Export Target Influences
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THE raising, often by Use of Value consickrable amounts, -of the ,export targets will Exports. Introduce introduce complications .which Market of require someinvestigation. = This appliesparticularly to commercial vehicles. The preliminary guide „ for United Kingdom exporters expresses the changes in volume at the price level which existed during the fourth quarter of 1946, but as the general level of prices is rising considerably, the actual value of the exports will undoubtedly have to be considerably higher than is indicated by the present figures. Expressed in millions of pounds, the actual figure for the exports of commercial vehicles for the -fourth quarter of 1946 is 2.15; the target-for the middle of 1948 is 3.125; and for the end of that year, 4.0.
The critical factor is that consideration is apparently to be given to value alone instead of to a proportion of output. There might easily be a series of contingencies, such as strikes and shortages of materials, which would affect production; consequently, if the cash value is to be maintained, the percentage of production for export • may well rise to 100. In this event there would be little or no chance of home users obtaining new vehicles. In any case, many are bound to be disappointed. Already the home-sales order books of most commercial-motor, makers are so full that, even at present production rates, years would be needed to meet the demand.
Component Suppliers Form a ,Bottleneck One of the difficulties is that vehicle manufacturers are so dependent upon the suppliers of components. Take, for example, ball bearings. The delivery date for these is some 16 months, and requirements determined now are not likely to be met until the end of next year. The demand for the motor industry has naturally much increased and will continue to do so; but this is not the main problem. It is the fact that so many other people are using bearings in a Narietyof ways for which the producers were not prepared. Even if some of the bearings, such as the immense number used in conveyers ,: do not need to be so accurate, they 'still absorb labour and even if available, more personnel "cannot always be employed, because of housing difficulties. It is the opinion of, many industrialists that whilst • materials sufficient to meet , the majority of our urgent needs are available in this country, they. ,are, from the point of view of national interest, going in considerable quantities to the wrong people. It should always be remembered that the commercial vehicle is essentially a tool of trade. Even the private car, in comparison, is something of a lukury.
Many Vehicles in Bad Condition The condition of the units composing many of Our commercial-vehicle fleets—we might even say the majority—is drastic. Already most of them have greatly exceeded what would, before the recent war, have been considered their normal span of life. The situation might not be quite so serious if spare parts were readily available. In some cases they are, but in most instances they are not, and with the increased demand for export, the production of such parts for the home market is also bound to decline.
If transport deteriorates, production is bound to follow the same path, for the two are so greatly interdependent. We must on no account permit our industry to develop into a condition which will render futile all efforts to obtain greatly increased production in other spheres of activity. Operators cannot for ever continue with the process of make do and mend. There ii boundto come a time, and that may be much nearer than optimistic bureaucrats think, when peak loads cannot possibly be coped with successfully.
In our view, whatever the total production of business vehicles may be, and we all hope that it will rise considerably, a percentage shouldbe definitely allocated to the home market' in order to keep the wheels turning.
To achieve this and yet to obtain the required export targets, it may be essential to cut down severely in other directions which' are less essential. This applies particularly to the manufacture of components which are vital to the maintenance of output in the export vehicle factories ; only those‘needed for this purpose and for the maintenance of vital transport services:should be produced.