THE PEAK PROBLEM: Is There a Solution?
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-STEADILY, if almost imperceptibly, the problem of the peaks was growing worse, said Mr. A. F. Neal, general manager of Manchester Transport Department, in a joint paper read in London on Monday before the Institute of Transport. He added that measures of alleviation would seem rather to encourage the growth of peak-hour traffic.
With the exception of undertakings concerned mainly with holiday traffic. maximum demands on working days occurred normally between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m., and between 4 p.m. and 6.30 p.m. Within these periods there was a further accentuated peak and it was found that, in some instances, the maximum number of vehicles was in effective service for only 15 minutes in any peak, and in many cases for only an hour or less.
Off-peak Loads
If the maximum peak service were used as a basis, it was found that the off-peak varied from 27-80 per cent, in the case of local authorities and was probably less than 50 per cent. in half the undertakings. In London, however, the offpeak service was approximately 80 per cent. of full-peak service, which, to the provincial observer, was surprising. Comparison of vehicles in service was not necessarily the best. and Mr. Neal preferred a comparison of passengers carried throughout the day as giving a more accurate picture.
In• one large provincial undertaking, for example, the off-peak service, measured in vehicles, was approximately 40 per cent.; when measured in passengers carried, the service was of the order of 20 per cent. If the vehicles were fully laden at the peak period, they were only half-loaded at the off-peak.
There seemed little doubt that the position was changing for the worse. Important factors were the general change in industry from a 47-48-hour week to a 44-hour week and the wide adoption of the five-day week. There was a tendency for industrial and commercial loads to coincide.
More Passengers at Peaks
Mr. Neal quoted a large undertaking which, in the four peak hours of 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.. carried 44.9 per cent. of their passengers in 1939. Twenty years later the proportion was 48.2 per cent. From 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. the percentage of passengers was now 21.1, compared with 24.3 in 1939.
if, as seemed probable, the average working week were shortened to 42 or 424 hours, the peak period for the industrial load would be reduced by approximately 20 minutes, either in the morning or evening, or partly at both periods. Thus, the industrial peak would be even closer to the commercial peak.
If the duration of both peaks were taken at present as four hours, and this' were shortened by 20 minutes, many more vehicles would be required to provide the same service to the public with no increase in revenue. In the undertaking referred to, the estimated increase would be some 10 per cent.
So far as the effects of the peak were concerned, fleets must be large enough to carry the load. 'A large proportion was in use for not more than four or five hours per day, with some vehicles performing only one useful journey in the morning and evening.
On the other hand, vehicles on the allday service were effectively used with an average week's work per vehicle of between 50 and 60 hours. Nevertheless, a costly garage more than half-full of idle buses was neither encouraging nor satisfying. The overall costsof maintenance and servicing were increased because certain of the operations. such as cleaning, could not be related to mileage.
Staff had found -that the freedom inherent in their jobs was counterbalanced by awkward shift-working and mid-week spreadovers of 11 to 12 hours. When the peak was high it was impossible to schedule a full day's work for the crew, even when working awkward hours and spreadovers Cost greatly increased when part of the fleet was not in use and when staff had tobe paid for time when work was not available. Peak-hour loading was usually uni-directional, so that nearly half the
mileage was run with empty vehicles. Costs of peak vehicle-mileage compared with those of all-day mileage, whentaking into account fixed charges per bus, time charges per hour and mileage charges per hour, were: Peak hour. 40-45d.; all day, 25-28d. The real costs could be as high as 70-80d.
Vehicles with the -highest effective capacity roust be employed. The 72-seat trolleybus, with eight standing passengers, had done good work in mamy industrial centres. The 30-ft. motorbus, with front entrance and carrying up 'to 78 passengers, could make an equal contribution. On radial services even more standing passengers could be handled, but some work study and service-trials were necessary.
Help the Conductor
All possible aid should be given to the conductor, including a simple fare system, abolition of the halfpenny fare, universal use of the 8-ft.-wide vehicle and probably a return to the frontentrance vehicle. Services increased or duplicated, and turned short to segregate longand short-distance passengers, were all useful. So, too, were limited-stop, or even non-stop services, to housing estates.
Great savings could be accomplished by reducing the peak during the worst 15 minutes. A 30-minute extension would be beneficial and levelling of the peak within the existing peak would also help.
The common suggestion that lower fares in the off-peaks would attract passengers from the peak hours was invalid because time and convenience were rated higher than a small saving in fares.