The world is running out of oil, with only enough
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left for 40 years, says one expert. And long before the oil wells are squeezed dry, fuel prices will rocket as demand exceeds supply. Faced with these facts are the fuel companies doing enough to develop a cheap, renewable alternative? Pat Hagan reports.
DIESEL IS THE LIFEBLOOD of the haulage industry, just as haulage is the lifeblood of the economy—no road transport company can survive without diesel. So imagine the consequences if supplies of this essential fuel dried up. The implications for an industry dominated by dieselpowered vehicles would be unthinkable.
Potentially, the entire infrastructure of the transport sector would have to be rebuilt in what would be the biggest change since its transi tion from horse and steam power. This nightmare might sound unlikely at the moment, with a glut of global oil supplies. But if the predictions of some energy experts are correct, diesel's doomsday may be closer than most people think.
Any non-renewable resource will run out some day and a lot of effort is being devoted to the search for renewable sources of energy that are cheap and efficient enough to compete with oil-based fuels.
And according to leading petrochemical geologist Colin Campbell, those new fuels can't come too soon because we only have a few decades' worth of oil left.
He has been warning MPs that although production is still climbing (it is due to peak in two years' time) the oil companies are only producing one barrel of oil for every four the world consumes.
It is estimated that the world has extracted about 820 billion barrels of oil, with the same amount left in reserve. But with demand constantly increasing, Campbell warns that supplies will be exhausted within 40 years.
Hauliers currently battling to survive the next 40 days are not likely to take much notice of such long-term threats. But if Campbell is right, fuel prices will begin to rise within a few years as demand exceeds supply. And that would be on top of the artificial increases caused by the fuel duty escalator.
Oil prices in the UK have already begun to rise because some countries have cut back production in a bid to bump up the value of their exports. This can only make life even harder for hauliers already coping with the most expensive diesel in the EU.
No wonder the world's leading energy companies are looking for alternative sources of power: the financial rewards for the winner of that race will be vast.
Last month Shell signed a deal with a corn
pany called Energy Conversion Devices to develop a commercially viable system for storing hydrogen as a solid; it could then be used to power conventional internal-combustion engines.
Much of the work involves finding ways to store and transport hydrogen efficiently, in compressed form or as a liquid.
Shell hopes to have a hydrogen prototype up and running as early as 2001. A spokeswoman says: "We estimate that by zoo up to half the world's energy needs will need to be from renewable sources so we are looking at how hydrogen can become an alternative means of powering vehicles. It's a big exercise but we feel pretty confident."
BP Amoco is also working with hydrogen, even though its own oil supplies look secure following the recent discovery of new oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico and near Angola.
DaimlerChrysler has taken another approach, building prototype electric vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
But hydrogen is not the only potential replacement for diesel. Among the other contenders is "bio-diesel", which can power a diesel engine but is made from renewable sources such as vegetable oils.
Bio-diesel is receiving a lot of attention in the US, where it is made from soya beans. Compared with diesel it reduces emissions of unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and particulates.
Some truck manufacturers are taking their own steps to find alternatives. Volvo's Environmental Concept Truck, at a gross weight of 15 tonnes, combines a gas turbine with a high-speed generator, batteries and an electric drive motor. It uses ethanol, a renewable alcohol fuel that can be made from several sources, to power the gas turbine. Between them the turbine, generator and batteries power the electric drive motor.
DaimlerChrysler has also built an electric car with a fuel cell operating on ethanol. Volvo Trucks spokesman Richard Smith stresses that most alternatives to diesel are a long way from being economically viable.
"We think diesel technology will be around for many years," he says, "but we are keen to look at the options that alternative fuels present. We will look at fuels that existing technology can run on."
Hauliers are generally too busy to worry too much about the demise of the oil industry, but some major players are looking at fuels which reduce pollution in a bid to improve the industry's image.
A spokesman for Exel Logistics, which operates about 5,000 vehicles in the UK, says it has considered fuels such as compressed natural gas (CNG) but has yet to convert any of its fleet to it.
Iveco Ford offers a range of CNG-powered vehicles, and in the March Budget the Government supported fuels such as CNG by doubling the VED rebate for these environmentally friendly vehicles to Li,000, although natural gas is not strictly a renewable resource.
While progress in the search for diesel alternatives is dearly being made, the big question is whether they can be developed into commercially viable options in time for the haulage industry to plan a major conversion. If they can't, there could be some troubled times ahead.