Road Transport is Likely to Grow.
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PEP Report
DESPITE nationalization, "a further increase in road transport in the years to come" is foreseen as a possibility by Political and Economic Planning in a report on the commercial vehicle industry. Industrial evolution and the movement towards decentralization in physical planning are cited as reasons for this forecast.
Attention is also drawn to the important influence that the British Transport Commission and other Government agencies are likely to exert on vehicle design and the prospects of export trade.
Referring to the vital imp-et of the -Transport Act, 1947, on the commercial Vehicle industry,. PEP points Out that an impartial examination of the real cost of transporting freights of various kinds over various distances by various means "might well emphasize the cheapness of road • transport for passengers and for the carriage of goods over short distances, while favouring the railway for long-distance goods haulage.
More Light Vehicles?
" If this were so," the report continues, "the importance of light and light-medium goods vehicles, as compared with heavy lorries, might be heightened. though the heavy vehicle builders would gain from an increase in public service vehicles." • On the question of rates, PEP comments that as " the major part of the Transport Commission's assets and responsibility is and will continue to be in..the railways, the Commission may therefore find it hard to avoid approaching transport problems from the railways' point of view.'' In examining factors in future demand, the report says that publication of the Government's nationalization proposals probably contributed to the increase of C-licence vehicles in the past few years, although at the present time they formed only about the same proportion of the total commercialvehicle fleet as in 1938.
Factors Affecting Demand
Apart from the level of employment and output in Britain, the demand for road transport would be greatly affected by the nature of production and the location of new factories. Evolution of industry, decentralization in planning. the world oil supply and Britain's ability to offer suitable currency in exchange for liquid fuel were other important factors.
The demand for veh:eles since the war had been influenced by an atmosphere which in some ways • favoured expansiveness by the passing of the Transport Act. Nevertheless, says the report, " the fact that the growth of the goods fleet was almostas great in 194748 as in 1946-47L---and the expansion is the more significant because it has to compete with arrears of replacement—stolgests that under present conditions there is still -a good deal of. room for further increase.
If there were a return to pre-war rates of replacement [the average prewar life of a goods vehicle isvplaced at seven years and of a coachor bus, 10 years]. says PEP, home requirements would average Over 100,000 • goods vehicles and more than 6,000 -coaehes
A28 and buses a year, even if the growth in total numbers were halted at the point reached last August.
-This would imply an average level of registrations of new, goods vehicles higher than the pre-war peak in 1936, and 75 per cent. of the 1947 figure. It is thought, however, that even when the present acute shortage is passed. vehicles may continue to be operated for longer periods than in the 'thirties.
At the same time, the report declares that at present "the goods fleet must be regarded as over-age dven by austerity standards."
In investigating the prospects of export trade, PEP emphasizes that America has dominated the world market for commercial vehicles both before and since the war. Its production of goods vehicles in 1947 was between eight and nine times greater than the British output.
Before the war, Britlsh export trade flourished mainly within the protection of Imperial Preference,. but since that time, sales to foreign countries have accounted for a larger proportion of the greatly expanded total.
Although both before and since the war Australia and South 'Africa have taken the largest shares . of British export's. they. have made even greater purchases from the U.S.A. .
PEP says that currency conditions have, nevertheless, favoured Britain, compared with America, but when the world shortage of vehicles is eased, American exports will beeome an even More serious threat to British trade, provided that dollars are more freely available. . Germany may also again become. an important rival.
-Competition from American light and light-medium goods vehicles is
regarded a. a particularly .dangerous threat, but British heavy lorries ant buses are held to be in a stronger position, because similar vehicles are not mass-produced in the U.S.A. The Dominions, South America and other developing countries are, says PEP, likely to offer a growing demand for heavy goods vehicles.
Attention is drawn tothe effects .of BritiSh. legislation and taxation on vehicle design and the difficultiesthat they createin the production of types for certain markets. -It is thought that the B.T.C. will also exercise a powerful influence tin the nature of output, particularly of heavy goods and passenger
vehicles. The purchasing policy of the B.T.C. and other Government agencies is described as "of the utmost importance not only to the efficiency of the country's road transport system, but also to the prosperity of the export trade in motor vehicles."
Whilst drawing attention to the possible benefits of standardization, the report emphasizes that even if standard designs were selected with due regard to the export market, flexibility might be lost.
Among the conclusions reached are the following:— (a) Production at the 1948 rate is unlikely to be sustained without a much larger export trade than was secured between the wars, (h) Adequate export markets will not be easy to retain.
(e) Where possible without prejudicing road safety, the Construction and Use Regulations should be altered to help export trade.
(d) By suitably timing purchases. public bodies may be able to offset in some degree the uncertainty of export trade and increase export capacity in boom years.
Copies of the report can he obtained from Political and Economic Planning, 16, Queen Anne's Gate, London. S.W.1, at 2s. each.