Margin of Error
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ALMOST a point of honour among hauliers is a lack of interest in numbers. Although no doubt every operator keeps a close wafch on his profitand-loss account, it is unusual if he can say with any certainty, for example, how many vehicles he has. When put to the question, he will scratch his head, make a rough calculation, try again, consult his wife, and, finally, name a figure in which he obviously has no confidence. The margin of error is in inverse ratio to the size of the fleet.
One makes allowances for the small man's statistical shortcomings. His business is to run the vehicles, not to count them. There is a general assumption that the constitution by force of British Road Services had at least the advantage of providing information of. the • growth and activities of one section of the road haulage industry, information that had not previously been available.
True to expectations, the British Transport Commission began to issue a book of impressive tables every four weeks, and even more detailed statistics appeared in the annual reports. The section devoted to B.R.S. was slender when compared with the majestic flow of figures about the railways, and when disposal began separate records of B.R.S. no longer appeared in the four-weekly tables. Nevertheless, even a few figures are better than none, and the public were grateful for a glimpse into what was happening in road transport.
Most people have taken for granted that such figures as are published are correct, but it has become difficult recently to reconcile them with information given elsewhere. Although there are no doubt explanations for most, perhaps all, of the discrepancies, it seems a pity that noattempt is made to iron them out as they appear.
Depend Upon Statistics The Road Haulage Disposal Board are vitally concerned. Their plans for the future, and their assessment of what has been done, depend largely upon statistics that only the Commission can supply. From the outset the Board seem to have been in doubt. Their first report contains a table purporting to showthe task to be achieved. The vehicles to be sold and those to be retained are divided into a number of categories. The Board took the precaution of heading the table with the word "estimated," and the improbably exact total of vehicles is given as 36.000. After various types of special vehicle have been subtracted, the total is reduced to 33,378 "other vehicles,of which 30,947 are to be
sold and 2,431 retained. .
Figures published by the chairman of the Board, Sir Malcolm Trustram Eve, as an appendix to his recommendation to the Minister of Transport on the number of general haulage vehicles the Commission should now be allowed to keep, show that the original estimate of the vehicles to be retained was not far wrong. The figure of 2,431 has been reduced slightly to 2,141, and the total of •special vehicles has risen from 1,028 to 1,222. Had Government policy not changed, therefore, there would have been available for disposal 1,398 special vehicles and 31,037 general vehicles.
Sir Malcolm. however, no longer begins with 36,000. His starting-point is 36,776 vehicles, which he immea8
diately reduces to 35,561 to allow for "vehicles bought and sold in the course of normal, replacement." Later he eliminates another 362, described as "non-runners unsaleable in transport units." (In view of complaints, one is tempted to inquire into the number of non-runners
that have actually been sold.) .
There are several other categories of vehicle net for disposal. The Commission are seeking the Minister's consent to keep 309 railway cartage vehicles, and to keep 200 service vans under C licence. The Minister has already given consent to special arrangements covering 1,982 contract-hire vehicles. Finally, there are the 1,222 special vehicles to be retained under the Transport Act, 1953, and the 7,750 vehicles that Sir Malcolm recommends should also be retained.
This leaves available for disposal no more than 23,647 vehicles, only about two-thirds of the figure of 32,441 given in the Board's first report. At the end of July, 16,748 had been sold; there are 4,106 in the parcels company; 498 meat vehicles in a single unit still in the balance; and 2,295 unsold. One may speculate whether the latter figure will also be subject to alteration, although 1,540 of the vehicles are presumably included in list 12.
Further Assumptions Assuming that sales continue up to the limit set. by Sir Malcolm and the Minister, it is possible to calculate that B.R.S. would be left with 9,570 vehicles, made up of 7,750 general haulage vehicles, 1,222 special vehicles; 398 railway cartage vehicles and 200 service vans on C licence. Further assumptions are that the contracthire vehicles will all be .sold as chattels, and that the 362 " non-runners " will be non-runners for the Commission as well as for prospective buyers.
It will be interesting to find out whether any of these calculations are of the slightest use as forecasts. Unless the information is supplied spontaneously, Or perhaps in answer to a Parliamentary question, . the earliest official indication may not be until. the publication, say in nine months' time, of the Commission's report for 1955_ Even this may have to be examined with suspicion. In the third report of the Board,. published in November, 1954, it was stated that 10,105 vehicles had been sold. In the Commission's report for the whole year, the figure was shown as 9,944. The explanation may be that the figure is made up differently, but the fact is that no two statistics seem ever to agree.
Records of vehicles held by the Commission 'under licence are no doubt contained in the files of the Licensing Authorities. According to an announcement by the Minister, the licensed fleet of B.R.S. at the end of June was 21,814, and there were 12,692 vehicles under special-A licences. If everything possible is sold, B.R.S. wilt have left 10,859 licensed vehicles, These may include the contract-hire vehicles, the fate of which had not been settled by the end of June. Again there has to be speculation and supposition.
So much depends upon accurate figures that one hopes the publication of the proposed new legislation will be preceded by a detailed statement showing exactly what has happened so far, and what the ultimate effect will be of disposal as the Government now envisage it.