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TEST CASES

5th January 1968, Page 58
5th January 1968
Page 58
Page 58, 5th January 1968 — TEST CASES
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

BREATH TESTS for drivers appear to have been vindicated beyond question by the road accident figures for the Christmas holidays. A drop of over one-third in the number of deaths as compared with the previous Christmas, and a substantial reduction also in injuries which were not fatal, cannot be attributed entirely to chance, although the 1966 figures were unusually high.

The subject is one that lends itself to prejudice and cant. It is important that these should not be allowed to distort the accurate analysis of what is on any reckoning a noteworthy achievement by the Minister of Transport and her advisers. The weather was unusually good over the holiday period but traffic on the roads was unusually light. As the Ministry has pointed out both factors helped to keep down the number of accidents.

Other statistics corroborate the considerable part played by the breath tests. They were introduced early in October and during the remainder of that month there was a reduction of 12 per cent in deaths and injuries as compared with the corresponding period in 1966.

For the first few days of October the reduction was only 2 per cent. Most significant was the reduction of 36 per cent between 8 p.m. and 4 a.m. over the month as a whole.

Fear

Fear of the breath-testing equipment must have cut down considerably the number of drivers who had drunk more than was good for them. An equally valid assumption is a sharp drop in the number of cars leaving licensed premises at closing time: The simultaneous appearance of these vehicles on the roads in the earlier unregenerate days may have been largely responsible for making the period between 11 p.m. and midnight on Saturday the most dangerous hour of all to be abroad.

Not that the condition of the drivers can be ignored. The most that can be said is that some of the accidents would probably not have occurred if closing time had not been the same or nearly the same in all places. The comparatively few people who were really unfit to drive might have been less of a hazard if they had not all been driving at the same time.

Research carried out some months ago in the University of Birmingham has a bearing on this. Factors regarded as the cause of accidents were classified under three main headings: environmental, vehicle and roaduser factors. It was found that accidents

took place comparatively rarely where there was a deficiency in only one of the items but that, for example, environmental and road-user factors were both present in nearly 50 per cent of the cases studied. In 6 per cent of the cases environmental factors were present alone and road-user factors in 124 per cent of the eases.

Happy coincidence

Environmental difficulties arise when too many vehicles are using the same stretch of road, and the competence of the driver is obviously a road-user factor. By what may be called a happy coincidence the breath tests have dealt with both items at once. The reason for the spectacular results may lie here.

Other road safety measures which the Minister is pursuing may not achieve anything like the same unequivocal results. A successful test case need not create precedents outside its own context.

In the field of commercial road transport where tests of a different kind have been instituted the emphasis for some time has been On vehicle standards. During the coming year there will be substantial expenditure—whether from public or private sources is beside the point, since the public will ultimately have to pay—on the improvement of vehicles and on elaborate tests of their fitness.

The proposed new licensing system is complementary. Operators must prove that they can look after their vehicles properly and they will be put out of business if they fail.

Perhaps too much will be expected because of the time, money and effort involved. The point is that the Birmingham inquiry revealed that vehicle factors were the least significant in causing accidents. In fact vehicle factors by themselves were responsible in less than 5 per cent of the cases.

Even the present system of testing leaves no doubt that many commercial vehicles are unfit and should be kept off the roads until the faults have been remedied. The need for stricter control is agreed by operators as well as by the Minister. The question remains to be answered whether the control cannot be taken to too great a length, par

ticularly if it means diverting attention and money from other aspects of the road safety problem.

In her White Paper on road safety the Minister has pointed out that numerous proposals have been put forward, all of them with the object of reducing road accidents. The money and resources needed to adopt them all are simply not available. There must be a choice. Mrs. Castle indicates that within her Ministry there is the necessary economic and scientific expertise to ensure that the choice falls on those projects and methods likely to give the best results in relation to the required expenditure.

If the decision to institute breath tests was taken on this basis it strengthens Mrs. Castle's contention that she has found at least one of the essential clues to the road safety problem. Operators would be justified in asking whether the same techniques were adopted before the Minister produced her plans for lorry testing, quality licensing and so on. The extra burden would be accepted more gladly if there were some reassurance that the results would be worthwhile.

Notorious

The suspicion is hard to eradicate that Mrs. Castle is concentrating too much on the shortcomings of the lorry. It is noted that she does not always resist the temptation to use only the statistics that suit her purpose. The most notorious example perhaps is her "proof' that lorries are more dangerous than vans because they are involved in more fatal accidents per vehicle mile.

The Ministry's own statistics give a more accurate picture. The latest road accident figures are for 1966. They show that goods vehicles with an unladen weight of 30cwt or more were involved in 89 fatal and serious accidents (not fatal accidents alone) per 100m vehicle miles. The corresponding figure for the vehicles under 30cwt which the Transport Bill aims to exclude completely from licensing was 118, markedly higher than the figure of 102 for cars and taxis.

On the basis of these statistics the lorry is by far the safest vehicle on the roads. There is room for improvement but it may be found not only in better maintenance but in driver training and in better roads. Expenditure on the latter item in particular must not be curtailed.

Tags

Organisations: University of Birmingham
Locations: Birmingham

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