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WHAT OF HE FUTURE .

LORD NUFFIELD, Governing Director, Morris Commercial Cars, Ltd.

SOMETIMES I have been called an incurable optimist. Whether that be true or not, I have always made it my principle to look on the possibilities of success rather than the prospect of diminution of business, and insofar as the future of the commercial vehicle industry et home and abroad is concerned, I consider that the outlook is definitely very encouraging. The industry has recently been subjsct to

legislation that has only slightly checked the rapid expansion that was notable during the early part of 1934, and I think we ought to take the broad point of view and visualize a picture that I can outline broadly, as follows:— In any community the good of the whole must be considered morekthan the benefit of any particular sector. The steps that have been taken recently by our Government have definitely established Britain as economically pre-eminent among all countries of the world.

The 'progress of the commercial vehicle industry is dependent mainly on the state of national prosperity, and whilst certain steps have been taken to sway a certain amount of the heavier business off the roads into other channels of transportation, we must never • be unmindful of the fact that the total amount of transport required in the • country to-day is higher than would

• be -the case -had the depression continued,' and we can look forward to a • continuation, and-even an increase, of the total road-borne tonnage. : The success of the .commercial ca2

vehicle industry is really a triumph for British engineering. The vehicles that are being turned out to-day from our factories are the outcome of a great deal of close study, scientific investigation, technical achievement, and commercial initiative.

Apart from the fact that competition keeps us all on our toes, the transport industry can rely with confidence on our commercial-vehicle-producing factories to leave no stone unturned in their efforts to give still better value, not only in the vehicles themselves, in which continuity of stabilized design is very important, but also in respect of the provision of a series of services that embraces all angles of the transport operator's undertaking, and thus assist him in every way.

C. 'W. REEVE, Chairman and Managing Director, The Associated Equipment Co., Ltd.

COMMENTING on the prospects of passenger and commercial motor vehicles in England and abroad. I do so with a feeling of unexcited but convinced optimism as regards future development. Road motor vehicles both in this country and many others overseas, although they have reached such an advanced position both in design and performance, and have become a valuable asset in national daily life, will progress still further. Indeed, speaking for this company especially, progress and improvement are dominating features of our policy and activities.

At present, road transport is labouring under what I have heard described as a "welter of legislation," and when one realizes that the restrictions since 1930 alone are included in no less than three principal Acts of Parliament, and some 70 odd Orders comprising nearly 460 individual regulations as to the length, height and width of motor vehicles, their weight and speed, the roads upon which they are used, the total number which may be employed in any service, etc., this can scarcely be an incorrect statement. No one hopes more sincerely than I that wise laws will prevail, and that the road-transport industry, both for operators and manufacturers, will be freed from further irrational and restrictive measures, I think this will be so.

There will, doubtless, be much advance in the important matter of weight reduction in chassis, whilst maintaining ample strength for the conveyance of maximum pay-loads.

The increasing use of lightweight lorries, placed in ser vice chiefly to evade the heavy taxation, is, in my opinion, not sound development of road transport. Where large quantities of material have to be transported at one time, this will lead not only to a multiplicity of running costs, but the very serious matter of congestion on the road will be ,aggravated. Heavy-duty vehicles would transport large loads more cheaply and " efficiently.

I predict that there will be, in the not-far-distant future, greater advance in the development of the compression-ignition engine. and that this type of prime mover will enjoy a much wider application than it does at present.

The most useful experimental work at present being carried out by British and foreign railways will lead to its further employment in this sphere.

There are healthy signs of a greater demand in the future, from Empire and other overseas countries, for British road-transport units. This, I think, will be the British motor vehicle manufacturers' just reward for the care and thought that they have applied to the development of their products. So far as A.E.C. vehicles are concerned, prospects from certain overseas markets are distinctly encouraging.

MR. T. B. KEEP, Managing Dirctor, Comnier Cars, Ltd.

MITH the coming of the Road and W Rail Traffic Act, 1933, the industry seems, for the time being, to have reached the end of the long series of restrictive—one is inclined to write " punitive "—measures. The most important effect of recent legislation, combined with the present system of vehicle taxation, is the evolution of the,TightWeight vehicle designed to take the maximum load at the maximum permitted speed for the lowest tax. Insofar as these " stimuli " have encouraged the use of better materials and methods of construction, and closer investigation into scientific methods of weight reduction, this is all to the good, but one views with alarm the tendency in some quarters to encourage the sale of this type of vehicle for overloads which it was certainly never designed to carry.

, This encroachment on the margin of safety is bound to have serious repercussions, not only in this country, but in the export field, where in many markets the physical conditions of vehicle operation are very bad.

We shall, in the future, undoubtedly see a large increase in the use of the compression-ignition engine for all types of vehicle,_ and the policy of this company in being the first to offer this type of engine as an alternative to petrol for the 30-cwt., 2-ton and 3-ton vehicles has been amply justified.

Another type of vehicle which undoubtedly has a very large future is. the small tractor, used in conjunction with an articulated trailer, There is no doubt that this is increasing in popularity, both from the point of view of lighter tax and the great advantage of easy manceuvrability.

To enable us to expand our export trade means that a great deal of bard work has still to be done. We must study very carefully overseas markets and conditions. The information gained must be put to practical use both when new designs are contemplated or sales campaigns organized. It is essential that we, in this country, produce a vehicle which will operate overseas at least as well as, if not better than, those produced by other countries.

Price is a very great factor, and every effort must be made to produce our vehicles at the lowest possible cost consistent with reliability and cheap • ness of operation. There is an enormous future for the British vehicle in overseas markets if this be done. That we shall have to face even more severe competition' than we have had in the past is evideni7, and we must use every endeavour to combat it, but I look to the future with great confidence.

MR. E. L. CADWALLADER, Joint General Manager, C.A.V.-Bosch, Ltd.

WHAT of the future? A few months ago this question would have presented an exceedingly difficult problem to answer with any degree of accuracy.

but, from my own observations, made of late while on business tours throughout the country, my personal view is that without a doubt the future of the commercial vehicle is a very bright and happy one.

You may ask my reasons for taking this view. First, it is apparent that them is a definite indication of an increase in the spending power throughout the country, and, in addition, now that operators know the worst regarding legislation for road transport, they can, with confidence, consider replacing their obsolete machines from the magnificent range of vehicles now being produced.

In this connection it will be appreciated that many transport operators have held up their development programmes all too long, simply because of these difficulties ,of legislation, and, now that their confidence has been restored by knowing just what they can or cannot do, it is certain that, with the ever-prevailing desire of the close-thinking operator to obtain the highest efficiency from his rolling stock, all the 'obsolete types will be taken out of service at the first opportunity and replaced by up-to-date machines.

Secondly, there is the growing popularity of the trolleybus, which is superseding the 'existing tramway systems in many parts of the country, whilst, farther, the oil-engined vehicle holds out such a tremendous inducement towards new purchases for replacement of existing machines, due to low running and maintenance costs and the natural desire of the operator for a modern fleet.

So much for the home market. Now let us review the position overseas. Statistics to hand of tentative inquiries•and orders definitely placed from the Colonies, the recent one from South Africa in particular, prove without doubt that we stand supreme in the commercial-vehicle world, notwithstanding the keen competition from foreign manufacturers. There are definite indications that the Colonies appreciate the improvement in design and increased efficiency of the British commercial vehicle, and, now that they, too, are showing distinct interest in the trolleybus proposition, it is only reasonable to assume that we can look forward with confidence to an increased export trade for commercial vehicles of every type.

Deliveries both at home and abroad will obviously be urgently required, due, as mentioned previously, to new purchases having been deliberately held up.. It is for this reason that I hope all the manufacturers in this country will have a share of the increased business and thus obtain their reward for the time given and the trouble and expense that have been encountered in carrying out the research and experimental work which have directly resulted in British products being so much to the fore.

• COMMANDER J. W. THORNYCROFT, Commercial Vehicle Sales Manager, John I. Thornycroft and Co., Ltd.

I T must be with some uncertainty that the commercial-vehicle industry regards the future, owing to the great number of factors which can have important reactions. They may be summarized under the following

headings:— (1) Future taxation scheme and unladen weight of chassis. (2) Modifications in Regulations, co far as construction' and use of freight and passenger chassis are concerned.

(3) Reduction in the number of manufacturing concerns through amalgamation.

(4) The probable change of status to Public Utility Boards of the four main-' line railway companies.

(5) Restriction of Class A and B licences and the amalgamation of the road-haulage operators into larger units, with the gradual elimination of the small operators.

(6) The substitution of compressionignition engines for petrol units.

(7) Improved gearboxes and easychange-speed mechanisms. .

(8) The gradual closer co-operation between the manufacturing and sales and service sides of the commercial motor industry, ending in a single control.

Taking each point in its turn: ..(1) The question of future taxation must have considerable influence on a design of chassis and the types which users will find most economical d'to operate. At the present time the taxation is hazed on unladen weight, which, although encouraging manufacturers to utilize the best possible rnatenal with not too much regard to cost, also tends to encourage manufacturers to offer types with insufficient margin of safety to be compatible with .public safety.

I look forward to the basis of taxation being altered in the near future from unladen weight to total weight imposed on the road. Should this take place, the unhealthy condition now existing, whereby users are encouraged to buy a number of small machines, pay the minimum tax, and grossly overload, will be checked.

(2) At the present time there are many of the Construction and Use Regulations which cannot be based on any reasoning other than an arbitrary ruling. For instance, a four-wheeled passenger vehicle is limited to an overall length of 27 ft. 6 ins., whereas a 'six-wheeled vehicle may have an overall length of 30 ft., although there is nothing to make a four-wheeled vehicle of the same length any more unmanageable or less safe than a six-wheeled type. Another case being the right of a vehicle the unladen weight of which is under 2i tons to be loaded with 6 or 7 tons and driven at a speed of 30 m.p.h., whereas a more robust fourwheeled chassis weighing 4 tons, loaded with the same weight and having a much greater margin of safety, is limited to 20 m.p.h.

Such matters as these must have reasoned consideration from the Ministry of Transport officials, and the Regulations modified to allow of more fair and equitable conditions.

c34 (3) The amalgamation of operating companies must eventually have repercussions in the manufacturing industry, owing to the reduction in the number of purchasers. This will necessarily increase competition, which already is on such a plane that business risks are taken that no banking institution would consider. • The industry will find it extremely difficult to make sufficient profit to permit of reasonable expenditure on research work and new equipment, with consequent danger of our falling behind our overce-as competitors.

(4) The present four main-line railway companies are' likely to find it somewhat difficult to obtain new money from the public to finance the enormous new expenditure which 'must be undertaken in order to modernize their undertakings to keep pace with modern develOpments. This must result. in Government support in some form or other. mall probability they will become• Public Utility Boards with definite mortogolies with regard to the transport of passengers and freight. Should this take place, it will be essential that the public and the trade be properly safeguarded from inefficiency, and there should be restrictions preventing the Railway Board from manufacturing its own equipment or carrying out any function other than transport operation by land, water or air.

(5) Owing to the necessity of more clerical work and office organization required to run a road haulage business the conditions must become such that profitable operation cannot he carried out by a small operator, which must result in amalgamations and a closer connection between road haulage interests and the railway companies.

(6) There is no doubt that the oil engine will more and more quickly become a substitute for the petrol unit for all types of commercial vehicle, provided that the present cost of fuel or taxation basis be not altered. It must not be forgotten that actually, so far as the oil companies are concerned, it is as costly to produce,. Diesel oil as petrol, and, no doubt, if it be found that profits on the sale of petrol are much reduced, increases in the price of Diesel oil will have to be made.

(7) At the present time there are many forms of improved transmission being offered, but I am inclined to think that it will be some time before the maintenance cost of these new transmission arrangements has been get down to a sufficiently low figure as compared with the orthodox type of friction clutch and gearbox, and that where the absolute minimum operating costs are essential no change is likely to take place for some time to come. On luxury services, where higher fares or rates can be obtained, some form of easy-change gear and fluid coupling will become standard practice (8) Lastly, so far as the trade is concerned, I forecast that there must be very much closer co-operation between the manufacturing and sales and service sides. This may come about through manufacturers taking a financial interest in their distributors and thereby obtaining a voice in the management, or by manufacturers establishing their own sales and service branches throughout the country. The number of big operators is increasing so quickly that it is usual to find that they insist on dealing with service matters direct with the manufacturer.

The future of the commercial vehicle export business is very much at the mercy of international politics, but I do feel that the Government must do everything to help the British industry, as the market for commercial road vehicles must be ever extending, and if this country does not obtain the business some other country will, to the detriment of oar overseas-pur4 *lasing power and standard of living.

the past considerable damage has been done by firms in the industry selling vehicles overseas without any proper arrangements for service. It is difficult to see how this can be . prevented, except through the intelligence of the overseas purchasers in insisting at the time of purchase • that there are service facilities, and not being swayed by the lowest price quoted. Overseas users sometimes think that .British firms are inclined to cater primarily for the home market, but I can assure them that this is not the case and that chassis are produced and tried out in this country under conditions which are very much more arduous than anything likely to be experienced abroad.

MR. P. W. McGUIRE, Managing Director, Armstrong.Saurer Commercial Vehicles, Ltd.

PROGRESS in the commercial vehicle industry during the past 10 years has been one of the outstanding features of general engineering development, but one must feel that progress has been so' rapid that it has allowed the industry to perfect only the details of the original conception of a commercial vehicle—the general layout today being almost identical with the original conception.

Certainly the improvements in the details which make up a commercial vehicle have been outstanding—the beauty of the sweetly running Modern internal combustion engine is a pleasure to an engineer. Again details of brak

ing have reached a high standard, and the achievement of a noiseless transmission is another feature of which the engineers of this industry may be proud. The same tribute may be paid to tyre manufacturers and the producers of electrical equipment—all of which have reached a very high standard for their products.

To all deep-thinking and interested people in this industry, however, there must be a feeling that the time has now come when still further and more drastic changes can be expected in commercial vehicles. Of recent date, probably by far the most important development has been in the acceptance of the compression-ignition engine to replace the petrol engine; also the adoption in a big branch of the industry of fluid transmission, as opposed to direct transmission, and it can be anticipated that in view of the enormous progress already made over a very few years on these two details alone, that a still-wider field will be covered during the next decade.

The future of the commercial vehicle will have to follow the dictates of legislation in various countries, also the very considerable problem of fuel supplies, and already our designers are inakirig a massed attack on the reduction of the weight-per-horse-power ratio, and an increase of the pay-loadunladen-weight-ratio—this, naturally, in view of the stimulus provided by legislation.

It would be of interest to note here that in 1926 a Saurer petrol lorry in a certified R.A.C. trial produced for the first time a gross ton-mileage in excess of 100, whereas a trial conducted under similar circumstances by the R.A.C. during the past few weeks with an Armstrong-Saurer oil-engined vehicle produced certified figures of 211.9 gross ton-miles per gallon of fuel—showing the enormous 'advances made over a very few years. One almost hesitates to predict what the figures will be in, say, another five or six years.

The design of engines to use fuels readily obtainable in various countries is already exciting interest—particularly abroad, and one hears of national efforts to develop such engines, which would be so urgently required in case of national necessity.

Perhaps the most spectacular change which may be expected over the next few years is the change in the layout of the chassis as we now know it— particularly when one realizes that the chassis of to-day is a very elegant copy of the horse and cart. Already in England the A.E.C. Q-type bus has made the first real step in this direction.

MR. A. W. HUBBLE, Managing Director, Crossley Motors, Ltd.

PROVIDED that our industry and the road-transport interests, on which it depends, are given an opportunity to recuperate from the spate of regulations with which they have had to contend during 1934, I believe 1935 will be a record year.

At home I anticipate that the demand for British vehicles will be stimulated by the returning tide of prosperity. Abroad, I believe that we have not yet touched the fringe of our Empire markets, and that the vehicles sent to countries like South Africa, Australia and New Zealand will bring many repeat orders. At the risk oi provoking a return of the criticism 1 have enjoyed whenever I have publicly acclaimed the compreasion-ignition engine in the past, I venture to prophesy that 1935 will virtually see the end of the petrol engine in favour of the compressionignition engine for commercial vehicles, and our pioneer work in this direction will come into its own.

There are two other points I would like to mention. The first is the evil of overloading. More money is lost by operators of goods vehicles because of overloading than they realize. To IdII the goose that lays the golden egg is bad business, yet many operators so overload as to consign promising young vehicles to early graves, and nothing else creates quite so much bad blood between operators and manufacturers as this short-sighted, dangerous and uneconomic practice. May 1935 see the end of overloading.

The other point on which I feel strongly is the craze for undue lighten

ing of vehicles to save taxation. If the authorities insist on penalizing sound, safe construction by taxing vehicles so constructed at a higher rate than flimsily built lighter ones, it still pays the operator who can see further than his first quarter's tax to insist first of all on a sound vehicle designed for safety on the road, with an ample margin of safety all round, even if it means a few shillings a week mote in taxation. May 1935 see a saner view of the weight problem. Finally, I hope the future holds a full measure of prosperity for our own and allied industries.

MR. H. R. HOOD BARRS, Managing Director, Carrimore Six Wheelers, Ltd., G. Scarnmell and Nephew, Ltd., The Steel Barrel Co., Ltd.

MO longer is the coming ofa rail1 11 way eagerly awaited to bring prosperity. The Road Age has changed that, and to-day a new road immediately creates enormous increases in values. Can it be doubted, therefore, that the future of road transport holds wonderful possibilities?

The industry has for too long been controlled and stifled by politics, and this will continue the predominant issue. The limits of repression have been reached in certain directions and there are faint but hopeful indications that in some countries moderating policies will be pursued. Big roads programmes are, I believe, coming, and the need for increased revenue for maintenance may induce saner scales of taxation.

The swing of the pendulum is certain, but at home no effort must he relaxed to counter the anti-social

activities of the railways. All interested in maintaining the freedom of transport should support road transport and insist on their suppliers delivering by road. Only in this way will the railways be compelled to realize that their costly and questionable attempts to destroy road haulage will recoil on them, as also the snatching of traffic at entirely uneconomic rates.

Contemporaneous With the crystallization of a new roads policy, railway mileage will be curtailed until trunk services become the limit of their economic working. Sales of vehicles will, I foresee, be on increasing scales, and overseas possibilities for British machines, the world's finest products, leap to the imagination.

The prospects of the haulier at home are not yet clear. The proceedings in the Traific Courts make ugly reading and offend against that sense of British justice which most of us possess. That iniquitous measure, the Road and Rail .Traffic Act, 1933, by limiting the use of machines. restricting hiring and increasing rates, will cause large additions to the number of vehicles in service. Economic air freight transport is not yet ready, so with the aid of the oil engine, research and design, the commercial `vehicle can confidently look to the future.

I advocate a strong roads policy and united opposition against further futile restrictions and legislation.

MR. C. J. BARTLETT, Managing Director, Vauxhall Motors, Ltd.

TO a great degree the future can be discussed only from the actualities of the present, but so far as the indications show, the future seems charged with a steady degree of hope and optimism. The fears we had over the new regulations and restrictions are proving smaller with experience than they were as we faced their oncomings, although these restrictions are still vexatious things to live with and dangerous trends that we have to recognize and evaluate.

The healthiness of the commercial vehicle, in the circumstances, is certainly one of the bright spots in our general business recovery, and I look forward to the coming year with, lots of confidence that it will continue to be a steadily bright spot. No spectacular expansion seems likely, but the even continuation of business which is suggested by appearances is, in these days, a thing to be grateful for.

In the export world there are still great fields to conquer; and I cannel help feeling a little sad—in this realization—that our friends in some branches of industry, who supply our needs, appear to think the occasion a suitable one to advance prices generally. Several of the main raw materials of our manufacturing industry are being actively advanced in price with what I feel to be extreme shortness of vision; and I hope that these efforts will ;not have the feared possible effect of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs or throttling that volume which courage and hard work have so strenuously achieved. That result would be nothing short of a calamity in our growing export fields, but rising costs and expanding volume rarely sleep in the same bed.

To our friends in the steel industry particularly I would commend this thought in the hope that it may be our satisfaction to fight untrammelled in those export fields where, although foreign competition is strong, we believe most emphatically there lies a great opportunity for the British commercial vehicle and Britain generally.

MR. P. C. YOUNG, Chairman,

The Sentinel Waggon Works, Ltd.

THERE can be no possible question • 1 but that here in Great Britain, as in every other country capable of material progress, the demand for commercial road vehicles will, over a period of years, continue to increase. There can be no return to animal transport; the machine replaces the animal for the same reasons that the draught animal replaced the man. It is when machine meets machine—the machine on the road meets the machine on the

rail—that the real economic tug-o'-war occurs.

In this country some traffic has been taken from the railways by the roads that may go back to railways because they can handle it as well, or nearly so, and at lower differential cost, but if there be sound economic reasons for re-transfer to the railways of some longdistance traffic, there are equally cogent economic reasons for surrendering to road transport much traffic which the railways still retain.

If mechanical road transport had been available when our railways were planned, two stations out of three would never have been built. It takes a long time to realize that, although they have been built and have served a temporary purpose, it will, under the conditions of to-day, prove an economy to close down these stations.

Real co-ordination of road and rail transport is coming. Container traffic is yet in its infancy. Rail-cum-road traffic will increase in volume, and the average length of the road haul where road and rail are co-ordinated will increase with the closing down of re dundant stations. On balance, then, although there is likely to be readjustment, because it is economically sound, the roads will not lose goods traffic to the railways.

Although it is safe to prophesy an increased business in commercial vehicles, whilst year by year the number due for renewal increases, and the true saturation point has not been reached, it is much more hazardous'to foretell what types of commercial vehicle will prove fittest under the conditions of the .future, and consequently survive. Even here, however, one principle can be laid down.

In the long run, the working out of physical laws in engineering practice for the greatest _good of the greatest number will decide the issue. The vehicle which is inherently best for a particular purpose will survive, not the vehicle which is made to appear more economical on account of the regulations or the scales of taxation that happen at a particular moment to be in force.

" Economical " must, however, be interpreted in its widest sense—politically economic, taking into account the interest not only of vehicle users, but of every section of the community. For example, somewhat arbitrary scales of taxation are not going to give oil any permanent advantage over petrol that it does not possess for physical reasons. There is no valid ground for showing favour to one imported fuel rather than another, however sound may be the economic argument for encouraging the use of indigenous fuel or fuel than can be cheaply produced from native material. Consequently. Diesel oil will not in future retain. the fictitious advantage which it has enjoyed in the recent past.

Principles which apply here will in the end be applied elsewhere. If we make vehicles which are inherently the best for their particular purpose we shall obtain our share of the business abroad.