IOTA ANNUAL CONFERENCE
Page 39
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Towards AD 2,000
by David Lowe • "One of the most precious achievements of modem civilization is mobility. It enriches social life and widens experience. To build mobility into the urban and rural life of this crowded island without destroying the other elements of good living must be one of the major purposes of transport planning."
This first paragraph from the White Paper Public Transport and Traffic was used by Mr. B. V. Martin, chief engineer (transportation), Greater London Council, in his paper "Urban transport problems of today" at the Institute of Traffic Administration conference in London last weekend.
Although the title of his paper suggested he would be talking about present-day problems, much emphasis was laid on planning for the future and this linked very closely with the paper, "Transport in AD 2000" given by Professor J. Kolbuszewski, head of the Department of Transportation and Environmental Planning, Birmingham University. The Professor used a similar theme when he talked of the quality of individual life and its importance when thinking about and planning transport systems of the future.
In opening the conference Lord Merrivale of Walkhampton, president of the Institute, set the scene by referring to a conference from which he had just returned in which the Channel Tunnel was discussed and he said he envisaged a super trans-tunnel region forming on both sides of the Channel. This was a project for the future but development experts needed to know now a definite date for the construction of the tunnel so that long-term planning for the future could commence. This was the point, Lord Merrivale said, which was closely connected with the two papers of the conference, planning being the important function for future transport systems.
Mr. Martin began by suggesting that the general public outcry about the urban traffic crisis and thrombosis of transport was without foundation. Traffic as a whole had never actually ground to a halt despite the forecasts of the cynics; in fact it was flowing more easily today in many urban centres than it was 10 years ago.
Surveys showed that traffic in London in 1968 was travelling at an average speed of 11.1 mph, an increase of 34 per cent since 1958. We were in a period of profound social change As the economy grew so did the amount of travel and the underlying growth of our urban economies would therefore generate large travel demands which were likely to grow in the next 15-20 years at a rate far exceeding the physical renewal of our conurbations.
The land-use transport studies that were being, and had been, conducted in major cities and towns provided a basis for evaluating the nature of future travel demands but these studies were not intended to provide optimum answers to transport prolt lems in urban areas; they merely enabled planners to measure the problem and evaluate the consequences.
The implication for public transport as a whole was that "ridership" would decline, particularly bus patronage, and even quite massive public transport improvements could not eliminate a large proportion of car journeys. These were, of course, overall results; conditions within particular areas could be influenced by investment in appropriate public transport services. Nevertheless, the lesson for politicians and decision makers was that the "problem" of a car-owning society could not be approached only by improving public transport.
The nature and characteristic of the future transport demand in conurbations made it abundantly clear that urban motorways would be required. These types of roads would be essential to the life of the area to serve the medium to long-distance car and lorry journeys which would otherwise become bogged down with the morass of short-distance movements generated by a car-owning society.
The pattern of the demand suggested that the improvement of existing radial routes was not adequate since many future movements would be non-radial. As there were few, if any, circtunferential routes in existing urban areas new alignments had to be found. The magnitude of the potential growth in demand was so great that it was not feasible to restrain it out of existence by regulations or prohibitions.
In the large conurbations public transport had a major role to play in the future, and in the largest, rail services played a predominant part in carrying work journeys to the centre, particularly in the case of London. The need was to improve the quality of the services to be consistent with the improved standards the population demanded. The rail problem was not easy except when compared with the difficulties facing buses, which were the predominant public transport mode in many urban areas, due to traffic congestion, labour requirements, costs and, possibly, further reductions in off-peak demand as car ownership increased. But operators' efforts alone could not improve the services. Traffic authorities must view the problems of bus operations, parking policies and general traffic management in the context of an urban area's total transport requirement.
Prof. Kolbuszewski said he would find it difficult to talk about his subject in the short time available; 12 months would have given him a better opportunity to expand the subject!
AD 2000 was only 30 years away and not so far that it needed to be considered in a "Jules Verne"-like manner. It was not in the realms of science fiction but near at hand and planning for it must be started now. But the planners must consider people above all, the quality of individual life was very high and as further technological pro gress took place life would become more enriched and the problems would become more difficult. The biggest problem was the growth of population and the term "popula tion explosion" should be considered as meaning just that A world population figure of 6-7,000m was estimated for AD 2000 if increases were controlled. Without control the figure could be up to 12,000m. Com pared with the current world population of about 3,000m this was a staggering increase and gave some idea of the tasks facing planners.
The Professor referred to future problems in this country, especially the point that the population was always moving towards the towns, or rather the towns were expanding towards the people and this trend of urban ization, in which Britain led, was being followed by other countries but we had to look upon these problems on a multi-national scale, not on a local one.
There was no solution to the problems at the moment because there were not suf ficient data available to carry out better transport studies. Three considerations faced the planners, first to establish defi nition of tasks of urban situations for the present-day situation, secondly to devise social and economic means for these imme diate, five to 10-year, purposes, and thirdly the projection of these means into the future which would lead to the solution.
Prof. Kolbuszewski illustrated his paper with slides and a new film of a traffic situation computerized and it was clear that the increased demand for travel in the future will be enormous. In the next millenium strip cities running along main transport routes or vertical cities with housing built around central services would be possibili ties and futuristic mass transport media in the form of pneumatic tube trains running on air cushions giving door-to-door service might well provide the sort of services required.
Among the slides were some showing original sketches by Leonardo da Vinci of his vision of future architecture—as futuristic today as it was some 370 years ago, with raised pedestrian precincts and multistorey garages, only they were called stables then.
The morning session was concluded by discussion with a forum of experts, namely Mr. A. P. Goode, MoT, Mr. J. F. A. Baker, Automobile Association, Mr. A. T. Griffiths, British Railways, Mr. F. K. Flight, a p.s.v. operator, and Mr. F. Lyon, Road Haulage Association.