Great Trading Problems Ahead
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By Harold Elliott
AS the New Year commences, and with the Transport Act of 1953 and the Transport (Disposal of Road Haulage Property) Act of 1956 behind us, it was hoped that one could, with some certainty, peer into the future and make an assessment of what 1957 might hold without too much fear that all guesses would be disturbed by conflicting political ideologies.
Now, of course, there exists an entirely new problem arising from the introduction of fuel rationing. Fortunately, there is every hope that normal supplies will be available again within a few months. In the meantime it is the particular responsibility of the road haulage industry to play its part, in collaboration with British Railways where appropriate, in ensuring that the transport requirements of trade and industry are satisfied.
Trade Barometer
Looking beyond the immediate situation, perhaps the most important factor in our crystal gazing is the level of the nation's internal and external trade and the effects upon it of the credit squeeze, the rising cost of, mainly, labour and; secondly, of imported materials; the increasing development of overseas competition, and the unsettled international situation. So far as the haulier is concerned, all these are vital to his interests, and any of the factors mentioned can alter his economic position substantially.
Although, 'internally, trade is still running at a high level and full employment is maintained, we roust face the fact that for the first time for some years our production is failing to show an advance and, in fact, in a number of trades, the trend is now in reverse. We therefore enter 1957 with great trading problems ahead of us, and I think it would be fallacious, or even unwise, for hauliers to believe that the demand for their services during this year is likely to continue even at the reduced level noticeable in the latter part of 1956.
If the somewhat gloomy picture I have painted of the national trading position _does eventually materialize, even in a minor degree, the effect upon hauliers' fleets and charges may well be disastrous, certainly to the less substantially financed concerns. It may therefore reward us to look at the extent of those fleets and try to assess the effect that a reduction in trade would have upon them.
Unfortunately, this article must be prepared before the complete statistics for 1956 are available, but on the basis of the latest estimates, the situation is illustrated in the accompanying table.
The most important factor in the variations between 1954 and 1956 is the substantial increase in the number of C-licence vehicles, of which approximately 70,000 are of over 3 tons unladen weight and, therefore, may be regarded as directly competitive with the professional haulage system upon which trade and industry are dependent. • Of the total number of vehicles currentlyemployed under all types of licence, British Road Services control approximately 16,000 and British Railways a similar number. Of these, by far the greater proportion of B.R.S. vehicles, excluding those of the Parcels and Contract Services and Pickfords, are normally engaged in their widespread network of long-distance services. The majority of British Railways vehicles are in the under 3-ton category and are mainly used for feeder, collection and distribution services for rail-borne traffic. They are not, in general, in direct competition with ' the vehicles of other road hauliers.
8,000 Surplus Vehicles?
If there were to be a reduction of 5 per cent. in the demand for transport services, I think it reasonable to suppose that C licences would be affected least of all. The main burden of the reduction would fall upon the haulier, both road and rail. By a simple calculation this reduction may well mean that something like 8,000 vehicles on A and B licences would be—or perhaps I should say, should be---to all intents and purposes superfluous.
I view with great anxiety the advent of even any slight recession of trade and the effect that that would have upon our industry, although it seems reasonable to expect that any resultant surplus labour force could well be used in productive fields.
Apart from this major factor, I would put the stabilization of rates and the need for greater adherence to statutory regulations in the forefront of the problems to be tackled in 1957. Our industry could not be on a sound footing or deserving of respect from all quarters while these matters are glossed over.
There is, of course, much the transport industry itself can do to protect itself against the worst effects of any trade recession. These efforts may well be substantially aided if the long-argued increase in the speed limit of heavy goods vehicles to 30 m.p.h. eventually results in legalizing what is now so often illegally done. The Minister's decision to make this reform on May I will be welcomed by all engaged in road haulage.
Developments in new vehicle design should increase , vehicle efficiency and carrying capacities. They should reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and should enable the driver to raise-his productivity without decreasing his earnings or increasing fatigue. The delay in settling the speed limit question must have a retarding effect upon further progress in design, particularly in the case of articulation.
The provision of adequate cost and revenue records where they do not already exist might at least indicate at an early stage margins that are becoming too fine. and thus give the operator the opportunity of avoiding the calamity that will surely fall upon him. Greater co-operation in the maintenance of economic rates would surely add to stability in the industry, and although know that this long-cherished idea has never yet found practical expression, it is one that all responsible hauliers should never lose sight of and use their utmost influence to advance. s Poor Handling Arrangements
Traders. too, can assist greatly in increasing the haulier's productivity and thereby enable him to operate more economically. Forwarding and receiving arrangements at an extensive range of industrial and commercial properties are far from adequate and often entail long delays which have, of course, to be included in the build-up of the rate of any sensible haulier.
Consultation beTween traders and hauliers regarding the times of delivery may often bring benefits. If only traders would co-operate more fully in the provision of special facilities, such as receiving or dispatching outside normal working hours, it would bring untold benefits at, I believe, little additional cost.
There are also many mechanical aids these days that can expedite the rapid movement of goods both within premises and on 10 and off vehicles. We, in B.R.S., are very active in this field, and whilst there are, in many instances, limitations, both practical and financial, on the employment of such aids, there is a vast range of traffics which could be handled by mechanical means with benefit both to the trader and the haulier.
In this connection, [must mention that, in considering these schemes, it must be the overall cost of the trader's
transport arrangements at which he must look, and not only the rate charged by the haulier. By overall costs, f mean packaging, internal handling and more efficient use of his terminal facilities, as well as the greater protection often given. to his goods by the reduction of handling involved.'
B.R.S. are developing the use of radio in the control of their collection and delivery vehicles and, in particular, in their dock working, where it has brought really substantial advantages which are increasingly reflected in improved service to the trader.
More Scientific Approach
As a large organization, we realize that we may be able to indulge in these refinements _whereas the very small haulier may not. I quote them to illustrate the point that the road haulage industry as a whole must make a much more scientific approach to its problems and methods, and thus to its responsibilities as one of the country's major industries.
I have, in this article, concentrated upon the problems that I see facing the road transport industry in particular during this coming year, and have touched upon some of the means by which the effect of those problems can be confined.
I could not, however, close without making reference to the vitally important aspect of competition from the railways, with their greatly increased freedom as regards charges and the rapid development of their long-desired modernization plan.
Increasing Rail Competition What will be the ultimate effect upon the road transport industry of greater railway efficiency and greater flexibility in railway charges I do not propose to analyse in detail, but, to all but the most obstinate of us, it must be clear that the competitive ability of British Railways is going to become an increasingly important factor as their plans become actualities. It behoves all of us to realize that when peering into the future, and to take into our calculations the ability of the "new look" railways to give an increasingly efficient service, particularly on many of the main-line routes upon which so many road hauliers dep-end for the major part of their livelihood.
In view of the potential developments, all hauliers must look closely into their operations and equipment, and see that efficiency in the former is achieved with the minimum qf the latter.