Solution to What?
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FIVE years or more ago the Socialists were asserting that the days for public and private inquiries into transport were past and that the answers to all the problems had been found. Now they suggest that, by proposing to alter the Transport Act, the Government is throwing away the philosopher's stone: I have never felt disposed to share their mathematically optimistic point of view. It has seemed, and still seems, that, so far from the solution being known, nobody has yet been able to put the problem into acceptable words.
The most likely source for such a definition Would be the Ivory Tower. It may not be able at the present time to issue statements of policy, but it can at least try to decipher and comment upon the lessons of history: Several excursions along these lines have, in fact, been made recently, and in the process representatives of the British Transport Commission and of its Executives have recorded their opinion of the substance of the transport problem. Mr. G. W. Quick Smith, for example, has described in these terms the most important of his Executive's tasks: ",The rationalization of operations for the purpose of ensuring that traffic is moved speedily ana efficiently with the smallest number of vehicles running the least number of miles."
From the point of view of the Executive, this may be an excellent aim, but it is unlikely to satisfy more than a few customers. During the war, the Milk Marketing Board rationalized the collection of milk from farms; and the .scheme devised for that purpose is still in operation. Although the gallonage fluctuates, the traffic : is regular and the job takes about the same amount of time every day. There may be one or two other commodities in respect of which the transport requirements are similar, Inevitable Assumption Behind Mr. Quick Smith's definition lies the assump-. tion that the country's transport system, taken as a whole, can be treated in the same way. The assumption is almost inevitable once it has been decided to amalgamate the country's transport into one organization. In effect, the assumption has not been proved. The transport of goods cannot be made to conform to such a simple formula as Mr. Quick Smith has devised. The prevalence of the C-licence adds point to the conclusion that the trader, however irrational it may seem to the expert, wants to decide for himself who will carry his goods and even how they will be carried. It is not without significance that the scheme for collecting farm milk has been imposed by the customer upon the carriers, rather than the other way round.
In a discussion not limited to one form of transport,
Mr. A. B. B. Valentine has propounded a definition of the problem not unlike that of Mr. Quick Smith. In Mr. Valentine's view, the prime objective of those who have to determine the structure and organization of inland transport is the best transport service for a given total expenditure, or a given standard for the lowest total cost. The only big way of reducing the cost of transport to the nation is to thin out the total supply of transport facilities and adjust them more closely to demand.
Read this through once or twice, and it will appear to be self-evident. Unfortunately, it cannot be so easily B16 applied to the present situation. It is an excellent definition, but not of the transport problem,. • To be of any use; the tern-is. of 'an equation must be agreed, but in Mr. Valentine's equation there are not enough constanti.
In particular, the demand for transport varies. In times of emergency it may change dramatically. During the war road transport was frequently called upon, at almost a moment's notice to take over work normally handled by the railways, and the transpart needs in different parts of the country augmented or declined according to changes in the military situation. At other times the change is less abrupt, but it is continuous. New industries and industrial centres are created, old industries decline, and the population shifts in sympathy with these and other trends.
As with other services and commodities, the supply of transport stimulates the demand. Until the coming of the railways, long journeys were taken only on rare occasions. The town dweller who now visits the seaside most week-ends would have been lucky to get there once a year, and the suburbanite would have taken the whole day to get to and from his place of work. Road transport spread the advantages of speed even farther, and made possiblethe quick delivery of perishable goods to every household.
Drawbacks and Benefits From some points of view, it might be better if horsepower were still literally the unit of transport. Progress has its drawbacks as well as its benefits. But there is no use in trying to call a halt to the process. The demand will become more and more exacting and will stimulate new ideas and new developments, which, in turn, will encourage further demands. The impression left by both Mr. Quick Smith and Mr. Valentine is that this is a vicious circle which should somehow or other be broken, and that any complicating factor, such-as the rapid growth of air transport, would be a disaster.
The paradox of which they both seem unaware is that their proposals might in the end mean putting on the ration something that is too plentiful. They would presumably advocate much the same course if there happened to be a dearth of transport. It is fair to acknowledge that a service is not the same as a commodity, and that it may therefore be governed by different economic laws. In spite of this, there is much to.be said for an attitude of mind which, before everything else, aims to sell transport to the customer. While the C-licence holder, the private car and the aeroplane remain outside the control of the Commis. sion, there cannot be a complete transport monopoly. As Mr. Valentine rightly says, however, the main issue at the present time is not between nationalization and private ownership, but between monopoly and competition. Conipetition encourages the provider of transport to go after the traffic. The monopolizer is tempted to Sit back and wait for it. To some extent this may be justified. Some traffics are regular. and assured. On
the other hand, the danger that a state monopoly will become fossilized is sufficient excuse for the Government's decision to set at least one side of the industry free.