BOOK REVIEWS
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Outlook for 1979 Worldwide Automotive Activity 1977 and Outlook. 1978/79, by Arthur Way and Richard Phillips, published by The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.
THE Japanese attack on the commercial vehicle market is growing at a fast rate — both in developed countries and worldwide. World production next year is estimated by the Economist Intelligence Unit to amount to 8,405,000 — with Japan the largest manufacturer with a 3,350,000 output.
The Japanese home market for 1979 is estimated at 1,750,000 commercial vehicles.
From an export/import ratio standard, the UK figure stands comparison, though they need to be considered very much within the context of our troubles vis-à-vis, the huge Japanese expansion — their production even exceeds by 150,000 vehicles that of the USA for the first time.
United Kingdom production next year is estimated to rise 5,000 to 415,000 cv, with the home market demand dropping 5,000 to 240,000.
And, says the Economist Intelligence Unit in its report — Worldwide Automotive Activity 1977 and Outlook 1978/79 — an interesting feature of the commercial vehicle demand / balance during the period 1975 to 1979 is the growing surplus of output for Third World markets.
The report emphasises that care is needed in drawing conclusions from commercial vehicle forecasts. In North America, for example, a growing element of the market is accounted for by four-wheeldrive vans and pick-ups for private buyers. Also there is universal positive movement towards the use of bigger lorries, which implies lower sales for any given haulage needs.
In Western Europe. the adverse trade balance and the effective of Japanese vehicle imports on domestic manufacturers have led to political talks. But after pressure from the West it is still not clear when there will be completely free two-way trade with Japan, where technical difficulties over regulations, tariffs, etc, have made exporting difficult. (In 1976 the Japanese imported 187 commercial vehicles. In February this year Japanese exports amounted to 409,746 cars and commercial vehicles — a figure which underlines the significant change in the international market, which is changing again with a trend to completely knocked-down units. The Japanese are reported to favour countries where the average new car prices reach 1.5 times the national income per head. There are only a few countries which qualify on this basis, so suggesting further changes in Japanese strategy as markets close to direct exports from Japan.
"The Japanese belief," says the report, "that the key to success in developing markets is to sustain low volume at a profit is obviously justified, but the realities of local market assembly can be expected to affect Japanese companies in the same way as other Western producers."
While the report has many figures about Japan, China remains an enigma, with virtually no clues about its development of manufacturing and haulage industries. A Chinese delegation has visited Fiat, and Mitsubishi, lsuzu and Hino this 'year, it is reported, have been invited to prepare a proposal for a Chinese factory to make 100,000 lorries a year.
The Intelligence Unit adds "China has imported built-up vehicles in small numbers from the West in the past, but there appears to be a growing willingness to continue and extend the practice in order to meet shortterm requirements until their own facilities are able to satisfy demand.
-Naturally the bulk of imports are commercial vehicles and two important contracts were recently concluded. Volvo won a contract to supply 700 trucks for delivery in 1978. while lsuzu received an order for 1,500 trucks."'
India makes few cv — and even fewer cars. Tatra is the leading manufacturer, under licence from Mercedes-Benz. Ashok Leyland raised production to 19.6 per cent of commercial vehicles made in India during 1976.
In the UK in 1977 sales rose. by 7.6 per cent to 230,869, domestic suppliers recording a 4.8 per cent improvement, and importers "a highly respectable 25.2 per cent". The report deals with Western Europe country by country. It is interesting that while it reveals that the West German market showed a minimal 0.4 per cent increase in 1 977 to 137,959 vehicles, no b-reakdown is available to distinguish domestic suppliers from imported content.
Public haulage increase Freight Transport is a Central Office of Information booklet published by HM Stationery Office in its "British Industry Today" series at £1.25.
THIS HANDY booklet gives readers just about all the figures that can be digested as a general background to transport today in Britain, and includes chapters on all modes of transport including pipelines.
The chapter on road haulage gives a good run-down • About 124,400 road haulage operators run goods vehicles of 3.5 tonnes gross laden or more, for which an 0-licence is needed — and of these 69,700 have only one vehicle; • Public haulage has increased its share of the road haulage market to 60,100 million tonne-kilometres, representing 63 per cent of the distance covered compared with 58 per cent in 1966, at the expense of own-account operations; • In terms of tonne-kilometres, road haulage traffic has increased by 31 per cent between 1966 and 1976 when it amounted to a record 95,600m tonne kilometres, but actual goods vehicle traffic has, however, grown much less because of the move towards larger vehicles carrying larger loads; • The general rise in the number of goods vehicles in the last few years has been primarily because of the rise in the number of light vans (1,.5 tonnes and under; 1966 —
845,000; 1976
1,109,000).
It is worth noting how the other transport modes are doing. British Rail operates 2,212 route-miles for freight traffic only, and in 1977 earned £348m from freight and around E109m from parcels. But in million tonnes amounts fell to 170.4 in 1977 from 217 in 1966.
Coastal shipping carried 39m tonnes of freight around Britain in 1976.
Eighty-nine British container ships carried 1,471,000 tons.
The inland waterways carrie 72m tonne-kilometres in 197E Traffic by pipeline amounte to 45.8m tonnes (excludin, gases, water and sewerage) i 1976.
And although less than 1 pe cent by weight of Britain's ovel seas trade is moved by air, thi mounts to 15 per cent by value Materials handling
Materials Handling Facts published by Lansing Ltd Kingsclere Road, Basing stoke, Hants, free of charge.
HERE'S a pocket guide tr materials handling facts that wil help answer many commor questions.
Its contents include basil principles of materials handlinc and types of unit load. Thi range of industrial trucks avail able and their relevance in par ticular applications is discussed There are chapters on batteries chargers, safety, operating an maintenance procedures as wel as training.
Technical sections deal witl aisle width configurations, cal culation of capacities and loai centres, axle loadings an drawbar pull. This is followed b a review of the facilities offerei by Lansing and its associatel companies and the booklet cor cludes with points on metrics tion and sources of furthe reference.
Guide to Continent
Guide to Guesthouses, Farm houses & Inns on the Con tinent, published by tho Automobile Association Fanum House, Basingstoke Hants, RG21 2EA, at £2.2! to members, £2.50 fron booksellers.
FIVE THOUSAND low-cos places to stay in 12 countries ir Europe are listed in this guide another professional and infor mation packed book from thr AA which could be useful or business trips or holidays, parti cularly the latter.
The sort of special informa tion it has is a section on passe: and tunnels. For instance, it in cludes such out of the way in formation as that Albula Pass Switzerland, is a 7,595ft pass with 1 in 10 maximum gradient 12ft minimum width o road; conditions usually closer November till late May — it' S ar inferior alternative to the Julier tar and gravel; fine scenery.