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Sales enter a period of calm
Page 22
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The surge in CV registrations caused by digitachs is over — but with the Euro-4 deadline fast approaching, how long will the stability last?
INSIDERS' PERSPECTIVES
Views from the SIV MT
"CV registrations are stabilising," says Christopher Macgowan, SMMT chief executive. This is despite the distortion caused by digitachs as operators scrambled to beat the 1 May deadline. Truck registrations have now returned to the stable volumes and modest growth we saw up until a few months ago. But the introduction of Euro-4 in October will upset the apple cart again for a period, making registration volumes in 2006 diff icult to call."
Robin Dickeson, manager of CV affairs, adds: If you order a truck now, when is it going to be delivered? You can't track demand because you can't see when someone places an order.
"We're expecting another spike in September [preEuro-4], although it's difficult to say how big it will be. I don't think it will be as severe as the one caused by digital tachographs because they were potentially a showstopper. If you order a Euro-3 truck, you can still register it and put it on the road after the Euro-4 deadline -which wasn't the case with the change from analogue to digital tachographs. But certainly there will be a scramble to Euro-3 trucks; I think we'll see the pull-forward beginning to show at the end of this month and into next month.
At the light end, registrations are down a littlebut we were expecting that. Very light vans are down 9%, medium vans are up 4% and heavy vans are up about the same. In terms of the rolling year this is within 1-2% of where it was a year ago. That's to be expected van registrations have been insulated from the distortions caused by digital tachographs, and also there's the fact that a lot of new metal is coming into the showrooms and beginning to go on sale. Talk to any of the manufacturers and they'll tell you that managing the run-out of an old model is at least as complex as bringing a new vehicle in. They don't want to get caught out with stocks at the wrong Levels.
"There's no one thing driving the van marketthe construction sector is booming, home delivery is unaffected by the fall in high-street sales, and so on. Overall the market is pretty stable."