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Whether forecasting

4th February 1984
Page 61
Page 61, 4th February 1984 — Whether forecasting
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Which of the following most accurately describes the problem?

Nationalisation, a maximum gross laden capacity of 22 tons, Michelin 'Metallic' type tyres and Jowett's Bradford van — only just over 30 years separates us from them yet they seem shrouded in ancient mists. John Durant goes in search of nineteen forty 'hate'

THE INTERESTING letter from Frank Lewsey this week attempts to forecast the transport scene in 36 years' time in 2020. But what was the transport world like that number of years ago? And what sort of forecasts were made?

The January 2, 1948, edition of Commercial Motor carried an advertisement: NATIONALIZATION All you want to know about the Government's plan for the nationalization of road transport will be found in "The Operator's Guide to the Transport Act 1947," price 1s. 6d., or 1s. 8d. by post.

Copies may be obtained from the offices of "The Commercial Motor," Bowling Green Lane, London, E.C.1, or through any bookseller or bookstall.

Yes, that was the immediate worry 36 years ago. Our leading article, "Prospects for 1948," said it was possibly foolish to prophesy on the ultimate fate of particular sections of road transport, and that everyone realised that the British Transport Commission faced a stupendous ask.

On rail, it added (familiarly some things don't change that uch): "The condition of the racks and rolling stock is such hat trains are barely likely sudonly to become punctual, and hether or not there will be a etter spirit amongst the emloyees remains to be seen." It went on: "Naturally, many umours are flying about in resect of road transport. There are ome who believe that because he passenger transport side of e industry is so well organised, e temptation may be to look pon this as a nice juicy plum ady for picking by the BTC. "It must be remembered, however, that fruit in this condition is apt to go rotten soon after picking; moreover, there is little in the Transport Act concerning this side of the industry, most of it being devoted to the haulage section.

"Even in the haulage field, however, there will continue to exist," it added, "and that permanently, unless the tentacles of Government transport be spread still farther, a very large number of those engaged in short-distance work.

"Eventually they will be limited to a radius of 25 miles, but there is little doubt that for a considerable time many of those who wish to operate to longer distances will be allowed to carry on in this way, otherwise the whole system of road transport would break down.

"It is only when and if longdistance services under Government control can carry out their functions satisfactorily that the remaining free hauliers are likely to be restrained to their official bounds."

George Orwell's 7984, although soon to become famous had not yet been publicsed, otherwise there would most probably have been a reference to Big Brother here.

Our news pages reported that: • Mr G. Fl. Strauss, Minister of Supply, had crossed swords with Sir Reginald Rootes about the steel allocation to the motor industry.

• Hauliers in yarn transport were urged to arrange for the speedy return of empties to the spinning districts.

• Blackpool's transport service was seriously cut by a strike on Christmas Day.

• London Transport prepared for an "Arctic New Year" (antifreeze was to be used on a large scale for the first time).

• The American company Reo Motors introduced its Flying Cloud single-decker bus with steel-reinforced aluminium body.

Among CM's features our technical editor, in a road test, explained that the Brush 2530cwt battery-electric van could perform 40-50 miles of delivery work on one charge.

A significant bottom of the page story was headed "US users prefer articulated vehicles" what they called truck trailers. We reported that the American journal Automotive Topics claimed these artics cost 55 per cent per ton-mile less to run compared to rigids.

In those days the maximum gross laden capacity of 22 tons normally applied to an eight wheeler or four-wheeled vehicle and four-wheeled trailer.

The author of a piece on trailers, S.T.R. these days we would say he was very laid back explained: "There is an exception to this limit of gross laden weight, in the form of a regulation put into force during the war. It permittad ,he gross laden weight of a vehicle and trailer to be 32 tons. This was subject to the special proviso that both vehicie and trai!er should be fitted with poweroperated brakes. That war-time regulation has not, so far as I am aware, been rescinded, and it is, therefore, still permissible to have that gross weight on a vehicle and trailet.."

In the next issue CM led with an exclusive first details of the revolutionary Michelin "Metallic"-type tyre; and road tested the Bradford lOcwt van made by Jowett cars. "One hears of much nineteen forty hate", light-heartedly reported our gossip page with aspirations.


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