Anticipating Future Needs
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rE licensing system has begotten so 'much complicated procedure in its history that effective A-licence applications today require to be buttressed by a formidable array of financial and statistical documents. Some of the latter, in fact, are often nothing more than projections of existing trends, and for this reason they are statistically suspect.One can demonstrate that existing world population trends will end in disaster if. we exclude the possibility of reversing the upward trend.
At the Tribunal recently (The Commercial Motor, July 9) Mr. A. D. P. Hurst, on behalf of the Stevenage Removal Co., fighting a lone battle with much courage, used the projected population increase of the Stevenage new town to support his contention that additional town-based removal contractors were justified. The Tribunal was not sufficiently impressed by this argument, and by its review of the earlier evidence, to concede Mr. Hurst's case. and the appeal was thrown out. That may not be the end of the matter.
Those concerned with licensing cannot ignore the 'forward projection" aspect, as modern production improvements are c4 often of such magnitude that available haulage to meet anticipated demands is essential.
In its Machin's Transport v, G. W. Pell decision, the Tribunal put it rather circumspectly: "While it may be prudent in some circumstances to licence vehicles to meet a future need, normally a considerable degree of particularity with regard to the future need is requisite." You will notice that the Tribunal begs the question with the useful word " normally ". And, apart from that, what does one make of "a considerable degree of particularity with regard to the future need "?
Predict with certainty
A manufacturer installing automated equipment can predict with certainty. subject to availability of materials and amenable labour, that his output will treble over a calculable period. Indeed. in some circumstances, the output may leap up spectacularly overnight. Prodded the market, can absorb the additional output, it follows, as night follows day. that transport will be needed to distribute the newly created wealth.
Will Licensing Authorities be eon