Ryder's bus order criticism refuted by Confederation
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by CM reporter IMPLIED criticism of the bus operating industry contained in Sir Don Ryder's report on British Leyland (see p.3) was firmly refuted this week by the Confederation of British Road Passenger Transport. The Ryder report said that the DoE should bring together operators and BLMC, as a matter of urgency, to produce a more systematic bus order programme.
A memorandum submitted by the Confederation to the DoE before the Ryder report was published, but only made public this week, shows that the operators have been trying to solve this problem for some time. The memorandum shows that the annual new bus requirement — which ranges from 2,666 to 4,000 a year depending upon the vehicle replacement time chosen—is well within current manufacturing capacity.
The Confederation estimates that the total UK bus fleet at the end of last month was 48,000 vehicles, of which 28,000 were double-deckers. They predict that this figure is unlikely to change much by 1980 unless the conditions of bus grant are widened to take in all vehicles on scheduled mileage.
The memorandum says that there is an existing doubledeck manufacturing capability of 2,000-2,300 double-deckers a year which should be adequate to maintain a fleet of 28,000 buses. However, there is such a high proportion of old vehicles in the existing fleet that demand may outstrip this.
"The real world"
The memorandum goes on to discuss optimum replacement time and shows that the average minimum life for a bus is 12 years, and the outside maximum rife is 18 years. It observes "academic neutrality" in refusing to make any hard and fast recommendation of which length is more economic. "The voices of the practical, experienced bus operators must be heeded and the real world in which bus operators are currently working be taken into account," it says.
Arguments vbout the most sensible replacement time are examined in the report and the memorandum says : "Some form of variety control, so that 'the 48,000 total fleet does not contain too many variations at any one time, is essential." This would allow technical changes to be swiftly extended to the total fleet.
From 'the figures presented with this article, it can be seen that the average life of the existing double-deck tlect is approximately nine years. It is calculated that if a planned life of 15 years was adopted, the average age would be 7.5 years with an annual intake of 2,000.
Nearer 4,000
With a planned life of 12 years the average age would be six years and the annual intake would be 2,500. During the transitional period still m ore vehicles would be required each year. Because of all, this, the appropriate level of intake of all new vehicles, says the memorandum, should be nearer 4,000 than the Government's own figure of 3,500 grant-aided buses in the current year.
The memorandum—the first of a number the Confederation is preparing on the subject— says that the need to ensure a smoother intake of whatever size is recognised by both operators and manufacturers. It is one area, it says, where an informal "planning agreement" betwen operators, manufacturers and Government is called for.