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Two of everything by2000 AD
by Janus
EVEN before the visit to Britain of Mr Ralph Nader, the general attack on road users seemed to be shifting from the heavy lorry to the motorist and the car. The main difference is that the critics see their own image behind the steering wheel, and their arguments are correspondingly ambiguous. They appear to encourage the motorist at the same time as they attack him.
Mr Nader chimed in with this mood. His basic case against the British Government —and apparently in particular Mr John Peyton, Minister for Transport Industries— is that thousands of motorists are killed or injured because of failure to compel manufacturers to fit the safety devices which are compulsory on those British cars made for export to the US. Mr Peyton was accused of "utter incapability of responding to his mission to protect British people on highways in their cars".
NO DOUBT Mr Nader would deny that he was overlooking the role of the individual as a pedestrian, and it would be unfair to suggest that he is not concerned. The significance lies in the concentration on the preservation of the motorist and of his interests at a time when in any case there are doubts whether a crowded country • such as Britain can tolerate an indefinite growth in the number and use of vehicles.
Ambiguities and contradictions must often arise within a Department of the Environment which has to balance the conflicting interests of various sections of the population. For example, the Secretary of State himself, Mr Peter Walker, recently enunciated his desire that hot water and a bathroom should be provided for every household as a matter of course.
Laudable as this may be, it could lead to objection from the conservationists of fuel and from those interests which do not want good agricultural land sacrificed in order to build more reservoirs. An official of the Thames Conservancy has recently pointed Out also that the inevitable result of providing for all water requirements by the year 2001 will be a doubling of water rates.
It is indeed a favourite statistic of the prophets that there will be twice as much of everything, both good and bad, by the end of the century. Mr John Elliott, president, Freight Transport Association, as gone one better by stating that road freight will double in only 15 years and quadruple in 30 years.
THERE is the customary ambiguity of response here. Mr Elliott himself is appropriately neutral as a user and a provider of transport. He is merely drawing attention to the need for proper planning so that vehicles and the environment need not be in conflict. Road transport is, he claims, "the life blood of the nation—of our industry; of our standard of living, of our way of life; of the existence of ourtowns and villages. We would restrict it at our peril."
Vested interests are, of course, involved. The road haulage industry naturally likes the prospect of having four times as much business. Continued expansion is welcome to the large section of the population concerned with the manufacture and maintenance of vehicles. To trade and industry, transport growth is an index of their prosperity.
It cannot be denied that there are many people who would find the forecast gloomy. It is sound policy to prepare for a rapid growth in traffic by providing satisfactory communications and by encouraging vehicle production. But, however well designed the roads may be, and whatever improvements are planned in vehicle standards, these people will still argue that there are already too many roads and too many vehicles.
THERE is an important switch of public opinion which to some extent supports this argument. In an article in (of all places!) the Financial Times, Mr Joe Rogaly has described as out-of-date the theory that a high rate of growth of the gross national product is the unchallenged ideal. "Growth for its own sake," he says, "is no longer seen by reasonable men as a desirable objective of good government: the new thinking (in the US as much as over here) suggests that the acquisition of further wealth by Western man for use in his own societies, can only be justified, if (a) the worst effects of uninhibited growth, in environmental and social terms, are avoided and (b) the purpose of the growth is understood and desired."
The example given by Mr Rogaly is the demise of America's supersonic aircraft "at a considerable cost in terms of putative growth of the country's GNP". There are many people who would find no difficulty in providing another example at home from within the road transport industry.
The debate on growth which now seems to be opening out comes at a time when vehicle manufacturers are reporting a falling demand, especially for lorries in the medium range. The decline in home sales of vehicles with a gross weight of over 3 tons from 97,168 in 1969 to 93,490 last year had already prompted a forecast of a further drop, probably below 90,000, in 1971. Already this is considered too optimistic. The manufacturers will be counting themselves lucky if the figure stays above 70,000.
The trend this year is said to reflect the decline in business reported from most sections of road haulage. Operators have been complaining about this for at least six months. Past experience has shown that fluctuations in goods traffic are often reliable indications of what is happening in industry generally.
Nothing in this kind of story is simple. The official statistics, which are inevitably several months behind, so far give no inkling of a fall in traffic, although this may show up on the charts in due course. Operators are not all equally affected. For some of them the situation is still buoyant, while others report a decline which seems to be much steeper than the overall picture would warrant.
SOME other factor may be at work. Introduction of a standard operator's licence must have resulted in some redistribution of traffic, as the own-account operator comes to realize that he has the new right to carry for hire or reward. Official evidence will never be provided to show what is happening on this confused middle ground where hauliers are competing with their customers. The DoE statistics for 1969 were able to record for the last time separate estimates of the tonnage carried and the ton mileage covered by public haulage and C-licence holders. In future, only the totals will be recorded.
These will still make possible a comparison between one year and another and this will be supplemented by the number of vehicles, distinguished, one may hope, according to whether they are specified on an operator's licence or merely authorized as a margin for the future. On this point again, it is reported that many operators are not only ignoring their margins but are taking some of their vehicles off the road and even disposing of them for lack of demand.
THER factors will affect the general comparison. Stricter standards of maintenance and operation, coupled with other problems such as the shortage of drivers, may have helped persuade many operators not to expand, and sometimes even to contract. their fleet.
One small consolation, if it can be regarded as such, is to be found in the improvement in public opinion of road transport. In many quarters the fact has at last penetrated that a continued rapid increase in the car population is not matched in road transport, although the rate of increase in the number of heavy lorries is relatively faster. Next time the turn of events brings the heavy lorry to public notice, there may be greater sympathy than before for the road transport case.