Euro makers 'must export'
Page 4
If you've noticed an error in this article please click here to report it so we can fix it.
THIS YEAR will be the toughest yet for European commercial vehicle manufacturers, according to a report published this week by DRI Europe which forecasts the path of the industry to 1987.
Although the British industry will fare comparatively well, over all of Europe, DRI envisages virtually no growth at all from the current depressed levels this year, and the 1987 market will only be two per cent above the 1980 level.
Demand for new vehicles in Belgium, the Netherlands, France, West Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Sweden, and Spain will fall from last year's 1.04m to 990,000, and will rise again to 1.12m in 1987, a figure just below the 1980 level.
Production by French, West German, Italian, British and Netherlands manufacturers will rise slightly from last year's 1.23m to 1.25m lorries and vans, and again in 1987 to 1.34m, which is still below 1980's 1.48m.
DRI predicts that United Kingdom demand for vehicles over 3.5 tonnes gvw will rise from last year's 45,000 to 50,000, and again to 64,000 in 1987. The 1980 figure was 61,000. Production will rise from last year's 58,000 to 76,000, and again to 88,000 in 1987. In 1980 it was 104,000.
It predicts that the West German market will remain stagnant this year, with demand reaching 60,000 vehicles over 3.5 tonnes, against 59,000 in 1981. In 1987, demand should rise to 69,000. Production this year is expected to fall sharply, from last year's 180,000 to 165,000, but it should recover by 1987, to reach 202,000.
The prospects for the French and Italian industries are brighter, according to DR!.
In general, DRI says that manufacturers will have to look beyond Europe to increase their production, and it believes that by 1987, 50 per cent of production will be for outside markets. In 1980 the figure was 44 per cent.
The full report is available for £650 from DRI Europe Ltd, at 30 Old Queen Street, St James's Park, London, SW1 H 9HP. (Phone 01-222 9571),