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Glass predictions
Page 51
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• The rush to register trucks stimulated by the Reduced Pollution Certificate late last year could hit sales in 2001, predicts George Alexander, commercial vehicles editor at Glass's Guide "It may have pulled forward demand," he suggests.
If the US economy goes into recession, and the UK starts to feel the backwash, that will affect truck orders too, he suggests.
"The big logistics companies won't buy vehicles if they see a recession coming," he remarks.
"Having said that, we're in an election year, and the Chancellor may decide to throw his money about," Alexander adds. "That could be good news for registrations, and although I expect demand to be down overall, I don't think it will be down disastrously—and light commercial sales will probably be up by around 1%."
So far as the 13x2 vs 4x2 debate is concerned, Alexander warns that If 6x2 residuals start to slip, then 4x2 residuals will fall too— despite the fact that they've now become more attractive to some users—to maintain the traditional price differential between the two types of unit.
Alexander warns operators not to rush out of 6x2s and into 4x2s unless there is a really compelling reason for doing so. "The government could change its mind yet again In 2002, and 4x2s could suddenly be out of favour," he points out.
As far as eight-wheelers are concerned, "now is the time to buy," Alexander advises. "They look cheap at present, and are likely to go up In value."
Visiting the auctions, he's been impressed by the increased interest among bidders in ex-Royal Mail vehicles. "The quality of the trucks the Royal Mail is entering is much better than it was, and they're achieving close to price guide value," he says. "Late-registered Weal Dailys coming off the fleet should do OK—if you ignore the colour."