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Pio GRESS IN THE PASSE'
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GE ANSP
RT INDUST 1°:
THE POSITION AND P OSPECTS
WE have begun to think nationally on the subject of passenger transport. The Royal Commission, the Road Traffic Bill and general Parliamentary interest in road matters have focused attention to a point where it becomes clear, amid much that is obscure, uncertain and problematical, that the motorbus has now attained a dominant position in local and interurban traffic.
It carries, collectively, more passengers per annum (the estimated figures being approximately 5,000 millions) than do any of its rivals, and its service value to the community is recognized, in all unbiased quarters, as a prime factor in the economics of all phases of passenger transport.
It is, indeed, no exaggeration to say that the passenger-road-service industry is to-day one of the most important factors in the social and industrial affairs of the country.
The present is not, however, perhaps, the most convenient period in which to analyse the position and prospects of the industry. Its organization, as we have known it in recent years, evolving slowly from something approaching chaos to a reasonable and growing stability, is once again in a state of flux, and, whilst we can perceive the broad outlines of a new and inherently dif f e r en t organization that is being fashioned, the present position is undefined.
Two principal matters have combined to bring about this condition of affairs. First. the active participation of the main-line railway companies in passenger road services on an extensive scale throughout the country, both independently and in co-operation with existing companies and municipal undertakings, and, secondly, the prospect of drastic and far-reaching changes in road-service conditions that must inevitably result when the Road Traffic Bill is placed upon the Statute Book.
The more we explore the possibilities and economic prospects of expansion in transport facilities, the clearer it becomes that the passenger road-service industry is capable of a development as great as—and, possibly, greater than—that during the past decade. The table at the foot of the first column gives the approximate numbers of motor-hackney vehicles licensed in the years 1920-1929.
This table discloses the fact that in 10 years the number of public-service vehicles (i.e., motorbuses, trolley-buses, motor coaches, taxicabs and similar private-hire cars) on the roads of Great Britain has increased by no less than 28 per cent.
A. proportionate increase during the next 10 years would then give a total of about 123,000 motor-hackney vehicles. That rate of increase, however, is not likely zo be maintained.
It will be noted from the table that the rate of progress is diminishing. It will also be perceived that there were actual decreases in 1927 and 1928, and it may be explained that this is entirely due to decreases in the number of taxicabs and vehicles seating not more than 14 persons. Some detailed statistics illustrating this point were given in The Commercial Motor dated November 5th last year.
The gradual withdrawal of the taxicab, the private-hire and similarly employed small-capacity vehicle, and their replacement by the large-capacity machine are a feature of the present phase of road-transport development and one that is likely, for obvious reasons, to continue. Further classification is, therefore, necessary, if we are to view the industry in perspective.
As an aid to this end, it will be convenient to bring up to date the statistics that were specially compiled and first published in the issue of The Commercial Motor already referred to, showing our estimates of the relative proportions of the various classes of motor-hackney. These are given below.
Here it will be seen that in four years the number of buses has increased by a third (33i, per cent.) and that the number of motor coaches etc., has been nearly doubled
(90 per cent. increase). It may also be noted that the proportion of buses and coaches to the total number of public-service vehicles has increased from 25 per cent. to 40 per cent., whilst the class for "taxicabs and miscellaneous" has correspondingly decreased from 75 per cent. to 60 per cent.
Will that rate of increase in motorbuses and coaches be maintained? We do not feel disposed to assume the mantle of the prophet, but for a variety of reasons, which only a psychologist, perhaps, could adequately explain, the public prefers the motorbus and coach, and, when choice is reasonably possible, chooses to travel by them.
Where that choice has been exercised, the outcome has been disastrous, in a financial sense, to rival facilities, and finance, as we all realize, is a serious matter where the provision of any public service is concerned. Public transport, in any case, has never been a " get-rich-quick " proposition "to the legitimate operator.
Where Public Choice is Hampered.
Where, in many cases, the public has not been permitted to choose between the motorbus and its rivals, we may, perhaps, accept the plea that the ban has been enforced on grounds of public utility and convenience—for the public benefit—and not solely on grounds of profit and loss. At the same time, we may remember that nobody really likes competition and nobody likes discarding capital assets, which in the absence of such competition, might have continued as a source of profit.
We may, however, claim that the time has come when the idea (which, in some quarters, still prevails) that the motorbus is a subsidiary form of transport must be discarded. Co-ordination of transport facilities is, beyond question, a laudable ambition, but it must mean something more than " Hobson's choice." The tendency to restrict the public selection of conveyance to any particular mode of transport which happens already to exist in a district is a bar to real progress. It resolves itself into a tendency to return to and perpetuate the status quo ante and would certainly, in the long run, prove wasteful and futile.
These matters are of importance now that the coordination of road and rail services, with the railway companies as principals, or co-partners, is an accepted fact of future development. There can hardly be any question but that in the not distant future every important road-transport concern will have one or more of the main-line railway companies as shareholders, With a continuance of initiative and enterprise, both on the part of the road-service operators and the railways, this alliance of interests is likely to prove fruitill in benefits to the industry as a whole.
The control of licensing by Area Commissioners concerned with the co-ordination of transport facilities is felt by some authorities to be a matter of serious importance to the smaller concerns, the days of independence of which they consider to be numbered. However, whatever may be the fate of the irresponsible snatcher of passengers in peak-load hours, we are not inclined to be unduly pessimistic concerning the small operators of essential public services. Their position, regularized under the new regime, may quite easily be more protected than it is at present. It has to be recognized that the inclusion in the activities of the industry, at the present time, of so many private individuals and unincorporated concerns, and of others, to whom the transport of passengers is in the nature of a subsidiary or supplemental business, is a factor which operates against stability. Furthermore, it works against the possibility of compiling a complete record, or of making any reliable estimates of their total number, the nature of the services rendered, the number of vehicles employed, or the amount of capital invested.
Nevertheless, we have made some efforts in this direction, and sufficient information is available regarding the organized section of the industry to provide an indication of its extent and the trend of development.
The number of road-transport concerns of all classes, recorded in Garcke's "Motor Transport Year Book," Published by the Electrical Press, Ltd., for 1927, was 3,430, of which 670 were definitely known to be operating 18,985 buses, whilst 470 concerns were operating 2,790 coaches. In 1928 the total number of mechani
cal-transport concerns was 3,625, of which 630 were operating 22,768 buses and 490 were operating 3,153 coaches. The amount of capital invested in respect of these undertakings was, in 1927, approximately £24,000,000, . and, in 1928, £27,500,000. It is important to note that these figures are in respect only of operating concerns which have made returns of vehicles in service.
It will be noted that there is a reduction in the number of bug-operating companies. This is largely due to the amalgamation and absorption of comparatively small undertakings into larger traffic concerns. A matter of some interest which is not disclosed by the statistics as presented above, is the fact that these small organizations have been taken over at values considerably in excess of the original capital investment.
The prices offered by the railway companies for ordinary shares in the large public companies in which they have acquired interests provide other striking in stances of capital appreciation. The wise policy adopted by the sound concerns of financing expansion and development, so far as possible, out of revenue, is responsible for this happy state of 'affairs.
We are not yet, unfortunately, in a position to give comparative figures for the year 1929. We are, however, definitely able to say that the progress of existing undertakings (as a whole) shows no abatement, and in services, vehicles and finance, considerable. advances have been made.
Apart from established undertakings, new enterprises are, in large numbers, making their appearance.. Approximately, 125 new motorbus and coach companies were registered in 1929, with a total nominal capital of £4,331,650, and these figures, of course, take, no account of private individuals and unincorporated firms.
Companies with Big Capital.
Amongst the coach and bus concerns are two companies of exceptional importance, namely the new Scottish Motor Traction Co., Ltd., with a capital of £1,800,000, and the Western National Omnibus Co., Ltd., with a capital of £1,000,000. The next largest has a capital of £250,000, followed by two with £150,000, each and two with £100,000 each. Twenty-four others have nominal capitals ranging from £10,000 to £60,000. and a further nineteen are capitalized between £10,000 and 15,000. The remainder (75 companies) have a smaller nominal capital than £5,000, and 33 of theseless than £1,000.
Not all, obviously, are to be regarded as strictly new enterprises ; the largest are reconstructions of existing undertakings, whilst others have been formed to incorporate private firms already in operation. Nevertheless, many are definitely new.
In addition to the companies, a number of municipalities has, during the past year, initiated bus services, and more are seeking Parliamentary powers.
It will be gathered that, despite the uncertainties to which we have referred, the industry is in an exceedingly healthy condition. There is, in all directions,. vitality and growth, and, not less important, an increasing recognition of the immense economic and social value of the services rendered to the community_