Pennies from Heaven
Page 41
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HAULIERS would scarcely be human if they did not ho that the application by the British 'ILL Transport Commission for an increase in freight charges will be allowed. Trade and industry, nationalized and unnationalized alike, have met with a chorus of lamentation the suggestion that another 1611 per cent.. should be added to their transport costs. The haulier may sympathize with their distress', but he cannot avoid remembering that the increase may well influence traders to transfer traffic from the railways to him.
B.T.C. Supplies the Necessary Whatever the faults of the Commission, it can usually be depended upon to provide any statistics that may be required. The haulier would be. content with the knowledge that some transfer of traffic was likely. It would not occur to him even to guess the precise volume of that traffic. He ought to be pleased and grateful, therefore, to learn that the question has been posed and the answer given with the celerity and accuracy of a calculating machine. Somebody turns the handle, there is a whirring sound deep down inside. the efficient, adequate, economical and properly integrated machine, and out comes the figure.
, It is reached in this way. The railway receipts affected by the proposed increase in charges are estimated at £210,400,000 during 1950: The 161 per cent. uplift would bring the total to £246,600,000. The probable loss of traffic is put at 4 per cent. of this figure. In other words, if the application be granted, there will be traffic to the tune of about £10,000,000 going begging during the year.'
The B.T.C. has even split the figure of £10,000,000 among the main classes of goods. It estimates that its losses will amount to £2,000,000 on coal, a little under £1,000,000 on minerals, and the remaining £7,000,000 on merchandise, including parcels and livestock.
Frequent reference was made to the 110,000,000 during the inquiry into the Commission's application. The result may depend partly on the extent to which the figure is reliable. If the increase in charges be granted, therefore, transport providers under free enterprise may deem it almost a national duty to ensure the abstraction during 1950 of at least as much traffic as the Commission has estimated! Otherwise the public may come, to regard the Commission, not with the affection due to a four-adjective calculating machine but with the disdain and neglect accorded to a slot machine that, even when it shows the winning figures, refuses to disgorge the jackpot.
The Commission is not prepared to guess in what proportions the abstracted traffic will be shared. It has decided views, however, on where the traffic will go. Some of it, if the Commission is to be believed, will " just cease"; it will apparently "fade upon the midnight with no pain." This traffic, as they say in Twenty Questions," is abstract rather than abstracted.
The animal, vegetable and mineral objects will be distributed, some to coastwise shipping, some to road hauliers, and some to C-licence holders. The possibility of sonic going to the Road Haulage Executive does not seem to be considered seriously.
According to the Commission's evidence, the R.H.E. will be busy throughout 1950 putting its house in order. It may increase its net receipts (or profits) by 11,000,000, but this will be counter-balanced by the necessity of paying an extra £1,000,000 as interest on stock, presumably issued as compensation to hauliers whose undertakings have been acquired. If this means that what may be called the R.H.E.'s " real " profits will be no greater in 1950 than they were in 1949, the Commission cannot be expecting that much of the traffic lost by the railways as a result of increased charges would be kept in the family.
If it be assumed that the greater part of the abstracted traffic will be shared among coastwise shipping, hauliers and C-licence holders, it follows that the Commission should much prefer hauliers to have it. At some time or other (so runs the Commission's creed) the golden age of transport will dawn, when the perfect charges scheme will be agreed, efficient, adequate and economical transport will be on tap for every citizen of the Welfare State, and lorry, barge and wagon will live henceforth in blissful integration.
On that auspicious occasion, the Commission, 'like Bo-peep, will go to seek the traffic it lost in 1950 If the traffic has put to sea, or is carried by the trader in his own vehicle, the Commission may find it difficult to locate, and even more difficult to recapture. The man who took out a C licence in 1950 will be reluctant to dispose of his vehicles; and the Commission is equipped to be arn2hibious only in fresh water.
The Haulier Intimidated
Where, on the other hand, a haulier has the traffic, the Commission's task will be ridiculously easy. • It is more than likely to have reduced him to such a state in the interim that a quiet request to hand over the traffic is all that will be necessary. If he proves recalcitrant, the withdrawal of his permit, or opposition to the renewal of his licence, will soon have the desired effect of bringing him to heel.
The haulier, therefore, if he wishes to ingratiate himself with the Commission, should bend every effort to obtain his share of the £10,000,000, the crumbs from the rich man's table. lithe preparation of the charges scheme be any criterion, the golden age has already been postponed another two years, until 1952, and may be even farther away. If the haulier can attract the surplus traffic, he may reasonably expect to have the benefit of it for a long time. If the turn of events on February 23 be favourable, he may well be able to keep it.
[As explained on pages 50-51, the Ulster Transport Authority, the counterpart in Northern Ireland of the B.T.C., is in much the same position. It cannot make ends meet, and has covetous eyes on the traffic carried by ancillary users.—ED.1