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Sad Augurs

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1st June 1956

Page 140

Page 140, 1st June 1956 — Sad Augurs

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The mortal moonhath her eclipse endured And the sad augurs mock their own presage, Incertainties now croWn themselves assured And peace proclaims olives of endless age.

0 NCE official machinery is set in motion, it is not easily stopped. Some years ago, for reasons that were probably mixed even at the time and are now hopelessly obscured, the Ministry of Transport began to issue first monthly and then quarterly summaries of the number of vehicles and operators with C licences. Although the original purpose probably no longer has any force, the summaries continue to appear regularly, self-sufficient and without an explanation.

When they began, the situation added piquancy to the figures, which were startling enough in themselves. Nationalization of road haulage was under way, and naturally a great interest was shown in the attitude of trade and industry the customers of the new State organimtion. The obvious statistical method of measuring their reaction was to observe to what extent the customers were using their own transport.

There may have been several reasons for the extraordinarily rapid increase in the number of C-licensed vehicles, but there is no doubt that it occurred. During 1948 and 1949, while the British Transport Commission were taking over the businesses of long-distance hauliers, the number of C-licensed vehicles was rising at the rate of 100,000 a year.

Regular bulletins to this effect provided ammunition for heated arguments in which the representatives of trade and industry resolutely but significantly refused to detect a political flavour. They shrugged off the growth in the number of C licences as something quite natural, almost as though every self-respecting trader ought to have a vehicle or two around the shop. The Socialists, . who saw no reason to leave politics out of the question, were not in the least mollified. They voiced their suspicions of deliberate sabotage, and threatened reprisals in the form of restrictions.

, Wiser Counsels As the number of C-licensed vehicles approaches the million mark, the excitement that the subject once aroused seems almost to have died away. The idea that the number would treble itself within a decade would have seemed fantastic in 1946, when there were only a little over 300,000 C-licensed vehicles, and the Labour Government were proposing to restrict them to a radius of 40 miles. It is odd to reflect that the wiser counsels that ultimately prevailed upon the Socialists to drop the proposal would have been unavailing had they possessed the gift of statistical prophecy; and yet, when their worst fears have come true, they seem not to be greatly upset.

Mr. Ernest Davies, M.P., may claim to have had the gift of augury on March 20, 1947, when for the first time he had the opportunity to protest against the announcement a few days earlier by Mr. Alfred Barnes, then Minister of Transport, that the proposed limitation on C-licence holders would be dropped. "There is no protection left in the Bill," said Mr. Davies, "against a vast increase in the number of C licences and for the transferring of very much of the traffic which is now carried by A contract, and A and B licences, to the ancillary user.

Fig Mr. Barnes refused to change his mind again. " I have every reason to believe," he said, "that the majority of traders will act in a responsible way and co-operate with the Government to see that a small minority does not produce a ridiculous situation in this respect."

He might well have characterized as " ridiculous " any idea that • there would ever be a million vehicles under C licences; and on the evidence of figures alone Mr. Davies would be justified in saying that his warning had come true. Mr. Barnes is no longer prominent in politics. Mr. Davies frequently has occasion to speak about the C-licence holder, and he still hints at restrictions. But the disposal of most of the nationalized road haulage property helps him to feel that the matter is no longer Urgent, and it no longer seems likely that, whatever change of Government may take place, there will be any further attack on the freedom of the C licence.

No Great Fervour The fact that the subject arouses no great fervour these days can be explained partly from a study of the latest figures issued by the Ministry of Transport. They show a total of 956,445 C-licensed vehicles in March, 1956. This is 12,351 more than at the end of the previous quarter, and represents a rate of increase of about 50,000 or 5 per cent. per annum. In the three years from the end of 1952, the increase has been 110,258 or 13 per cent. This may be substantial, but it can perhaps best be judged in comparison with the index of industrial production, which rose by about 19 per cent. between 1952 and 1955.

Nobody can blame trade and industry for increasing their -fleets of vehicles in step with the increase in the volume of the goods they manufacture and distribute. It may be surprising that they have not bought even more vehicles. If hauliers feel that two reasons for this are denationalization and abolition of the 25-mile limit, ' they are wisely saying nothing about it. On the whole, the figures are being left to speak for themselves.

It is worth noting that they may not give a wholly accurate impression. It is probably not true that at the end of March there were actually on the road 956,445 vehicles owned by traders and manufacturers and used for the carriage of their goods. Many of the vehicles shown in the current records of the Ministry of .Transport have been disposed of, and the owners have neglected to inform the Licensing Authority or to surrender the licences.

The official statistics also do not indicate where the trader has a hiring allowance. Vehicles used under such an allowance are technically C-licensed, but are owned and operated by people who regard themselves as hauliers.

Nevertheless, the figures are of value, and reveal trends that are worth examination_ For example, the proportion of heavier vehicles rises each quarter. At the extreme ends of the scale the number of vehicles of an unladen weight exceeding 6 tons has risen by 250 per cent. since the end of 1948, whereas the number of vehicles not exceeding 1-1 tons has gone up by only 75 per cent. Changes such as this in the general pattern may be found to correspond with changes in the general development of industry.