Recession means grim year ahead
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HAULIERS face a grim 12 months ahead, but 1982-84 should be growth years, according to the Henley Centre for Forecasting, reports BRIAN CHALMERS-HUNT.
It announced last week that any recovery from the effects of the steel strike will be short-lived, as the economy is in recession and consumer spending is stagnant. Output in many sectors of manufacturing, construction, and industry will fall, and freight transport operators should not be misled by any temporary buoyancy of demand.
The Centre says the recession will last for over a year, and the economy will not be gin to recover until the second half of next year. Recovery will be slow, but it should be sustained until the end of 1984.
Operators, it says, should prepare themselves for tough months ahead. There will be a further decline in the amount of freight moved, and the 1978 figure will not be exceeded until 1982.
The Centre predicts that drivers' earnings growth will decline in real terms to around 13 per cent in 1981, and to nine or ten per cent in subsequent years.
But it expects that diesel fuel will rise by nearly 40 per cent this year, and from 15 to 17 per cent in subsequent years.
There will be further growth in the price of commercial vehicles — still above the level for other plant and machinery — but intense competition should continue to stem the rate of increases of tyre prices.
Freight rates could rise by as much as ten per cent over the next two to three years, but the balance between supply and demand could play a part.
The Henley Centre says operators should look carefully at their rates now, while there is a demand for transport, and before the eight-hour driving day takes effect next year.