COMMENT
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SAME OLD SAME OLD
There now follows an important announcement from the festive greetings department. Due to the current economic squeeze, "A Happy New Year" has been cancelled indefinitely. Considering the current financial health of the industry, anything other than cautious pessimism seems particularly inappropriate. Less than a fortnight ago we reported that almost 20% of the nation's 65,300 licensed operators made a loss in their last financial year. And what of those who actually made money? Among them the average profit is a pitiful 2.7%, while only 20% made more than 10% and that's before tax. The obvious answer is to put up rates. But as CM's reader survey shows, while 65% of respondents did manage to get an increase in 1997 the average rise was just 2.1%. You don't need to be Einstein to work out that with diesel duty going up by 5% during the same period a lot of people are merely delaying the inevitable—which is to crawl away and find a quiet spot in which to die. And that, sadly, is what all too many operators will do in 1998. Over the past two years the number of 0-licensed companies has fallen by 5%, and there's nothing to suggest that this cull has run its course. Will you survive? Probably, if you can perform the magic trick of becoming more costeffective while providing a service that earns a decent rate. But that's easier said than done. Some relief might be delivered by the Government. It's long-awaited White Paper on an integrated transport policy isn't so far away and could provide some help with higher weights, better enforcement and a realisation that if lousy rates won't kill off this industry, then congestion certainly will. But don't hold your breath. In the short term it looks like being more of what Winston Churchill promised: blood, sweat, toil and, regrettably for some, tears. That's a Happy New Year? No, we don't think so either. It seems more appropriate to say good luck—and naturally CM will be doing what it can to help give you the information that might just make the difference.