The Common Market
Page 15
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Assessing the transport trends
• With Britain on a "go" course for entry to the European Common Market, transport organizations must give serious thought to the probable consequences. The difficulties of accurate assessment of the effects of entry on particular flows of traffic are enormous but transport marketing departments which attempt to quantify the benefits or disadvantages will serve their firms better than those which await events passively.
The easiest method of approach for the average transport operator is to liaise closely with customer firms. The larger manufacturing companies are likely to be aware of the enhanced or diminished share of British exports to the Community that could follow entry to the EEC. Some small, specialist exporters, too, may be very much "on the ball". Throughout road deliveries at an economic price may mean that exports to Europe can be boosted.
Estimating what may be called the "macro" economic effects—whether the centre of gravity of many manufacturing and processing industries will tend to move towards the south-eastern corridor of Britain—is equally hard to forecast with certainty. Already, many large British industries have established manufacturing and distribution centres in France, Holland and Germany. The possible effect of this investment in Europe is already a political "hot potato" in the regions in Britain where unemployment is high. If it accelerates in the next decade there will be many road hauliers in northern England, in Scotland, in Northern Ireland and in the West Country who will suffer.
Equally difficult to assess is the effect of free movement of labour within the community. Already many British workers in shipbuilding are working in Germany. If wages and opportunities in vehicle manufacturing plants are better in Europe than in Britain there could be a corresponding exodus, and the same trend could induce skilled maintenance fitters to work in Europe. Of course, if particular British industries expand rapidly and have difficulty in recruiting suitable labour European workers may come here.
"Britain and the Common Market", by S. S. Han and H. H. Liesner (Cambridge University Press, LI.20), makes no attempt to spell out the transport effects of joining the EEC. It tries to assess the effect of entry on the pattern of manufacturing production in this country. Particular firms or industries will find this a useful guide but transport managers will hope that something much more concrete is produced, stating tonnages and volumes of traffic that may be induced to flow to or from Europe as a result of Britain's entry.
Because UK tariffs exceeded EEC rates of duty in 12 out of 14 items of transport equipment—principally lorries, buses, and vehicle parts—the authors expect that the industry as a whole should enjoy a relatively strong position in an enlarged EEC. Taking the years 1965 /67 to give an average base for comparison, the' UK had a quite substantial crude trade surplus vis-a-ids the EEC in transport equipment, with exports to the EEC at just over $ 250m and trade in the other direction at just over 1; 180m. Exports to third countries averaged about it 1,400m for the UK and nearly S 2.400m for the EEC.
The authors stress that the limitation of their study to manufacturing means that nothing can be said very definitely about important sectors of the economy (which in aggregate are much larger than manufacturing industry). In short, it is not possible to assess the effect of entry on manufacturing without also closely studying the effect on services like transport. The two things interact and affect results in both sectors. J. Darker