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Finger on the button
WHAT with taking courses, filling in forms and poring over Ministry of Transport literature, operators have scarcely had leisure to consider what has been happening at the party conferences. Perhaps the Government with enough troubles of its own had the ingenious idea of keeping the road transport industry too busy to create a disturbance.
Labour relations, the balance of payments and the Common Market may be more important political subjects than transport. It is still a strange commentary on public affairs that after having created the maximum upheaval in an industry the politicians should calmly pass on to Other matters and leave the industry to work out its own salvation.
Picking up the pieces will take a long time. The process now seems certain to extend beyond the next general election, a factor seriously to be taken into account even though the date is unknown. The autumn of 1970 is most favoured at the. moment but there could be an election next spring.
Quantity licensing Even if the Government stays in office until the last possible moment in 1971 it is doubtful whether quantity licensing would be introduced before that time. The Ministry has given up making forecasts. The switch to operators' licensing will take the whole of 1970. Unfit that is over it is inconceivable that any attempt will be made to launch the next stage.
The finger on the button will be that of the Minister. Will Mr. Fred Mulley be allowed to press it so soon after his appointment and so soon before an election? Quantity licensing is hardly calculated to attract votes. During the debates on the Transport Bill it drew most of the fire from an Opposition confident of public support as well as that of trade and industry and hauliers.
The campaign against the Transport Act had had little on which to feed during the last few months and has died down. It will revive as soon as an attempt is made to introduce quantity licensing. The Government cannot wish to entangle itself in this kind of controversy while it is wooing the electorate_ Indications are that the Labour Party will need all the votes it can get.
If it is returned to power one must assume that quantity licensing becomes inevitable. Whoever is Minister must follow the path laid down for him in spite of his feelings. The only possibility of a new policy lies in a change in the fortunes of the railways or in the relationship between road and rail.
The Conservatives have promised to repeal quantity licensing. Success in the election will give them the opportunity. Political pledges are not made as cynically as is sometimes alleged but they are not always kept or else they are redeemed in a way that the supposed beneficiaries do not relish.
Quantity licensing is activated when the Minister names the appointed day. Merely by doing nothing the Conservatives can claim that at least they are not abandoning their promise. The problem for operators is that while the power remains on the Statute Book there is always the danger that another Labour Government will operate it.
Complete fulfilment of their undertaking means that the Conservatives must introduce amending legislation. Before they do this they are likely to need some persuasion. It is not a foregone conclusion that the necessary pressure will be forthcoming. '
Much will depend on the railways. If they have made a satisfactory recovery they may no longer think it important to have the protection of the law. If their situation has deteriorated they may claim that they cannot afford to do without quantity licensing. The Conservatives must give this argument due weight. Postponement of a decision becomes that more attractive.
Traders on own-account were against, quantity licensing because it was designed to curb their freedom to carry their own goods. They will have this freedom until the appointed day is named and arrives. In the meantime they are able to Use vehicles up to a plated weight of 16 tons for any purpose they wish and are that much better off than previously. They may come to think that too much insistence on a formal cancellation of the appointed day will gain them very little and further antagonize a Labour Party which it is always possible will resume office at some future date.
The attitude of hauliers may be equally equivocal when it comes to the point. They have never been known to complain about the present licensing system. They may have accepted its abolition in stages but are under no obligation to be pleased about it. For at least a year beginning next March they will have the experience of mixed freedom and restriction.
Own-account With their vehicles up to 16 tons they will be in no different a position than the trader on own-account. Their heavier vehicles will remain subject to a system that has worked reasonably well for them in the past.
Once quantity licensing is introduced this system will vanish for ever. The same consequences would follow legislation which repealed quantity licensing. By the time this becomes possible hauliers may have lost the enthusiasm kindled a year or two ago. Total freedom for lighter vehicles may have had a bad effect on their businesses. They would not want to spread this effect by a further enlargement of freedom.
Grudgingly they may come to express a preference for leaving the situation as it will have developed by the end of 1970 when all vehicles plated at over 3+ tons will be covered by operators' licensing and those over 16 tons will in addition require an A, B or C licence. This would keep the present objection rights for the railways who would lose them completely if the quantity licensing provisions were repealed.
Politicians' attitude Unfortunately this might seem to the politicians like getting the worst of both worlds. Although, as I have said, the Conservatives' enthusiasm for repeal may dwindle, they have a dislike for seeing a piece of legislation rotting on the bough. A Minister also has to further his own reputation. Mrs. Barbara Castle swept into the Ministry of Transport determined to produce a formidable and comprehensive Bill although at the outset she knew very little about the subject she was tackling.
Following a change of Government a Conservative Minister will probably not go as far as Mrs. Castle. Much of what she introduced will have to Stand for at least a few years. There cannot be unending demolition and reconstruction over the whole field of transport.
In the, interests of his own career the new Minister cannot afford to sit still and do nothing apart from opening an occasional stretch of motorway. He must seek to obtain at least some share of Parliamentary time. A Bill to get rid of the more objectionable features of the Transport Act might seem the ideal medium.
Quantity licensing will probably be top of the list. But there will be many other things in the Bill. Already in the Ministry there is a long list of changes that the civil servants would like made in the law. Conservative MPs have ideas of their own and there is never a dearth of suggestions from outside Parliament.
If. and when a Conservative Minister introduces a Transport Bill it may contain many items not to the liking of road operators. This provides yet another reason for hesitating before the new Government is urged to meet its promise.
Much to their secret chagrin operators were made to realize soon after Mrs. Castle introduced her Bill that the Opposition had no intention of putting up more than a token resistance to the greater part of it. They approved most of the new restrictions and the new liberties. Most of the items they approved have been put into force or are about to be implemented.
What operators do not want is yet more legislation which could well make their lot no easier. Under a Conservative administration they might well throw their influence against any new legislation at all and argue that the position fortuitously reached at the time of the general election would be best left alone.