the " self-changing " types of gearbox now available must predominate before long. The existing design has lasted only because of the ability of those whose work it is to manipulate it and to replace its components. Mechanically, it provides the one note of humour in an otherwise serious endeavour to convert engine power to road-wheel revolutions.
Spring Improvement Overdue.
Progress in tyre manufacture has shielded for too long those responsible for spring design. Revolutionary changes in spring suspension are long overdue, and will tend towards the abolition of that difficulty handed on by spring designers to bodybuilders, who have to build up and down hill to overcome difficulties met in the vicinity of the back axle. To give credit where credit is due, there are certain small refinements in the main spring in use, to-day, in comparison with that attached to the axles of old horsed coaches 100 years ago; for one thing, some naaufacturers stamp the part number on present-day spring leaves.
The driven back axle is disturbing to the plane on which bodies may be mounted. It is difficult, however, to foreshadow any radical differ
ence, although the possibility of removing all vibratory effect from both this component and from the engine must give rise to thoughts as to the possibility of the passenger unit being entirely free from either engine or transmission vibration. It makes one visualize some type of tractor.
Regulations will keep bodies in the same general form for a year or two, but there must be the usual fashionable changes in fixtures and fittings. It is to be supposed that the present experimental efforts to hide the power unit in different places will be followed by other similarly secretive manufacturers.
Solving the Luggage Problem.
Surely, for express-carriage work, the luggage-storage problem must be solved soon, especially when the authorities have an opportunity for insisting that the gangways are not suitable sites. It is to be wondered why the internal large-sized luggage racks introduced three years ago have not seen general adoption.
The state of the roads will compel the more general use of doubledeckers, and these, one can see, must serve those express-carriage services which suffer prominent fluctuations with seasonal traffic. Double-deckers will, in such instances, lessen operating costs, which are forced to a high level by the need for holding reserve vehicles for peak-period traffic at week-ends and in midsummer, and some reduction is necessary if taxation is to be met without the doubtful expedient of higher fares.
Arches beneath railways and the like will restrict any suggestion as to multi-deckers. While we have tramways we must retain the present limit of width, but the fact that our arterial-road builders apparently set out to supply sufficient space only for present traffic leads thoughts to the provision of greater passenger accommodation in relation to road space occupied.
Roads must play the greatest part in our future prospects. If we are to be confined to certain road boundaries, congestion can be relieved only by the occupation of road space for as short a time as possible, and that means speed, and, at the moment, those who indulge in speed are not regarded in the light of being public benefactors. That is because speed in many places iavolves danger. Therefore, there must be under and over cross-roads with long tributary roads leading in to a widened main route, the tapering of which will give ample opportunity to those joining it for conforming safely with the movements of other vehicles. Residential districts must be kept away. from these routes, and it would seem that it is only the sensible attribute of such an arrangement that no provision has been made to enforce it.
Growth of Bus Services.
Road passenger transport makes this conveniently possible. It can be appreciated that, in the old days, a man liked to live within walking distance of his place of worship or hostelry, which were suitably placed on main roads. With the growth of bus services, distance is now reckoned in fares and not in terms of walking, and public-service vehicles can provide all the travel facilities required.
. in built-up areas, it is unfortunate that the use of bus or coach stations, in many cases, rlestroys partially the usefulness of the public service vehicles in the consequent negatived mobility and convenience, where detours off the route are necessary to reach such places.
The coach stations we know now are presumed to be edifices of the future. There is, however, the serious question as to whether, if located correctly, the services will be able to support their erection and maintenance, without serious discouragement in the way of increased operating expenses. To bring them within economic, use, they could occupy sites of low value, yet that signifies out-of-the-way spots, and uselessness.
All vehicles will, in future, have to be removed from available road space when stopping. As it does not seem practicable to rebuild our streets and the bordering buildings, there must be increased adoption of the system of road -widening at convenient stops, where passenger
vehicles can run into the -" loops" provided for picking up passengers, without interfering with the main flow of traffic. This is practicable in most towns and in many other places, even in London.
In considering the future prospects of the industry, one has to judge first tile possibilities of competitive passenger transport. Whilst rail travel will remain suitable for the conveyance of certain passenger traffic, it never has been, since its inception, a complete form of transport, and has depended, as it still depends, on further collective and distributive forms of transit.
Road transport has clone this latter work, and has gone farther in offering many of its patrons complete and final transport from place to place. There appears to be no doubt that there is no further useful work the railways can undertake in meeting any future demand for travel.
Another competitor is rather above us at present—in more ways than one. In spite of the promise of the helicopter type of aeroplane, there are still too many difficulties for aircraft to overcome before they can offer anything like complete transport, and the speed advantage is largely lost for any but the longer journeys, because of the need for other conveyance from the necessarily distant airports.
Road and Air.
Fog, and the danger to residential districts, will keep airports where they are, and there they depend, like the railways, upon road vehicles for their connections to the towns. There is the possible relief from this inconvenience to passengers when the suitably adapted " cabin " can be transferred from the aeroplane to become a road vehicle. In any case, the competition that air travel might offer over the longer journeys would be more attractive to the patron of the railways.
The most feared competitor in many branches of the industry is the private-car owner of the future. The railways have suffered severely from the enormous increase in the number of motorists, yet road travel on public-service vehicles has grown year by year. It might well be that this movement to the roads will create a greater habit of road travel that will recompense the industry for any direct loss of custom through the greater ownership of private cars.
One cannot help but be slightly pessimistic as regards the small man. The service supplied to the travelling public depends so much
upon co-operation between interconnecting services that it seems unavoidable that control should find its way into the hands of large companies, each with some binding interest in the other.
It is to he remembered that the British public is always a sympathetic supporter of the small owner, who could continue in this business should he so desire, and such a proprietor is■often able profitably to operate services that would be unremunerative to the larger concerns.
Seasonal Facilities.
There is a distinct difference where the seasonal service is concerned. In that branch, the larger operators can never predominate, for they cannot bear the charge of retaining sufficient vehicles to meet the entire demand, in season, from the larger towns, and particularly London, where, also, the smaller operator has the advantage of serving particular localities noE conveniently fed by others, and in which he enjoys local goodwill.
There must be a good future for road passenger transport, both from the viewpoint that our population is ever increasing and from the fact that industrialism in the large towns, and the change in taste helped by improved conditions of employment, has driven the residential population to the country districts, where they become so dependent upon road transport.
Trade depression can be little worse in the future than it is to-day; and any improvement will be rapidly reflected in increased travel. Agricultural pursuits are in a similar category, so that there is hope there for improvement. If there be any real back-to-the-land movement, it will all bring business to the public-service-vehicle operator.
This industry might itself be enabled to extend help to coal mining in the use of fuel, should endeavour be properly directed to that end. So, apart from these general possible trade improvements to help us, we have the tendency on the part of all for increased facilities for education and amusement, in satisfying which desires the public-service vehicle plays an important part.
There is also a future for those engaged in coach and bus operation if they be willing to appreciate that it is a job requiring expert knowledge persistently and enthusiastically applied, with recognition always that, even with that groundwork, success depends not upon the selfish view, but upon efficient service to the public.