The Road-transport iustry Must Look Bey he End of Its Nose
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OW long will it be before we tear up the railway lines and th(,. obsolescence of the railways is uni versally accepted? 1950? 1900? Or even 1970? Whatever, the date of this millennium, it might be useful to sketch the outline of a transport organization, on a national scale, that would supersede our present railway system and which would provide increased efficiency at a lower cost.
This outline b, of necessity, imaginative and it is based on the assumption that petrol and oil engines,' as we know them to-day, will remain the most efficient form of motive power, and that they will not be themselves superseded (as they superseded the steam engine) by some scientific discovery, as yet undreamt of. They will, of course, undergo. considerable development, and .much progress in design and performance is likely to be made over the next10-20 years, as a result of experi
ence gained in many fields of use. •
At the moment, the only invention that would-appear likely to relegate the petrol or oil engine to a back seat would be the discovery of a means for transmitting electrical power by. wireless. Even if this became practical politics it would not necessarily mean any change in the type of vehicle used for transport, but merely the substitution of an electric motor for the present type of engine.
All observers, whether impartial or not, agree that the major problem which faces. the road-transport operator to-day is that road development has not kept pace with the demands of users. It lags far behind—so much so, indeed, that successive Governments have been forced to adopt restrictive legislation and taxation, with the sole object of keeping the traffic on the roads down "to manageable proportions, judged from the angle of the safety of the community.
0. Rail Tracks as Ready-rnade toad System •
The country-wide network of tracks owned by and
reserved for the use of the railways provides an almost r.ady-made road system. It is necessary to remove only the rails_and the sleepers, and you have the foundations and ballast ready for the laying of concrete roads. Such a. road system would be vastly superior to that possessed to-day by any country and, indeed, would he superior to any that could now be built in a developed country. The road system so provided is:—
(a) Very lightly graded—cuttings and tunnels are used at great cost to avoid gradients beyond the . capacity of the steam locomotive. The average cornmercial vehicle or car of to-day could cover the entire system fully loaded On top gear.
(b) ExcepL at a comparatively small number Of level crossings it is isolated from the present rod system. There need be no speed limits. There are no " built-up areas," no dangerous corners, pedestrian crossings, blind bends or hump-backed bridges, cross-roads or blind approaches to " major. roads." Such " junctions" as exist have an acute angle of entry which facilitates signalling at such points.
(c) In the main these "roads" take the most direct route between towns, and the nearer they go to towns the wider they become until—usually in the heart of the town—they expand into quite large " marshalling " and goods yards which would pro vide admirable "parks." Only in towns (or "stations") wOuld traffic on these new highways be permitted to transfer to the present roads to enable them to deliver their -loads direct to the destinations, no ' off" and reloading being. necessary. Goods and passengers would be conveyed literally from door to door.
(d) An adequate telephone and telegraph system is already in existence along Vee entire route) and a minimum of signposting would be required. The layout of the system makes it ideal for automatic 'traffic signalling, and scouts or traffic regulators would be reduced to a minimum., (e) The entire network is designed and built for high speeds and, with adequate lighting in tunnels, the "high-speed," considetations for steam locomotives apply equally to road transport. What a vista this opens up for road-transport operators. It may seem, at present, no more than an ideal which can never be achieved, but a greater ." revolution " in the transport world has been going on steadily since the. application of the internal-combustion engine to transport, and think, of the " revolution '! in our midst that resulted from the development of the steam locomotive which has only just celebrated its centenary.
• Doom of the Railways Inevitable •
That steam locomotives and railways in general will become obsolete in time is certain, and this time will be brought nearer if somebody with the imagination, enterprise, and courage which was displayed by Watt and Stevenson, the pioneers of the Steam locomotive; will set about the task of producing an alternative. In the outcome the vested interests, that were threatened by the introduction of railways, were ferced to give way, just as the vested interests of the railways themselves, powerful though they are, will be forced to give way by the spirit of progress.
But the forces of progress must be mobilized and united, Aid they mustbe able to present a clear Picture of their plans. They must know exactly what they are aiming for and not seek to pull down the existing fabric until they can produce an alternative which is more efficient, more economical and more reliable.
If the picture, as drawn, so far appears an attractive one, it is necessary to examine it from other. angles. 'Given the wonderful highways system sketched, can the motor industry produce sufficient and suitable vehicles to cope with the whole of the transport requirements of the country, including all the traffic at present carried by the railways? That they 'could not do it at once-is obvious. It would take many years to work up to the necessary production.
The railway companies to-day haul millions of tons millions of miles in the course of a year, in addition to pa.ssengers, and to do this by road transport would require several millions -of vehicles. It may be argued that even the ideal ,highways provided would be inadequate to handle the vast traffic that would be required, but is this really the case? An average goods train hauling a pay-load of 500 tons would probably have to be replaced with 100 vehicles each carrying five tons. The train does not make its trip until its load is made up and completed, so that .between two points, X and Y, it is possible that one train, per day can handle the traffic, the track being in use for only the length of time occupied by the journey.
With 100 Vehicles—with independent motive power— each vehicle starts so soon as it is loaded and there is a more continuous, flow, with. the. use of the track spread over, a longer period. The absence of any necessity of waiting for loads to be " marshalled " (shunting operations on a railway) would spread the traffic, and as it would undoubtedlybe carried at a higher average speed by road transport, and there would be no delays due to " switching •' to allow passenger traffic to pass or to "
slip" wagons at intermediate stations, it would appreciably, shorten the time of the journey.
• 10 Tons at 6e m.p.h. by Road Vehicle •
The handling of what the railways call " mineral " traffic would Undoubtedly provide the biggest .problem, but it is well within the powers of even present-day designers to build a vehicle with a pay-load capacity of 10 tons which could travel at 60 mph. on the ideal road available. There are, however, no major difficulties in the problem, and the research work now being done in the metallurgical field seems to indicate that the future will be rich in possibilities of development..
The cost of production of the necessary vehicles would bear little relationship to present-day costs. The fac• tories engaged on producing them would be able to plan for a production of tens of thousands annually, where now they think in hundreds. Whether this would bring production costs down to a sufficiently low level to make the scheme as a whole practical may be debatable, and, of course, operating and maintenance costs would need to be most carefully compared and considered.
Railway companies, at present, are decidedly reticerr. on the details of maintenance and operating cost, pos
sibly to prevent criticisms of their effete and inefficient organization and management. There are, however, several factors which, over the next decade or so, willhave a decided effect in substantially reducing both prol duction and operating costs of road vehicles, if their use and development be not subject to artificial restrictions. This factor must be taken into consideration when attempting to compare operational costs of the two systems.
In addition to the vastly increased production of vehicles, which would materially reduce manufacturing costs, the following factors will tend to reduce both operational and production figures by comparison with costs in 1939: (a) Progress towards standardization of types, .units and components of vehicles. On this point commercial-vehicle manufacturers of this country have still a lot to learn from America. Any possibility of a vastly increased market for commercial vehicles could be met only by a reduction in the number of different types produced, and 'possibly by some big "mergers " or 'amalgamation of resources which are now competitive.
(b) Far too high a proportion of operating costs to-day are made up of taxatiF and duties on petrol
and oil. In calculating true operating costs for comparison with railway costs, "these must be ignored, as-must insurance costs.
(c) Over the next 10 years progress can be looked for in the process of distilling fuel from coal, and this will most probably reduce actual fuel costs and ensure adequate home-produced supplies.
• Long-term Planning Essential to Success •
It is beyond the scope of this 'article .thoroughly to explore all the implications involved in such a revolutionary change in the transport organization of the country. .The entire plan may be considered altogether impracticable and far-fetched, but the' protagonists of road transport must put forward some long-term policy if they .hope for success in the battle of "road versus rail." They must have an .ultimate dim—a complete Plan of what they desire to achievea picture of the " ideal "transport organization that ought to exist 50 or possibly 100.years hence. No niggling policy of criticizing railway administration will Se.,cure public 'support, and without a measure of such suppcirt little progress can be made..
. if this imaginative scheme be impracticable, put forward an alternative. Find da answer to the question: !` Will the present railway system of the country still be in existence in 100 years' time? " If the answer be "No," then "What sdrt of transport organization shall we have and what plans can we now put forward to accelerate the change? "
The present railway system was not built up in a year or in 20 years, and its originators faced much opposition and ridicule from the public. But they had a plan. They built up a picture of the whole country covered by a vast network of railways, and they were not deterred by the magnitude Of the task. Is the task in front of us any greater? If railways are to remain, what functions will they be fulfilling in 100 year's time? And what will be the position of road transport then?
The end of the war will -no doubt be seized upon bymany interests as a suitable moment to put for-ward
schemes and plans for a remodelling of our interior domestic economy. Indeed, certain Cabinet Ministers, after one year of war, have openly stated that " we shall never go back to 1939 politically." It is possible that we shall be blessed with more far-seeing statesmen than we have had this past decade or so, and that the moment will be ripe for some progressive planning in many directions. If this be the case, no time should be lost in working out the details of a plan—and it will need to be a long-term plan—for modernizing the country's transport arrangements.
This planning will call for much careful scientific investigation a the difficulties to be faced. The planners must sink their own petty individual interests and study not merely one local aspect of the problem, but the whole of it. They must start at the end and work backwards. They must first draw the picture of their ideal system and, having convinced themselves that it is sound and workable, they must decide how long it will take to reach the goal, and then plot a progressive system of steps to the goal. They must think on national lines.
• Hope of Unity a Formidable Problem • Their problem is not how the X.Y.Z. Transport Co.
can obtain haulage work for its fleet by undercutting the railway rates, but what is the most economical and efficient system from the community's point of view of transporting goods from A to B.. The task is formidable, and the multiplicity of small interests involved make the problem of achieving unity a difficult one, but unity must be accomplished if progress is to be made.
This committee of planners for the future must keep the following factors prominently in front of them :— (1) The railways already present a strong and . united front. They do not compete among themselves. They have sensed the danger of their obsolescence and have marshalled their forces to oppose the spirit of progress. They have most efficient Parliamentary representation, and when they are " nationalized," as they probably will be after the war, they will put up a most spirited fight for their pound of flesh" froth the taxpayer, who will have to pay heavily for the privilege of taking over an obsolete system.
(2) Nationalization of the railways may ease the position for road transport. It cannot make matters more difficult and the passing of the necessary legislation through Parliament may provide a great opportunity for persuading the country that there is an alternative to rail transport and that it should not pay too high a price for a system that may shortly be superseded by a more efficient organization.
• Railways' Huge Capital Investment • (3) Whether nationalized or not, the railways represent an enormous capital investment, and, as we are unlikely to reach the political " heights " of those countries which indulge in expropriation, any plans made must not have the effect of causing hardship and loss to any section of the community.
(4) When planning the progressive steps, full consideration must be shown for the safety and convenience of the public. The "safety first" campaigns of various Transport Ministers have contained some bad propaganda for road transport (it may have been inspired by the railways) and the fact remains that the general public is quite apprehensive about traffic conditions to-day. It is too ill-informed to apportion the blame correctly—i.e., on the poor roads. In consequence, those operating on the roads receive more than their share. The railway companies' propaganda is entirely designed (and cleverly designed, too) to enlist the sympathy of the public. No plan can succeed unless it has public support, and a big bid must be made to secure this. The road-transport industry must use the same subtlety of approach to the problem of propaganda that the railways have used, and it must arouse public interest in its plans.
(5) The war will give tens of thousands of the rising generation "mechanized minds." They will have learnt a good deal about petrol and oil engines, they will understand them and respect their efficiency, economy and adaptability. They are already converted to the benefits of road transport, and they all have a vote.
• Encourage the Spirit of Progress They will all\ be planning for the future. They are the embodiment of the spirit of progress and . are virtually interested in schemes which will help to make a land fit for heroes. Appeal to their imagination and enlist their support with some sound national scheme. Politics fade into the background during a war, but 20-30 years hence we may have a Prime Minister appealing to the country to decide whether the railway lines between X and Y should be removed in order to make a road for experimental handling of all traffic by specially designed oil-engined vehicles!
(6) The present road system, even before the suspension of activity caused by the war, lagged far behind the requirements of road users. The amount of leeway to be made good is now so enormous that no Government, let alone one impoverished by a costly war, can be expected to finance one-tvitentieth of what is necessary at once, and it must be accepted that any progress of road transport is entirely dependent on the extent of road development and improvement.
Road-transport operators are reluctant to accept this statement, but judging by the restrictive legislation already introduced, successive Governments have felt, for some time, that the rads are carrying too much traffic and that artificial means for curbing the amount must be resorted to. That this policy was .a wrong one is beside the point. •A good deal of public opinion could be found to hack it, and whilst the money (or the imagination) was lacking to plan and construct adequate roads no other safe course was open to the authorities.
• Sudden Road Development Unlikely • Any plans devised, therefore, must not depend too much on the sudden dawn of a golden age of road development. Road 'schemes are costly, and economy of public expenditure will, of necessity, she the watchword of at least the next half a dozen Chancellors. Any scheme that results in the present roads being called upon to carry much additional heavy traffic will not enjoy public support and attacks made on restrictive legislation, designed to keep traffic down, are unlikely to achieve much success.
To summarize, this is a plea to the road-transport industry to look a little farther than the end of its nose, to get down to some long-term planning, and to co-ordinate its efforts, not for the sake of immediate profits, but in the national interests, of which there is so much glib talk. That the railways are looking ahead there can be no doubt. In spite of the average ages of their boards of directors, they command the services of some astute, progressive and imaginative executives, as is proved by their past 'successes. They have held the initiative too long.