Production falls
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EUROPEAN commercial vehicle production is now running at its lowest for 15 years, and British production is only half the level of 1979.
The British figures, released by the Department of Trade and Industry, show that average monthly production fell to 17,300 vehicles in the first 10 months of this year, down from 17,800 last year.
In 1979, the best year ever for sales of new vehicles in Britain, the monthly production figure was 34,000 over the whole year.
According to forecaster DRI Europe, the recession in commercial vehicle production across Europe is bottoming out, but it will not recover to past levels as export markets demand much more local content and assembly than before.
The seven-week West German metalworkers' strike has inhibited its manufacturers' chances of recovery. Sales of light commercials are down from 108,000 in 1980 to 92,000 last year and 88,000 this year. DRI anticipates a rise to 107,000 in 1990.
Medium/heavy commercial sales fell from 61,000 in 1980 to 47,000 last year, 46,000 this year, and should rise to 57,000 in 1990.
West German production of commercials fell from 340,000 in 1980 to 264,000 last year, 252,000 this year, but is expected to climb to 270,000 next year and 306,000 in 1990.
French production fell from 437,000 in 1980 to 373,000 in 1983, to 337,000 this year, and is expected to rise to 345,000 next year and 382,000 in 1990.
Sales of new light commercials in France rose from 275,000 in 1980 to 298,000 last year, and fell to 257,000 this year. By 1990, they are expected to recover to 309,000. Medium/heavy vehicles sales fell from 40,000 in 1980 to 39,000 last year, and to 41,000 this year. By 1990, DRI expects the market to have grown to 44,000 vehicles.
In Italy, the production rose from 158,000 commercials in 1980 to 172,000 last year and fell to 156,000 this year. DRI expects it to climb to 189,000 next year and 215,000 in 1990.
Medium/heavy vehicle sales in Italy have fallen from 22,000 in 1980 to 19,000 last year and climbed to 20,000 this year. By 1990, the figure is expected to be 23,000.
For all of Western Europe, DRI shows a steep fall in commercial vehicle production from 1.3m in 1980 to 1m last year and to 963,000 this year. It anticipates this climbing to 1m next year and to 1.2m in 1990.
*The DRI European Trucks Forecast Report is available for E900 from DRI Europe, 30 Old Queen Street, St James's Park, London, SW1H 9HP.