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144 
but asset-light operators are better suited for survival
Page 9
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A LEADING transport analyst forecasts a "high risk of failure" for medium-sized haulage firms who burn through working capital in an effort to survive the economic downturn.
John Manners-Bell, chief executive of Transport Intelligence, predicts in his firm's latest report — The Impact of the Downturn on the 311, sector — that hauliers with large overheads who have found it impossible to downsize at the same rate as the market will experience "long-lasting consequences': According to Manners-Bell. larger transport companies such as Norbert Dentressangle, Kueline+Nagel, DSV and DHL — which have all reported a drop in reve
nues of between 18% to 25%, in line with the decline in trade volumes — will cope better.
He adds: "As asset-light operators, they will even be able to benefit to some degree from the surplus capacity in the market.
"At the other end of the spectrum, the micro and smaller enterprises will experience an increased level of churn as existing players drop out, and new companies enter the market.
Manners-Bell believes that there are no indications that consolidation of any scale is occurring in the market.
"Net increase or decrease of company numbers will be negligible," he adds.