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VITAL STATISTICS
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The seventh edition o The World's Truci Manufacturers provide!
some serious food fo thought for industr observers says Briar Weatherley
Information is power — and anyone planning to do business with the world's 37 truck manufacturers should know who they're talking to. Now in its seventh edition, TheWorld's. Truck Manufacturers is packed with financial, strategic and production information on all of them, from DaimlerChrysler at number one to Askam at number 37.
Serious truck watchers and analysts will find a mind-blowing array of fmancial and operating data, but there are also shed-loads of fasci nating facts for the casual observer looking to take a stroll through the world of global truck manufacturing.
It also indulges in some crystal ball-gazing. For example, by 2006 the market for trucks in Eastern Europe is expected to have grown by 33.3%; second only to the 33.9% increase predicted in the Middle East. Indeed, the Iraq war is already being talked up as a major driver of future demand in the region.
The news is also good for those 'home' manufacturers expecting good times in Western Europe. Following the market decline of 2002 it's expected to bounce back by more than 12% in 2006.And the predictio that will really put a smile on the faces of thoE truck makers slugging it out in North Americ (including Volvo and DaimlerChrysler) is tit in two years' time that market is expected to grow by almost 32%.
When the US powerhouse is running at full steam European truck makers tend to reap the benefits. In fact, by 2006 demand in the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) region is expected to be back above 500.000 units, although that's still below the glory days of the last peak which hit an astonishing 587,000 vehicles.
By 2006, growing demand in emerging markets coupled with a cyclical upturn in the established markets is expected to drive worldwide CV sales to a staggering 1.8 million units.And if the Western European market recovers in 2004 the review's author, Jonathan Storey,predicts:"The cyclical downturn will have been mild by historical standards and far less severe than in the US."
Used truck dealers should also note that East European truck demand is expected to rise by 2006, fuelled by economic growth.
There are even glad tidings for Europe's truck operators. The review mentions the recent report from the EU which projects that over the next 30 years the market share of road transport will grow further, hitting 78% by 2030. So much for rail's -new dawn".
As for the rest of the world market. Storey says it will be dominated by Asia. Indeed, after a quiet spell CM is hearing more and more about the Chinese market. The rapid development of Chinese roads and motorways will fuel the growth in heavy trucks as, says the review, will the "imposition of a fuel tax and tighter control of overloading". Now where have we heard that before?
However, the Japanese market is rapidly cooling off—by 2007/8 it is expected to be half the level it was 10 years ago.
Industry structure
Market-watchers who like to gamble on mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances will take heart from the review's assertion that in 2002 there were 35 different independent entities,10 of which produced fewer than 2,000 units apiece during the year, while a further four produced fewer than 10,000 units.
The underlying message appears to be: how long can these minnows continue to survive before they are swallowed up by larger predators, or simply disappear altogether? The review also notes:"Daimler Chrysler's dominance of the global industry has been further boosted by its recent purchase of a 43% stake in Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus and will be increased again if it takes a 50% stake in Hyundai's truck operations as planned —though there is some doubt whether this will happen."
American potential
Across the pond Paccar (which owns the Kenworth and Peterbilt brands in the US and is already doing well with Daf in Europe) can be expected to rise above the 100,000 unitsper-annum level as US demand recovers — as could Navistar."
However, the review adds, somewhat intriguingly: "Merger and acquisition activity is likely to put at least one other group into this category."
Meanwhile, back in Europe, the review says: "MAN and lveco are known to be considering acquisitions and alliances and as European truck demand (and balance sheets) improve during 2004 it would not be surprising to hear of either or both companies making a major announcement during the year."
Care to comment on that.Turin and Munich? • The seventh edition of The World's Truck Manufacturers, by Jonathan Storey, is published by Automotive World Publications and includes overviews of the global truck industry and truck demand in Western Europe; individual chapters analysing the activities of all the 'premier league" world major truck makers; plus a further round-up of the "first and second division" manufacturers.
CM readers can get The World's Truck Manufacturers at a 10% discounted price of £585 (€842) for the hard copy or £535.50 (€771.12) for the electronic version. To order call 020 7878 1039, e-mail subscriptionsOa wknowledge.com or visit www.awknowledge.com; quote order code CMM01.