ERF
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1. Obviously we at ER F feel there is an expanding road transport market in the EEC otherwise we would not be developing a European vehicle and appointing a distributor network. We are also looking to take business from our European competitors.
Looking at the rate of growth in this period, as a rough guide I would equate it to the growth in the general standard of living, and hence in movement of goods and services. • 2. Statistically, France is the best vehicle market in Europe; we have already appointed distributors there and the first vehicles will be going to France in the next few weeks.
For the last two years we have concentrated on Belgium. We will, of course, be considering the vehicle market in Holland, Germany, Italy and Denmark in the coming years, and will be making service coverage available in these countries soon.
3. In the UK there are now only three heavy-vehicle manufacturers outside the British Leyland Group, and further rationalization is unlikely. However, it is possible that any one of these three could come to a marketing or component usage agreement with a European company.
Most of the major European manufacturers are in fairly large groups already and further mergers are unlikely, though perhaps certain companies will opt out due to increased competition. There could be a point reached where the user will resist the elimination of competition by mergers or agreements.
4. This depends upon the road network standard in a particular country. For motorways and main trunk roads I feel the European suggestion for 40 tons with 11 metric tons axle weight is correct, and the ability to handle 40ft containers an absolute necessity.
Generally speaking, a 10-ton axle weight is right for most British roads.
5. I personally do not think that gas turbines will become the preferable power unit to the diesel within the next 20 years, although there will be a movement in this direction. Environmentally, development of electrical power must occur, but I do not think an economic package will be ready in 20 years.
The basic vehicle will be improved in all departments; automatic and semi-atuomatic transmission will be the norm; cabs with the noise and comfort levels of the best passenger cars will be required; closed coolant systems, sealed throw-away units, and suspension and lighting, equipment will be developed and improved. Safety will be a major design factor, so will reduction in down-time.