Growth to 1992
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• Sales of trucks in Britain are likely to continue growing over the next five years buoyed by the strength of investment in the domestic economy, says market analyst DRI in its report on the European truck market.
This year's five-year high of 57,000 truck sales above 3.5 tonnes is likely to be repeated next year, says DRI. Britain's manufacturers have increased their home sales by 2.5% this year, despite the temporary withdrawal of Bedford from the market.
DRI says the stock market crash will do little to dent the fortunes of either the manufacturers or haulage companies. Falling interest rates, depressed oil prices (affected by the weak dollar) and continuing growth in European trade are set to encourage growth.
Total European truck sales this year will reach 300,000, their highest level since 1982. DRI expects the market to fall over the next two years before picking up in 1990.
France and Italy will bear the brunt for the hiccough in sales over the next two years, because both countries have a majority of small hauliers who will be set back by the stock market shake-up, says DRI. Renault Vehicles Industriels and Iveco will also be hit by a drop in demand for their trucks in the depressed US market.
European sales of heavy trucks (above 15 tonnes) are 12.8% up on last year, with production up 5.3%. DRI forecasts that demand for heavy trucks will remain buoyant, helped by the opening up of the European market. Demand for medium-sized trucks will suffer as a consequence, but commercial sales below six tonnes (up 6.4% this year) will fall slightly before rising again in 1990.
LI DRI sugge§ts the liberalisation of the European market will have a polarising effect on continental hauliers, encouraging the growth of large distribution specialists and ownaccount operators. Uncertainty about deregulation will unsettle truck sales in some European countries, but Britain will be largely unaffected.