Hauliers ... should not jump to the conclusion that the Glicence tide has turned '
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SCIENCE fiction and other prophetic writings are indifferent guides to the future largely because so many things that happen are not merely unexpected but against commonsense. At any time in the past 30 years, for example, it could confidently be said that the professional transport operator would come to feel something less than affection for the man who insisted on making his own arrangements. But by what process of reasoning could one have worked out that the passenger operator by road would make his discontent known at the top of his .voice whereas the haulier would bottle his feelings up and even champion the right of the individual to carry his goods himself anywhere he pleased without restriction?
This is how things seem to have worked out. At a Press conference last week, representatives of every busoperating interest except London Transport had no hesitation in being rude about private cars. They were like pigeons, it was said—the more you fed them, the more you attracted them. They should be discouraged from coming into central areas. They should be banned from certain bus-only traffic lanes. It is inconceivable to imagine an attack in such terms by the haulier against the C licence holder. Why there should be this difference of approach is anybody's guess, and candidates offering a solution are invited to note also that the railways, faced with a problem similar to that of the professional road operator, tend in contrast to criticize the trader who carries his own goods far more vigorously than the man who drives himself.
Another mystery concerning the C licence holder may be cleared up a little more easily. According to figures issued by the Ministry of Transport, there were 1,267,777 vehicles operated by traders at the end of 1962. The total is only about 14,000, or just over 1 per cent, above the figure of 1,253,785 at the end of 1961. For every year since the war, the increase has been very much greater. It was 50,000 during 1961 and over 60,000 in 1960.
INCREASE RATE SLOWED?
The first impression is that the rapid rate of increase has slowed down abruptly. The quarterly totals during 1962 show an even more unexpected picture. There were 1,263,610 C-licensed vehicles in September, 1,255,118 in June and 1,252,542 in March. This last figure is actually below the total for the end of the previous year. The assumption from the figures alone is that traders gave up more vehicles than they acquired during the first quarter of 1962 and that the increase was then resumed, although at a somewhat slower pace than previously.
Hauliers as well as the railways would have preferred any decrease to be concentrated among the heavier vehicles. This has not happened according to the official statistics. The number of vehicles exceeding 3 tons unladen weight is still rising fairly rapidly, but is being counterbalanced by a smaller decline in the much larger number of vehicles weighing between 11 and 3 tons. It has always to be borne in mind that well over half the total of C-licensed vehicles do not weigh more than tons, and in this category there has continued to be a slow increase, per cent in the course of 1962.
To what extent is the first impression from the latest set of figures justified? One would have expected an overall increase of between 40,000 and 50,000 during the year. Some explanation must be sought for the fact that the actual figure is no more than 14,000. Have the traders been persuaded by Dr. Beeching's propaganda? Do they find a continual improvement in the service provided by the haulier? Or are they cutting down expenditure on transport because of the industrial. situation?
MAIN EXPLANATION SIMPLER
All these factors may play some part, but the main explanation may be much simpler. The clue is provided by the foreword to the annual reports of the licensing authorities for the year up to the end of September, 1961. During that year, the opportunity was taken to review the basis on which the statistics of goads vehicles are compiled and to weed out the old records. Attention was paid first of all to A and B licences, and the overhaul of these had been completed by the end of the year.
The numbers of vehicles on C licence shown in the tables at the end of the reports were not revised, but the necessary treatment was promised for all the vehicles weighing over 3 tons. The results are plainly visible in all the heavier categories, where the increases in 1962 have been around 10 per cent, instead of the customary 13 per cent or so. Any revision of records is almost bound to mean the cutting away of dead wood and a consequent drop in the totals. Applied to the lighter vehicles, the revision might well be even more drastic. There has been more than one hint that the van operator tends to be casual about reporting that he no longer uses the vehicle, which therefore remains in the official records.
The revision of the official records seems a plausible reason for the apparently dramatic check to the rise in the number of C-licensed vehicles. The next batch of reports from the licensing authorities may bring the necessary confirmation. In the meantime, hauliers and the railways, if they care to imagine that a graph showing the increase year by year is for them the sign of a progressive retreat, should not jump to the conclusion that the C-licence tide has turned. The ultimate limit in the number of private goods vehicles may not yet have been reached.
That there is a limit is not beyond the bounds of possibility. One contrast between the private lorry and the private car is that the latter is used perhaps predominantly for journeys and travel which the owner might not even contemplate if he had to rely upon public transport, whereas the lorry is sent out only when there is a need for it. In theory, therefore, all the traffic that the trader carries himself could be conveyed by public transport and offers a remote or immediate target for hauliers, and to a more limited extent for the railways.