I Turning the corner
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THIS WEEK Trucking Britain Out Of Recession's April survey reveals that operators feel uncertain, but at least business is better than it was a year ago.
justin.stantonrarbi.co.uk JUDGING BY responses to the Trucking Britain Out Of Recession survey conducted in April. many road transport operators have seen the worst of the recession and are already seeing some upside — but the outlook remains uncertain.
We asked respondents how the first quarter of 2010 compared with the first quarter of 2009: 50% said revenue had increased either a little or a lot; for 19%, revenue was static; while 29% said revenue had decreased either a little or a lot.
Hire and reward hauliers' responses were more heavily skewed to either side of the spectrum: 55 `Yo reported an increase, while 33% reported a decrease, with just 12% static.
Operators serving agriculture and the construction industry enjoyed the most growth with 63% reporting increases. However, it should be noted that 34% of agricultural hauliers and 32% of construction hauliers reported decreases.
Operators in the service industry are having it tough: 'just' 47% reported increases, while 36% reported decreases.
'[he positivity generated in 01 means operators are upbeat about 02 and how it will compare with Q2 2009. Overall, 53% expect revenue to increase either a little or a lot, while just 18% expect revenue to decrease either a little or a lot; 26% expect revenue to be static.
02 is rosiest for logistics/contract distribution firms: 57% expect to see increases and only 9% expect decreases.
Sector analysis reveals that once again agricultural hauliers and construction hauliers have the highest expectations: 63% and 56% expect increases. Hauliers in the service industry have the lowest expectations: 49% expect increases, while 26% expect decreases.
April's survey took place in the aftermath of the pre-election Budget. which no Trucking Britain respondent described as businessfriendly. Indeed, 60% labelled the Budget pointless. while 50% said it was damaging to the bottom line. Tellingly, just 2% rated the Budget as useful.
Feelings
In October last year, we asked how it felt to he working in road transport at the lime. We offered 10 emotional descriptions ranging from the positive to the negative, allowing respondents to pick as many as were relevant. Six months on, we decided to ask the same question again.
Here is the outcome with the October rating in brackets:
• Uncertain 51% (50%) • Stressed 40% (39%) • Busy 32% (28%) • Demoralised 29% (33%) • Worried 25% (28%) • Abused 21% (n/a) • Appreciated 5% (6%) • Excited 5% (9%)
• Rewarded 3% (2%)
• Secure 3% (6%)
The slight increase in the levels of uncertainty and stress are not unexpected. It is pleasing to note both the increased percentage of respondents being busy and the decreased percentage of those who are demoralised or worried.
By the same token, it is not pleasing to note the drop in those saying that they feel appreciated, excited or secure.
We introduced 'abused' as an option in this survey (taking the place of .hopeful in the October one) — and given the outcome of the Budget, it is no surprise to see 21% of respondents are feeling abused.
Optimism
Nevertheless, medium-term optimism among operators remains high: 70% are either very or fairly optimistic. However, that is not as high as the previous month: the figure for March was.75'.% That difference combined with a two percentage point increase in those who are either fairly or very pessimistic means the Optimism Index has hit its lowest point since the Trucking Britain survey began. registering a score of +45.
Own-account operators arc more optimistic than hire and reward hauliers: 86% against 62%. Three-quarters of logistics/contract distribution firms are optimistic.
Operators serving the retail and wholesale sectors and those in agriculture are the most optimistic (80% and 71% respectively).
More than a third of respondents (34%) reported that business has already started to recover, while another third expect recovery to begin within the next 12 months. •